8 Dynasty Risers and Fallers (May 2022)
The 2022 NFL Draft is in the books, though more than a week later, the reverberations are still being felt around the dynasty community. It is difficult to find a dynasty-relevant player around the league who did not see their value impacted by the events of the NFL Draft, but with so many picks made and even some trades pulled off, some were felt more than others.
At Dynasty League Football, we produce monthly dynasty ADP data year-round. In addition to the obvious benefit this information can provide during a dynasty startup draft, I also find it very helpful in tracking player value month to month.
Using our May (post-NFL Draft) data, I’ve identified some of the players whose value changed the most as a result of the happenings in Las Vegas last week. For this first installment, I’ll focus on the players being drafted in the all-important first four rounds. These players are the cornerstones of your dynasty team but they are not without fault or worry. Here are the top risers and fallers from the top-50 dynasty startup picks.
Rashod Bateman, WR BAL
The Ravens pulled off the first stunner of the night, trading away their top wide receiver Marquise Brown along with a third-round pick in exchange for an additional first-rounder. The move left second-year man Rashod Bateman as the clear WR1 in the Ravens offense.
Surprisingly, Baltimore did not draft a wideout with any of their eleven selections. Not only is Bateman the presumed top option, he faces little competition. Behind him on the depth chart are unproven players like Devin Duvernay, James Proche, and Tylan Wallace. Even with multiple signals that the Ravens want to return to a run-heavy offense, Bateman’s expected target share alone would make him a fantasy starter. As a result of these moves, Bateman’s dynasty ADP soared up over 30 spots since last month, making him the WR20 and a fourth-round startup pick.
Drake London, WR ATL
It is very common to find rookies listed among the top post-Draft risers. After all, the NFL Draft gives us two of the most important pieces of the puzzle when determining player value, draft capital and landing spot. Both of those were positive for Drake London, the rookie receiver from USC. London was the first receiver drafted from this talented crop, being selected by the Falcons with the eighth overall pick in the first round. With Calvin Ridley suspended for the season and Julio Jones long gone, the wide receiver cupboard is bare in Atlanta. Prior to London being drafted, WR4 types like Olamide Zaccheaus and Auden Tate were being penciled in as starters. London will join sophomore tight end Kyle Pitts as target hogs on a team that is sure to be trailing and throwing all season long. London’s dynasty ADP jumped over two full rounds. He’s now a mid-third-round startup pick and the WR15.
David Montgomery, RB CHI
The Bears have so many needs, entering the Draft with one of the worst rosters in the league. The one position they felt most comfortable with was running back with both David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert producing. Surprisingly, the Bears did little to help their young quarterback Justin Fields, avoiding offensive line help until Day Three and over-drafting wide receiver Velus Jones, one of the oldest wideouts in the class. While seemingly unwise, these moves show the Bears will essentially “run it back” in 2022, leaning heavily on Montgomery. Despite missing four games, Montgomery finished as the RB21, averaging 15 fantasy points per game. His dynasty startup ADP climbed 17 spots, where he now sits as a mid-fourth round pick.
Treylon Burks, WR TEN
Another rookie receiver moving up the board following the NFL Draft is Treylon Burks, who is now the WR16 and a third-round selection. Burks was the final receiver selected in the first round of the NFL Draft but that hasn’t hurt his value. Burks was viewed by many as the top rookie receiver entering the draft and he’ll now be the top receiver for the Titans. Tennessee made the biggest move of the night when they dealt A.J. Brown to the Eagles in exchange for a first-round pick. The Titans then used that pick to select Burks. Although Tennessee will continue to focus their offense around running back Derrick Henry, Burks and veteran Robert Woods are really the only options in the passing offense.
Elijah Moore, WR NYJ
According to most, the New York Jets were the big winners of the NFL Draft, adding Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, among others. A year ago, the Jets hit on Elijah Moore and Michael Carter but that didn’t stop them from continuing to focus on improving those positions. While Carter is likely the biggest dynasty loser of the draft weekend (more on him next week) Moore’s value has also taken a hit. After he flashed as a rookie, which included three WR1 games despite only suiting up for eleven games, Moore’s value has been steadily moving up. Moore’s ADP reached a peak at 35 overall and WR16. Now, with Wilson to contend with, not to mention an upgraded running game, Moore’s ADP has slid more than a full round. He’s the WR23 and barely hanging on to a top-50 spot.
Josh Allen, QB BUF
So, this one is a bit confusing. Josh Allen, who has been the dynasty QB1 for several months now, saw his startup ADP drop by a full round following the NFL Draft. He remains the first signal caller drafted but is now a late-third round selection. There was some pre-draft chatter that Buffalo would spend their first-round pick on either Breece Hall or help at the receiver position. Instead, they opted for help in the defensive backfield. The Bills did add pass-catching back James Cook on Day Two and ended the slide for Khalil Shakir in the fifth round. None of that should hurt Allen’s value at all. I’m chalking this up to a draft fluke.
Antonio Gibson, RB WAS
Okay, this one wasn’t much of a surprise, but it still stings. The Washington Commanders have been active all offseason in the running back market. After nearly losing veteran pass-catcher J.D. McKissic to the Bills, Washington somehow convinced him to stay. They followed that by aggressively courting rookie backs, visiting with more on top-30 visits than any other team in the league. Washington then used their third-round pick to add former Alabama RB Brian Robinson. All of this spells bad news for Gibson. Entering the 2021 season, Gibson’s dynasty ADP had climbed all the way into the late first-round range. Now two years into his career, the Commanders seemingly have no interest in making Gibson a workhorse back. Already receiving little work in the passing game, Gibson could lose short-yardage touches to the rookie. Head coach Ron Rivera has already compared Gibson and Robinson to the duo he coached in Carolina, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.
Travis Etienne, RB JAC
This is another value loss that is a little surprising and honestly confusing. The Jaguars made no significant moves on offense on Draft weekend, adding a third-round center and Day Three running back. Yet, Etienne fell nearly a full round since April’s dynasty ADP, now a late-fourth round pick and the RB19. There are currently five rookies being drafted ahead of Etienne and that value gain for those players may have played a role in pushing down the ADP of Etienne, and others in that same range.
Next week, we’ll take a look at the dynasty risers and fallers currently being drafted in the middle rounds.