Game Flowbotics: Week 5 Picks Against the Spread
Four weeks down, 14 to go in the regular season. Here in Week 5, we’re getting to the sweet spot where we can more easily identify the teams we understand best—teams with the knack for covering that we want to ride, as well as faulty teams we love to consistently fade. At the same time, the bookmakers setting the lines are also paying attention, so we can’t get complacent.
The nice thing about using the Game Flowbotics spreadsheet as my starting point for picking games against the spread is it doesn’t care about the bookmakers’ biases or my own. The sheet’s efficiency and pace stats from Football Outsiders aren’t perfect predictors (not even close after only four weeks), but at least they’re rooted in fact. If I can’t contextualize those numbers against other known information to pick more winners than losers, it’s on me to refine my process and improve my utilization of the data. I’m hoping last week’s turnaround is a step along that path in 2021, but it’s always a challenge to stay on top of player news and ahead of public perceptions in search of profitable plays.
Accountability
I went 6-3 with last week’s picks for a gain of 3.66 units. After a rough couple of weeks prior, my year-to-date record has bounced back to 19-19, but I’m still down 2.04 units overall. Regardless, I’m moving back in the right direction and hoping to keep it going in Week 5 and beyond.
Week 5 Game Flowbotics
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Here’s this week’s worksheet:
For background on Game Flowbotics and information on how to use the spreadsheet, check out my first article in this series and the Game Flowbotics primer.
As always, this tool is not a model. It isn’t going to tell us who to pick. Instead, it’s a visualization resource to help us gather information and compare opposing forces in NFL matchups. It’s up to us to translate those considerations into picks on our own. With that in mind, let’s get to my favorite angles this week.
Week 5 Best Bets
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
This is a contest between two top-five offenses, and the 54.5-point total tells us to expect a lot of passing. With that in mind, it makes sense to key in on the Adjusted Sack Rate matchups in the trenches. On one side, we have the Rams' top-ranked pass blocking against Seattle’s 24th-ranked pass rush. On the other side, the Seahawks’ 28th-ranked blockers are facing a 13th-ranked defensive front headlined by Aaron Donald. Pass blocking matters more for a pocket passer like Matthew Stafford than it does for Russell Wilson, but the O-line vs. D-line discrepancies between these teams also carry over to the running game. At a base level, the Seahawks might appear to be playing uphill both ways in this matchup. That doesn’t bode well, especially when considering their 27th-ranked pass defense against an aerial attack from the Rams that seemingly does whatever it wants.
Seattle’s fifth-versus-22nd advantage with their rushing offense is nice but might not matter if their pass defense puts them in game script hell (or if Chris Carson isn’t 100%). Maybe home field skews the perspective and shows the Seahawks a way out of this corner, but the matchup stats back up the line movement we’ve already seen. In the end, the Rams laying anything less than a field goal is appealing.
Pick: LAR (-1) -110 on DraftKings, risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit, bet up to LAR (-3).
Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati almost got embarrassed by the Jaguars last week on Thursday Night Football. Thankfully, it seemed like a necessary wake-up call for the Bengals to stop babying Joe Burrow, and now they’ve had extra days to prepare for this week’s tilt against Green Bay. Despite these stars seemingly aligning for the Bengals, I like the Packers as a road favorite now that the line has lost the half-point hook and landed on three.
After a rough opening game, Aaron Rodgers and company have relaxed and taken care of business, especially against the two bad teams they’ve faced, beating Detroit by 18 in Week 2 and Pittsburgh by 10 last week. Maybe the Bengals aren’t as bad as those other two teams, but they are merely average according to overall DAVE (which combines DVOA with preseason projections), while the Packers rank seventh. Focus deeper and you’ll also see a disparity between the complete offenses in this matchup. Green Bay combines an above-average offensive line with Rodgers to rank eighth in offensive DVOA and fourth in offensive DAVE. Cincinnati ranks 20th in both those metrics. Is it cliche to say the Bengals are paper tigers? Does framing them as such in a question make the cliche any more tolerable? Should we just move on?
Pick: GB (-3) -110 on DraftKings/FanDuel/PointsBet/Caesars, risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
The stats on the Game Flowbotics spreadsheet favor Dallas pretty much across the board. The Cowboys are top-five overall—whether preseason projections are included or not—with a top-six offense, the fifth-ranked passing offense and the top-ranked rushing offense. They’re above average on defense too, ranking ninth against the pass and 19th against the run. Check out the spreadsheet to see where New York ranks in all those stats. Needless to say, they’re well behind Dallas everywhere. The only big-picture advantage the Giants have is on special teams, where they rank seventh compared to the Cowboys at 17th. Maybe the efficiency stats for kicking and returns deserve inclusion on the Flowbotics page, but I don’t think that phase of the game can easily swing a gross mismatch like this one.
