Week 2 PrizePicks Prop Bets
Each week during the NFL season I scour through the PrizePicks Over/Under projections and compare them to 4for4's projections to highlight a few value plays. If you're not familiar with PrizePicks, they offer pick’em situations involving player stats and fantasy points. To complete an entry, select two or more options for your chance to win money up to triple your entry cost. More information on rules can be found here.
Week 1 presented the challenge of deciphering how teams/players were going to be utilized after months of offseason studying and research. It would make sense that my picks went 4-4. One week does not give us a solid base of statistics to work with but at least we have a better understanding of each NFL team and have tangible evidence to help make Week 2’s picks.
This week I have the added benefit of including player stats to my PrizePicks options (Kevin Zatloukal at 4for4 is amazing at his job and deserves as much praise as he can handle).
Week 2 Picks
Jalen Hurts Over 229.5 Passing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 271.4
Jalen Hurts looked excellent in Week 1 as he dismantled a poor Falcons defense. Having the 49ers' defense come to town is not ideal but after they hung up the ‘Not Interested’ sign for the majority of the second half of Week 1 against Detroit, any sort of dip in play will result in Hurts reprising his Week 1 effort. San Francisco lost CB Jason Verrett for the season (sigh) and rookie fifth-round pick Deommodore Lenoir is now starting. He filled in admirably in Week 1 but will see a lot of DeVonta Smith and Jalen Reagor, a major upgrade over Kalif Raymond and Quintez Cephus.
Devin Singletary Over 47.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 67.2
Zack Moss being inactive Week 1 changed the running back landscape in Buffalo. If he remains a healthy scratch this week, Singletary should smash this over after Damien Harris hit the century mark in Week 1. Matt Breida does not offer a change of pace from Singletary as both are slighter backs, so a vulturing of carries does not scare me. Singletary rushed for 72 yards on 11 carries against a much tougher Steelers defense last week.
Miles Sanders Under 64.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 49.6
If Week 1 is any indication, the 49ers will try to slow down Sanders and Hurts on the ground, leading to my Hurts passing prop pick above. D'Andre Swift barely averaged three yards per carry while back-up Jamaal Williams averaged six yards per carry. Kenneth Gainwell saw one-third of the running back carries Week 1 in a positive game script. The 49ers are better than Atlanta, so 24 carries among two backs this week may not happen. Sanders also received Wednesday off because of an ankle injury. He was a full participant Thursday but extra rest one week into the season raises a red flag.
Dak Prescott Over 10.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 19.9
The return of Zack Martin is great for the running game and protecting Dak Prescott, but the line lost La'el Collins and backup tackle Ty Nsekhe for at least Week 2 (and beyond for Collins due to suspension). The Chargers only had one sack against an improved Football Team offensive line but will have an easier time against the Cowboys. Los Angeles only allowed a 30% third-down conversion rate in Week 1 and Prescott's ability to run for chunks and keep defenses honest with his arm make 10.5 rushing yards easy to obtain.
Ben Roethlisberger Under 25.5 Pass Completions
- 4for4 Projection: 23.7
In a negative game script on the road, Ben Roethlisberger completed 18-of-32 pass attempts. Pittsburgh is a 6.5-point home favorite and faces a Raiders team that just played nearly five full quarters on Monday night. Najee Harris played 100% of the snaps in Week 1 and will be used to tenderize the Raiders' defense and keep Maxx Crosby from being Roethlisberger’s shadow.
Russell Gage Under 42.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 28.6
What about Russell Gage’s Week 1 goose egg should inspire PrizePicks players to take the over against Tampa Bay’s defense? If Gage could not accumulate stats against the Eagles’ 26th-ranked defense in schedule-adjusted defensive positional rankings (aFPA) at home, how will they fare against Tampa Bay on the road? The Cowboys' passing attack is much more potent than Atlanta’s and it is also realistic Gage loses slot snaps to Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts. With Sean Murphy-Bunting out for the Bucs, it would behoove the Falcons to get their best weapons in the slot to take on veteran CB Ross Cockrell.
Henry Ruggs Under 43.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 39.1
Henry Ruggs has topped 43 receiving yards five times in his career (55, 118, 56, 84, 46) with game number five being last week as the Raiders came from behind to top the Ravens in overtime. The Ravens were dealing with secondary injuries and still held Ruggs in check until the fourth quarter. The Steelers' defense is one of the best in football and a quick-striking offense is best suited for the Raiders coming off a short week. The short-to-intermediate passing game benefits Darren Waller, Bryan Edwards and Hunter Renfrow more than Ruggs.
Cooper Kupp Over 67.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 75.7
Tyler Lockett needed four catches to amass 100 yards against the Colts' secondary. While Cooper Kupp’s big Week 1 came in part to a blown coverage by the Chicago Bears secondary, it was clear new Rams QB Matthew Stafford enjoys throwing to the slot receiver. News came out this week that Stafford and Kupp are breakfast buddies, a narrative I am more than happy running with.
Tyler Boyd Over 51.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 60.6
Speaking of the Bears' secondary, defensive coordinator Sean Desai has yet to name a starting slot cornerback after last week’s debacle that saw Marqui Christian torched by Kupp for 7/108/1. Presumed starter Duke Shelley played the majority of the preseason in the slot and was a healthy scratch in Week 1. Tyler Boyd is going to eat and recency bias set his yardage total too low.
James Robinson Over 16.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 24.8
James Robinson topped this prop last week in negative game script in Houston. The Broncos' defense is coming to town and they are six-point road favorites with a respectable Over/Under set at 45 points. No Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde being bad keeps the production door wide open for Robinson to see the majority of the passing-down work. Robinson had five more targets than Hyde despite only one more catch. Robinson doubled Hyde’s receiving yard production.
