TL;DR Week 5

Oct 08, 2021
TL;DR Week 5

It's no secret we produce a ton of weekly data-driven, actionable fantasy football content designed to help you win your weekly matchup or cash your DFS lineups and bets. We also know not everybody has the time to read thousands upon thousands of words every week. With that in mind, this weekly TL;DR column is meant to highlight a few can't miss stats, facts, or analyses, broken down by category (season-long, DFS, betting), to aid in your weekly research prep.

TL;DR Season-Long Week 5

  • In two games, Beckham has yet to play on more than 79% of team snaps, and yet he's seen 16 total targets, by far the highest on the team, and currently ranks top five in air yards share and average depth of target. (Full Article)
  • Kenneth Gainwell is cutting into Miles Sanders' workload and severely capping his weekly ceiling. The rookie running back currently has a 35% snap share on the season and is averaging 4.5 targets per game this year. On the other hand, Sanders has yet to eclipse a 70% snap share in a single game (64% snap share on the year), and though his 3.5 targets per game are solid, earning more would uncork his potential. (Full Article)
  • Darnell Mooney saw 118 air yards (and 125 real yards) in Week 4, a big step up from his average (53) in the first three weeks. He also out-targeted Allen Robinson by a 7-to-3 margin. (Full Article)
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire's snap share and running back rush share has dropped each week this season, and fullback/halfback hybrid Darrel Williams vultured 100% of the KC goal-line looks in Week 4. (Full Article)

All Week 5 Season-Long Content.

TL;DR DFS Week 5

  • Also mispriced relative to his usage is James Robinson ($6,000). He is averaging under 16 touches per game for the year but that average jumps to 18 over the last three games, where he has seen at least 72% of backfield touches in each of those contests. His 4.3 target average is respectable but it could spike if he takes over some of the shorter targets that have been allocated to Laviska Shenault while Shenault takes on deeper routes for the injured D.J. Chark. (Full Article)
  • Henry Ruggs is the definition of boom or bust with his big-play potential. He's producing an average depth of target (aDOT) of 17.8 & leads Vegas WRs in market share of air yards (29%). He's getting consistent targets in the offense, as he's had at least five targets in all four games. He's also coming off a week where he had a season-high snap rate (80.7%). The matchup opposite Kindle Vildor plays right into Ruggs's strengths. (Full Article)
  • Without Jaire Alexander, Tee Higgins potentially returning, and a lot of passing volume with Joe Mixon possibly missing this game, Joe Burrow is one of my favorite quarterbacks this week. As I said before, the Packers have given up touchdowns on the deep ball, and Ja'Marr Chase has been the favorite deep target of Burrow this year, receiving eight targets on 20+ yard throws. (Full Article)
  • DFS players have been infatuated with the double stack and bring back but it actually hurts them when stacking the Eagles. Hurts gets so many fantasy points with his legs that he often doesn't bring along two pass-catchers even when he hits his ceiling. Hurts is averaging 56 yards on the ground—couple that with DeVonta Smith's near 50% share of air yards and you are scooping a huge percentage of the Eagles' potential fantasy production with just those two players. (Full Article)

All Week 5 DFS Content.

TL;DR Betting Week 5

  • Just because Denver has played a light schedule doesn’t mean the defense isn’t legitimate. That unit ranks second in points allowed (12.3) per game, fourth in total yards (267.8), sixth in passing yards allowed (197.8) and fifth in rushing yards allowed (70.0). I don’t see how the Steelers move the ball on Sunday. (Full Article)
  • The Chiefs have allowed 31.3 points per game this season. They make up for it with their top-ranked offense by DVOA, but the Bills have DVOA’s top-ranked defense. Furthermore, all evidence points to Buffalo carving up Kansas City’s defense (because everyone carves up their defense—it ranks worst in the league through four weeks). (Full Article)
  • Dallas is 19th in the league with only 12 pass plays of 15+ yards on the season, a surprisingly low number considering the depth of weapons Dallas runs out at all skill positions. That number will go up this week against a Giants defense battling injuries that ranks 27th in both defensive DVOA and EPA per play allowed on the year. (Full Article)
  • Jalen Hurts has eclipsed the 30.5-attempt mark in three of four games this season and we have him projected for nearly 35 attempts this week. Though Hurts is always a threat to run the ball, if he had thrown the ball on every dropback this year he would have hit this mark in every game, and he's averaging 43 total dropbacks per game. The bonus here is that we don't need Hurts to be efficient with his attempts, he just needs to pass it enough and we get there. (Full Article)

All Week 5 Betting Content.

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