With the game in Dallas, I expected a larger spread, so having to lay only a touchdown feels like a gift. I could look this horse in the mouth for signs of a potential backdoor cover, but this is ultimately a perfect confluence of a bad team I like to bet against versus a good team I like to bet on, so I’m just hopping on and riding with the Cowboys. Giddyup.
Pick: DAL (-7) -105 at PointsBet, risk 1.05 units to win 1 unit.
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
Maybe you’re sensing a theme from this week’s best bets, but here’s another case where I simply see the favorite as a better squad in general, and similar to Cowboys-Giants above, the imbalance in this game is stark. Baltimore is a top-six team overall, while Indianapolis ranks 23rd in both DVOA and DAVE. The Ravens have a better offense, a better defense, and, because I’ve already brought it up once, they’re better on special teams.
The chances for the Colts really come down to whether you believe their defense is an above-average unit, as regarded by DAVE (where they rank 11th), or a below-average unit, as shown in their four-game DVOA ranking (21st). In this specific matchup, one could embrace the narrative that Indy’s pass-funnel defense isn’t as much of an issue against a run-centric team like Baltimore. But the Ravens have an atypical sort of rushing prowess thanks to Lamar Jackson’s brilliance, and the threat of Jackson as a runner makes those pass-funnel flaws in Indy’s secondary even more of a liability. One way or another, the Ravens' offense should put up their fair share of points. Betting against Carson Wentz on the other side of the ball yet again is icing on the cake.
Pick: BAL (-6.5) -115 on DraftKings, risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit, bet up to BAL (-7).
Week 5 Rapid-Fire Picks
New York Jets “at” Atlanta Falcons (in London)
I’m not sure the Falcons and their 32nd-ranked DVOA should be favored by three over any team at a neutral site, but London games tend to favor more experienced teams. With that said, Matt Ryan appears to be a little too experienced at this point in his career, if you know what I mean. For all the ineptitude across this game’s matchup stats, the Jets have at least had a league-average defense through four weeks, so I’m taking a half-unit chance on them as underdogs.
I’m also fading the trend of London games skewing toward unders. Yes, the Jets defense has been near league average so far, but DAVE’s inclusion of preseason projections paints them as clearly below average, ranking 24th in the NFL. Pit a mediocre-to-bad defense like New York’s against a clearly bad defense like Atlanta’s, and it isn’t difficult for a game to shoot out. My one fear is the Jets stumbling into a lead and milking clock with their 23rd-ranked situation neutral pace. Falcons head coach Arthur Smith can fight back, though, with his 10th-ranked situation neutral pace, and it’s not like we’re looking at a 50-point over/under. The total is only 46 points, and these teams can eclipse that number against each other’s shaky defense.
Picks: NYJ (+3) -105 on FanDuel, risk 0.525 units to win 0.5 units; Over (46.0) -110 on DraftKings, risk 0.55 units to win 0.5 units.
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers
I found an over/under of 50 points for this game on Monday at DraftKings, but the line has dropped since the Chargers shut down the Raiders’ offense in primetime. As of this writing, the best under bet for Browns-Chargers in Week 5 is 48.5 on SugarHouse. I wish the total was still 50, but this late in the week, we have to settle for the relative value over the lines of 47.5 or lower at all the other books.
Pick: Under (48.5) -109 on SugarHouse, risk 1.09 units to win 1 unit.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have allowed 31.3 points per game this season. They make up for it with their top-ranked offense by DVOA, but the Bills have DVOA’s top-ranked defense. Furthermore, all evidence points to Buffalo carving up Kansas City’s defense (because everyone carves up their defense—it ranks worst in the league through four weeks). In what could be a changing of the guard moment atop the AFC ranks, I’ll gladly take the points with the Bills because they’re more complete and efficient overall.
Pick: BUF (+3.5) -110 at DraftKings, risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit, bet down to BUF (+3)
Good luck, everyone!
Please follow @GameFlowbotics on Twitter to get each week’s Game Flowbotics spreadsheet as soon as it’s available, and feel free to contact me there or @gregsauce to discuss the spreadsheet or my picks. For the most up-to-date picks subscribe to 4for4’s Discord. This sheet, from Dan Rivera, tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff). Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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