Breakout Receiver Model: Week 11

Nov 17, 2021

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The Breakout Receiver Model returns for Week 11 after some big hits at the top end of our expected fantasy points model last week, but an unfortunate bevy of misses in the middle-tier. Luckily we've got a ton of solid options to recommend in this week's rendition of the model. Let's dig into the results.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, have recalibrated and reconfigured the receiver "buy-low" model from years past in order to better identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends who might be on the verge of a breakout performance. For the uninitiated, the breakout receiver model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than their recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily-weights the last three weeks of data.

Last Week's Results

Hits

Week 10 Breakout Receiver Model, Hits
Player	Team	Position	XFP - Last 3	Week 10	XFP-Diff.
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	WR	16.7	25.6	8.9
Tyreek Hill	KC	WR	16.2	24	7.8
Mark Andrews	BAL	TE	14.7	15.3	0.6
Rashod Bateman	BAL	WR	11.7	11	-0.7
Bryan Edwards	LV	WR	9	16.3	7.3
Jakobi Meyers	NE	WR	8.8	12.9	4.1
Cole Kmet	CHI	TE	6.9	11.7	4.8
Cameron Brate	TB	TE	6.4	7.1	0.7

He really did it – Jakobi Meyers scored a touchdown! While we pop our finest champagne in celebration of this momentous achievement, I’d like to offer a gentle reminder that it was this breakout receiver article that has been touting Meyers week after week, and it finally paid off in a big way last Sunday. CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill both went off for monster games in Week 10 victories for their respective teams. Over the past four weeks, Lamb has solidified himself as the top target earner in Dallas and will continue to be the only consistent option in the Cowboys’ passing attack, despite the team’s production compared to league average. Even in a demoralizing loss, Lamar Jackson helped two of his teammates, Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman, get back to expectations this week (though Bateman’s three-game average is still slightly below expectation). Their production came at the expense of Marquise Brown, who sits atop our list of misses.

Misses

Week 10 Breakout Receiver Model, Misses
Player	Team	Position	XFP - Last 3	Week 10	XFP-Diff.
Marquise Brown	BAL	WR	22.3	6.7	-15.6
Kyle Pitts	ATL	TE	14.8	8	-6.8
Emmanuel Sanders	BUF	WR	14.1	6.1	-8
Amari Cooper	DAL	WR	13.5	7.1	-6.4
Davante Adams	GB	WR	13.1	11.3	-1.8
Mike Gesicki	MIA	TE	12.5	0	-12.5
Van Jefferson	LA	WR	11.7	6.9	-4.8
Zach Pascal	IND	WR	11.3	1.9	-9.4
D.J. Moore	CAR	WR	10.5	4.4	-6.1
Dallas Goedert	PHI	TE	10.4	3.8	-6.6
Dalton Schultz	DAL	TE	10.3	1.9	-8.4
A.J. Green	ARI	WR	9.7	0.9	-8.8
Marvin Jones	JAX	WR	9.4	4.5	-4.9
Mike Williams	LAC	WR	8.9	5.3	-3.6
Nelson Agholor	NE	WR	8.8	3.1	-5.7
Jarvis Landry	CLE	WR	8.1	4.6	-3.5
Mike Williams	LAC	WR	8	5.3	-2.7
Mo Alie-Cox	IND	TE	7.4	1.1	-6.3
Tommy Sweeney	BUF	TE	7	0	-7
Ricky Seals-Jones	WAS	TE	7	4.5	-2.5
Durham Smythe	MIA	TE	6.9	2.8	-4.1

Davante Adams didn’t have an atrocious Week 11, but it was sub-par by his standards. The same can be said for Kyle Pitts and Amari Cooper, who both disappointed despite plenty of scoring in the Cowboys-Falcons game this past weekend. Perhaps the biggest disappointment was Marquise Brown who, along with Mike Gesicki, are the first two players to score more than 10 points under their expectation. Even with Cam Newton (somewhat) back in the fold for Carolina, it didn’t change anything for D.J. Moore, who remains a perennial member of the “misses” list this season.