Breakout Receiver Model: Week 5

Oct 07, 2021
 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 5

The 2021 Breakout Receiver Model is back for Week 5 after a triumphant Week 4, where many of the model's top recommended players had season-best performances. Let's dig into the model's hits and misses, and check out the recommendations for the week ahead.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, have recalibrated and reconfigured the receiver "buy-low" model from years past in order to better identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends who might be on the verge of a breakout performance. For the uninitiated, the breakout receiver model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than their recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily-weights the last three weeks of data.

Last Week's Results

The model performed admirably this past week, with 63% of the underperforming players reaching their expected fantasy points in Week 4. On average, players outperformed their expected production by 36%.

Hits

Week 4 Breakout Receiver Model, Hits
Player Position Team XFP - Last 3 Next Week Diff.
DeVante Parker WR MIA 12.7 15.7 3
Jakobi Meyers WR NE 12.6 12.8 0.2
DeVonta Smith WR PHI 12.3 15.7 3.4
Mike Gesicki TE MIA 11.2 14.2 3
Kenny Golladay WR NYG 11 14.6 3.6
Kalif Raymond WR DET 8.4 18.1 9.7
Darnell Mooney WR CHI 8.2 16 7.8
Jared Cook TE LAC 8.2 16 7.8
Hunter Henry TE NE 7 11.2 4.2

DeVante Parker had his best game of the season, catching multiple passes of 20-plus air yards from Jacoby Brissett. Parker should have the downfield role to himself for the foreseeable future with Will Fuller placed on IR. DeVonta Smith also managed to find the end zone in the Eagles’ 45-30 loss to the Chiefs. Stefon Diggs just barely misses the cut here, performing right in line with his expected fantasy points, and outscoring his 2021 average by three-plus points in the Bills' 41-0 rout of the Texans.

Misses

Week 4 Breakout Receiver Model, Misses
Player Pos Team XFP - Last 3 Next Week Diff.
Darren Waller TE LV 17.6 13 -4.6
Emmanuel Sanders WR BUF 13.8 10.6 -3.2
D.J. Chark WR JAX 13.7 0 -13.7
Michael Pittman WR IND 12.9 8.9 -4
Courtland Sutton WR DEN 12.1 6.2 -5.9
Nelson Agholor WR NE 11.7 7.4 -4.3
Sammy Watkins WR BAL 11.6 6.9 -4.7
Mark Andrews TE BAL 10.5 9.2 -1.3
Bryan Edwards WR LV 9.7 0.9 -8.8
Kyle Pitts TE ATL 9 7 -2
Robby Anderson WR CAR 8.9 7.4 -1.5
Dyami Brown WR WAS 8 2.4 -5.6
David Njoku TE CLE 6.8 2.7 -4.1
Dan Arnold TE JAX 6.1 3.9 -2.2
Jack Doyle TE IND 5.7 2.9 -2.8
Eric Ebron TE PIT 5.5 1.8 -3.7
Cole Kmet TE CHI 5.2 1.1 -4.1

Derek Carr came back to earth during Monday night’s loss to the division rival Chargers, and now has two receivers who landed in the underperformer category in Darren Waller and Bryan Edwards. The Ravens won handily in Denver Sunday, and lead the league in yards per pass play, but both Sammy Watkins and Mark Andrews managed to whiff last week. That’s football for you.

Breakout Receiver Model Recommendations

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