Week 11 Breakout Player Model: Top Contrarian NFL DFS Plays

Nov 18, 2022
Week 11 DFS Breakout Model: Top Contrarian Plays

One of the biggest advantages you can deploy in daily fantasy is buying low on a player who has fallen out of favor with the rest of the field but is set up for a smash week. The 4for4 Player Stat Explorer is home to a model that compares a fantasy player's actual fantasy output with their expected fantasy output, based on their usage and historical data. The goal is to highlight players that have had the requisite usage (snaps, targets, air yards, etc) to produce big fantasy outcomes, but due to the natural variance of the sport have yet to do so. Many times, those underperforming players will be low-owned in DFS and make for fantastic contrarian plays, which this article will highlight.

More Week 11 DFS Strategy: Cash Game Breakdown | GPP Breakdown | Daigle’s Top Values and Picks | WR/CB Matchups

Fantasy Points Over Expectation, Weeks 8–10
Player Team Position Fantasy Points Expected FP FP over Expectation
Josh Reynolds DET WR 3.4 14.3 -10.9
Elijah Mitchell SF RB 9.8 18.3 -8.5
Marcus Johnson NYG WR 1.3 8.8 -7.5
Deebo Samuel SF WR 7.1 13.7 -6.6
Tre McKitty LAC TE 5.1 11.4 -6.3
Tyrie Cleveland DEN WR 0.0 6.1 -6.1
Kyle Pitts ATL TE 9.5 15.2 -5.7
Diontae Johnson PIT WR 9.4 14.9 -5.5
Tom Brady TB QB 16.5 21.7 -5.1
Robbie Anderson ARI WR 0.3 5.4 -5.1
K.J. Osborn MIN WR 5.5 10.4 -4.9
Jarrett Stidham LV QB 2.9 7.6 -4.7
Keelan Cole LV WR 2.5 7.1 -4.6
Kenny Pickett PIT QB 14.3 18.9 -4.6
Pharaoh Brown CLE TE 3.3 7.8 -4.5
Demarcus Robinson BAL WR 7.3 11.8 -4.5
Drake London ATL WR 8.7 13.2 -4.5
Logan Thomas WAS TE 1.6 6.1 -4.5
Justin Herbert LAC QB 13.1 17.5 -4.4
Courtland Sutton DEN WR 7.5 11.7 -4.3
Kirk Cousins MIN QB 19.8 23.9 -4.1
Velus Jones CHI WR 4.8 8.8 -4.0
Ben Skowronek LA WR 1.8 5.8 -4.0
Jelani Woods IND TE 1.2 5.0 -3.8
Tyquan Thornton NE WR 1.9 5.7 -3.8
Mike Evans TB WR 12.6 16.3 -3.7
Mack Hollins LV WR 7.0 10.6 -3.6

TE Kyle Pitts, Falcons ($5,800 FD/$4,800 DK)

For all the complaining about the lack of passing game attention the Falcons are showing Pitts and Drake London, Mariota has targeted Pitts 24 times in the last three games. Only one of those games did Pitts eclipse five fantasy points, hence the breakout model ranking. Pitts is getting the requisite workload to have real fantasy value, especially at his price tag on both sites. He has a 16.7-yard average depth of target and a 40% share of the team’s air yards. The Bears have been solid against the tight end and they are a run funnel. Pitts is excellent leverage off a Falcons run game that looks like it is set up for success against the Bears. Fire Pitts up on the bring back of your Fields’ stacks to capture some of those expected fantasy points. You can only keep a man seeing eight targets per game down for so long.

QB Kenny Pickett, Steelers ($6,900 FD/$5,800 DK)

This Bengals/Steelers game could be a sneaky shootout. The Steelers defense is healthy and just shut down the Saints and the Bengals offense will again be without Ja'marr Chase. However, if there were a game on the schedule that could go over their total by a touchdown or two, it's this one. Pickett has been slinging the rock, and though it hasn't resulted in big fantasy games, the Bengals pushing the Steelers to keep pace in this game may be what Pickett needs to turn in a true ceiling game.

I can see him going over 40 attempts in this game due to the game script—when he goes over 40 attempts he's averaged 285 yards per game. The sneakiest part of Pickett's game has been his running though. In the last three games, he's added almost six fantasy points per game with his legs. Put it all together and hope he falls on the good side of touchdown variance and we could have a ceiling game.

WR Courtland Sutton, Broncos ($7,000 FD/$3,500 DK)

The stars may be aligning for Courtland Sutton to have a smash week. He gets to lock up with the Raiders, who've been more than susceptible through the air. They allow the eighth-most passing yards per game. Jerry Jeudy also looks like he won't suit up. Even if he does, it won't be with the same effectiveness. Most important though is Sutton's usage, especially last week after Jeudy went down.

Russell Wilson fed Sutton 11 targets that resulted in a 6/66 line. Over the last few weeks, Sutton has 24 targets, but only 18 fantasy points to show for it. I expect Sutton to be the focal point of the passing attack once again. This is a great chance for Sutton to turn that unrealized usage into some actual fantasy points.

WR Mack Hollins, Raiders ($5,400 FD/$4,500 DK)

Hollins was overshadowed last week by Donovan Peoples-Jones who came in as the uber cash game chalk and ended up panning out. With Hunter Renfrow on injured reserve, Hollins should start to see an uptick in opportunity. Over the last three weeks, he has a pretty impressive 15-yard average depth of target. Despite that indicating he's not Renfrow's replacement, there are some targets to go around and he's getting the opportunity to haul in deep passes.

Hollins' recent stats include six targets per game and nearly a 30% share of the Raiders' air yards. It makes sense that the Broncos would use Patrick Surtain on Adams, which could invite more targets Hollins' way. We don't definitively know the Broncos' game plan for Adams, but it's certainly a possibility. I like Hollins as a cheap option.

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