O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 6

Oct 08, 2025

Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 6 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
5	LAR	BAL	31	26
1	DEN	NYJ	23	22
6	SF	TB	25	19
10	WAS	CHI	26	16
3	IND	ARI	18	15
14	GB	CIN	29	15
8	KC	DET	20	12
24	CAR	DAL	32	8
4	DET	KC	12	8
16	NE	NO	24	8
26	LAC	MIA	30	4
11	TB	SF	15	4
23	CHI	WAS	27	4
12	JAX	SEA	14	2
2	BUF	ATL	3	1
18	ARI	IND	19	1
21	SEA	JAX	22	1
27	CLE	PIT	28	1
9	ATL	BUF	9	0
31	HOU	BYE	31	0
19	MIN	BYE	19	0
13	DAL	CAR	13	0
7	PHI	NYG	7	0
17	BAL	LAR	16	-1
22	NO	NE	21	-1
15	PIT	CLE	8	-7
20	NYJ	DEN	5	-15
32	CIN	GB	17	-15
29	MIA	LAC	11	-18
28	TEN	LVR	6	-22
25	NYG	PHI	2	-23
30	LVR	TEN	4	-26

Rams @ Ravens

The Rams' offense may have come short in their surprising defeat at the hands of a beat-up 49ers team, but you wouldn’t have been able to tell by looking at the fantasy box scores. Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and even Kyren Williams broke double-digit targets while Matthew Stafford threw for nearly 400 yards on a whopping 48 dropbacks. They may not need to take to the air quite that often against the Cooper Rush-led Baltimore Ravens, but they’ll find themselves against an even more banged-up defense that could be without Roquan Smith, Marlon Humphrey, Chidobe Awuzie, and Kyle Hamilton.

Due in large part to these injuries, the Ravens have managed the fifth-lowest pressure rate (28.0%), a number that appears even worse (22.4%) when considering only the last two weeks. In last Sunday’s matchup, they forced only 11 pressures against a Texans offensive line that —to that point— had surrendered the seventh-highest pass rate over expected (13.0%) while allowing C.J. Stroud to complete 85.2% of his passes.

This is an easy “play the hits” scenario with Nacua/Adams/Kyren, and Stafford is once again in the low-end QB1/streaming category.

Broncos @ Jets

The positive carryovers from the Denver Broncos' offensive line have remained strong through the first five games of the season, and though the fantasy points have (mostly) been there for Bo Nix, we’re still waiting on him to recapture his efficiency from the back half of 2024. From Week 8 through the end of the season, Nix was in the top-10 conversation in both on-target (77.4%) and completion rate (69.7%), with a healthy 7.37 YPA. Those respective numbers have dropped to 72.4%, 64.8%, and 6.27 through our first five games here, even with him dropping the hammer on a lowly Bengals defense back in Week 4.

Luckily, the Jets defense sets up as a nice pivot point to replicate that Bengals matchup and those final ten ‘24 games, as everyone outside of Sauce Gardner should be easy pickings. The New York Jets' secondary has allowed the league’s highest EPA per dropback while allowing 61.5% of its passing yardage after the catch, the second-highest rate. This opens the door for an ancillary piece outside of Courtland Sutton (Troy Franklin/Marvin Mims/Evan Engram) to find themselves in a startable situation. Franklin is probably the best bet here, making him an interesting deeper-league play as a WR4.

Commanders vs. Bears

Containing Jayden Daniels is always a feat for any defense, but the Chicago Bears will have to hope that they’ve made some bye-week improvements if they’re looking to not only put heat on the quarterback, but also capitalize when they do so. The Bears headed into their bye ranked 26th in pressure rate (29.5%) while allowing a league-high 72.2% completion percentage to quarterbacks operating outside the pocket. That combination, with the added bonus of allowing the most yards per scramble (11.5) through four games, can help to explain why they rank 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position. And that’s with two of the opposing quarterbacks being J.J. McCarthy and Geno Smith, who have both looked like they’re playing out of their element to varying degrees.

Whether or not Terry McLaurin returns in Week 6, Daniels and Deebo Samuel should be locked into must-start territory in all formats, while Luke McCaffrey is an interesting WR4 play should McLaurin not suit up.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Titans @ Raiders

The only chance the Raiders had of having a league-average offensive line this season went out the window when they were forced to place LT Kolton Miller on injured reserve, and the cracks have shown immediately. Replacement tackle Stone Forsythe had a rough go of it in his first game as a starter, notching a 93.9 pass-blocking efficiency rate, a number that would rank 65th if extrapolated over the season, allowing one of the four sacks Geno Smith took.

Smith has now taken the third-most sacks (16) while leading the league with ten turnover-worthy plays. Adding fuel to the fire, Las Vegas also ranks 30th in RB yards before contact (0.85), forcing them into the third-highest stuff rate (46.7%) in short-yardage situations.

Browns @ Steelers

The Steelers' offensive line has looked better than I would have expected against some tough defenses through the initial month of the season, but they’re set up to be met with a hammer coming out of their bye. Left tackle Broderick Jones, in particular, is set to have a hell of a battle against Myles Garrett. Jones has already allowed four sacks on the season, while the immobile Aaron Rodgers has a 47.8% on-target rate when pressured, the lowest mark among all quarterbacks not named Russell Wilson.

How much of a fight the Browns’ offense can put up is definitely in question, but in a game with a 37.5-point total, we could be in for a low-scoring, defense-happy slog.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
5	LAR	BAL	31	26
3	IND	ARI	23	20
7	PHI	NYG	27	20
10	WAS	CHI	28	18
4	DET	KC	22	18
9	ATL	BUF	24	15
14	GB	CIN	29	15
1	DEN	NYJ	16	15
24	CAR	DAL	30	6
6	SF	TB	12	6
20	NYJ	DEN	25	5
8	KC	DET	13	5
11	TB	SF	15	4
30	LVR	TEN	32	2
2	BUF	ATL	2	0
31	HOU	BYE	31	0
19	MIN	BYE	19	0
26	LAC	MIA	26	0
21	SEA	JAX	19	-2
16	NE	NO	14	-2
12	JAX	SEA	10	-2
13	DAL	CAR	7	-6
25	NYG	PHI	18	-7
28	TEN	LVR	20	-8
18	ARI	IND	9	-9
27	CLE	PIT	17	-10
15	PIT	CLE	3	-12
17	BAL	LAR	4	-13
23	CHI	WAS	8	-15
22	NO	NE	5	-17
29	MIA	LAC	6	-23
32	CIN	GB	1	-31

Colts vs. Cardinals

Yes, you should play Jonathan Taylor this week. The Colts are currently 7.5-point favorites, and that’s before taking into account that Kyler Murray is questionable to play in this game, which would push the total even further in Indy’s favor. The Cardinals' run defense has been fairly strong this season, but the Colts lead the league in rush EPA per play and could easily cruise to victory on yet another top-3 fantasy performance out of JT.

Lions @ Chiefs

With the Detroit Lions jumping out to a 28-3 lead in the second half of Week 5, Jahmyr Gibbs’ odds for a big game were put on hold, leaving him with only two touches in the last 25 minutes of game time. Things should look a little different this week against a Chiefs defense that ranks top-10 against the pass yet bottom-3 against the run. There’s the potential for Taylor Decker to be sidelined once again, but Detroit still ranks 10th in adjusted line yards (4.58) and fifth in RB yards before contact (1.90). This is likely to be more of a “Gibbs” week, but David Montgomery is still in low-end RB2 consideration.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: