A First Look at Best-Ball ADP: MFL10 vs DRAFT

Apr 04, 2018
A First Look at Best-Ball ADP: MFL10 vs DRAFT

Best-ball contests have exploded over the past few seasons, in part due to their easy draft-and-go formats, along with the ability for the fantasy football community to partake ridiculously early in the NFL offseason. MFL10s have been the go-to option for best-ballers in recent years, but DRAFT has recently risen in popularity. Like shopping for the best values across DFS sites, comparing ADP between the two most popular best-ball platforms is a great way for owners to find value on their favorite players throughout the offseason.

Before making ADP comparisons between the two sites, we need to lay out the contrasts in scoring in order to get a true idea of why players are being selected where they are. Scoring for best ball contests on both sites is fairly simpatico, with just a few tweaks. One main difference is that DRAFT does not utilize a team defense at all, using 18-man rosters for QB, RB, WR, and TE while MFL10s have 20-man teams including the use of a DST. DRAFT also implements half-PPR scoring with MFL using a full-point PPR format. QB scoring also differs a bit and will be addressed a tad later in this piece.

When taking a look at the ADP data for the bulk of March, we can see that drafters for both MFL (which has been taken over by Fanball) and DRAFT are fairly consistent when it comes to the apex guys, players who are being taken in the first round. RBs have dominated round one with Todd Gurley emerging as the top Dawg on both sites (yes, that’s a UGA pun—I can never abandon my blatant homerism.) LeVeon Bell has been the RB2 and overall second selection, with Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara and David Johnson fluttering between the third and seventh spots. Sophomore Kareem Hunt holds both DRAFT and MFL10's eighth draft slot as RB6, with fellow second-year rusher Leonard Fournette coming off the board at the end of the first-round as RB7. No surprise here, but Antonio Brown has a firm grip on WR1, as MFL10’s sixth overall pick and DRAFT’s fifth.


QBs are being selected where they should be at this point, as far as not going too early in the draft process, yet the top guys are seeing a decent variance between the two sites. DRAFT users are grabbing the top six signal callers an average of 21.2 spots earlier than MFL users, which one would think could be a reflection of their scoring disparities. However, MFL awards .05 of a point per passing yard to DRAFT’s .04, with MFL taking 2 points away for a pick, while DRAFT snags only one point per interception. The difference could stem from DRAFT’s tendency to rank their QBs higher overall, but it’s just too early to really tell the reasoning for the sizeable discrepancy.

Running Backs

An interesting trend I noticed is that the ADP of RBs as a whole is more consistent among the two sets of drafters than any other position player. There are 24 players whose ADP variance is one or zero between MFL and DRAFT—13 of those are RBs and nine are WRs, with one TE and one QB. It appears that despite the differing draft strategies out there, RBs are being taken at very close to the same ADPs by both sites’ users. Here’s a look at the players who fit the bill here, and where they are falling in the drafts.

Player Team DRAFT ADP MFL ADP +/-
Derrick Henry TEN 25 24 -1
Chris Thompson WAS 72 71 -1
Doug Martin OAK 162 161 -1
Todd Gurley LAR 1 1 0
LeVeon Bell PIT 2 2 0
Kareem Hunt KC 8 8 0
Jordan Howard CHI 26 26 0
Kenyan Drake MIA 33 33 0
Ezekiel Elliott DAL 3 4 1
Leonard Fournette JAX 10 11 1
Melvin Gordon LAC 11 12 1
Mark Ingram NO 19 20 1
Chris Ivory BUF 239 240 1

Not all RBs have been selected at a consensus ADP however, as this offseason's backfield carousel leaves many question marks around the league. Jerrick McKinnon in a 49ers uniform has MFL drafters grabbing the former Viking 25 spots before those on DRAFT, while San Francisco sophomore Matt Brieda is hotter among DRAFT users by 32 slots. With Frank Gore out of the picture, Marlon Mack should see starter carries in Indy but is currently sitting as RB28, with an ADP difference of 37 between users on both sites. While Jordan Howard is sitting firm as RB15, his Bears' teammate Tarik Cohen is experiencing a wide variance as RB32. MFL players are taking the rusher 18 places before those on DRAFT, perhaps due to the uncertainty of his role in Chicago's new Matt Nagy led offense. The table below showcases some more RBs with the most disparity throughout best ball drafts in March.

Player Team DRAFT ADP MFL ADP +/_
Jerick McKinnon SF 105 80 -25
Aaron Jones GB 108 83 -25
Latavius Murray MIN 133 165 -22
Tarik Cohen CHI 102 84 -18
Giovani Bernard CIN 143 132 -11
Chris Carson SEA 95 117 22
Ameer Abdullah DET 164 190 26
Latavius Murray MIN 133 165 32
Matt Breida SF 148 180 32
Marlon Mack IND 85 122 37
Bilal Powell NYJ 97 137 40

Wide Receivers

When it comes to constructing best ball rosters from March 2–28th, WRs have by far the highest variance between MFL10 and DRAFT users so far. Looking at players whose ADP differs 20 spots or more, with DRAFT being the lower ADP of the two, there are currently 19 WRs who fall in that range—that large swing in ADP may be explained by the fact that an extra half point per reception is awarded in MFL10s over DRAFT. On the flip side, there are 20 WRs who are being drafted at least 20 picks later on DRAFT than in MFL10s. Below you'll find a chart with every wideout whose ADP was greater than 20 spots across both draft sites.

Player Team DRAFT ADP MFL ADP +/-
Albert Wilson MIA 252 196 -56
Taylor Gabriel CHI 270 219 -51
Ryan Grant IND 267 227 -40
Kenny Stills MIA 137 99 -38
Jermaine Kearse NYJ 205 168 -37
Emmanuel Sanders DEN 123 88 -35
Marqise Lee JAX 129 95 -34
Tyrell Williams LAC 202 169 -33
Josh Reynolds LAR 297 266 -31
Kelvin Benjamin BUF 132 103 -29
Randall Cobb GB 135 106 -29
Tyler Lockett SEA 195 166 -29
DeSean Jackson TB 159 131 -28
Pierre Garcon SF 120 93 -27
Larry Fitzgerald ARI 60 39 -21
Sammy Watkins KC 87 66 -21
Demaryius Thomas DEN 68 48 -20
Julian Edelman NE 81 61 -20
Jamison Crowder WAS 98 78 -20
Sterling Shepard NYG 116 96 -20
Chris Hogan NE 101 121 20
Dede Westbrook JAX 128 149 21
Corey Coleman CLE 153 175 22
Mike Williams LAC 165 187 22
Cameron Meredith CHI 144 167 23
Allen Hurns DAL 182 210 28
Mack Hollins PHI 262 290 28
Brandon Marshall NYG 222 252 30
Mike Wallace PHI 176 208 32
Zay Jones BUF 183 217 34
Geronimo Allison GB 255 291 36
Malcolm Mitchell NE 261 301 40
Trent Taylor SF 224 267 43
Tyler Boyd CIN 294 342 48
Willie Snead NO 251 312 61
Kevin White CHI 223 288 65
Curtis Samuel CAR 217 287 70
Jakeem Grant MIA 254 332 78
John Ross CIN 211 308 97

WR is always a tough segment to figure out this early on, with some teams still searching for their starting QB, which is why drafting in March/April is always a risky endeavor. Degenerates are going to degenerate, so here’s some more interesting info that this early data has shown.

Tight Ends

As usual, TEs are all over the board with drafters deciding to implement so many different strategies with the position. After the top tier of players, the variance becomes sizable between drafters on both sites, starting with Greg Olsen. Rumors of him hanging up the cleats for a booth job may have an impact, but his ADP is a 20-point swing with DRAFT users taking him earlier. With Tampa Bay re-signing Cameron Brate this offseason, the top two TEs on Tampa's roster have seen their ADP shift in opposite directions. Brate is being selected 17 spots earlier than O.J. Howard in MFLs, while DRAFT's data shows Howard favored by 21 spots. Guys with new homes are also seeing substantial variances such as Eric Ebron and Trey Burton whose ADP contrasts across sites are 21 and 27 picks, respectively. This table showcases these and other notable TEs whose draft spots have shown considerable disparity so far this best ball season.

Player Team DRAFT ADP MFL ADP +/-
Trey Burton CHI 166 139 -27
Cameron Brate TB 146 129 -17
Greg Olsen CAR 49 69 20
Eric Ebron IND 106 127 21
O.J. Howard TB 107 128 21
Tyler Eifert CIN 122 152 30
Charles Clay BUF 136 170 34

Teams to Monitor

Nobody knows what to think about or what to do with Miami’s receiving corps. Firstly, QB Ryan Tannehill, who is being selected as QB27 on DRAFT, currently has a 54 slot change in ADP between the two sites and is the QB32 in MFL10s. Owners on DRAFT are grabbing him much earlier than MFL players while his wideouts are all over the place. Devante Parker is the earliest to go as WR40 on both sites, while Kenny Stills holds the WR53 slot on DRAFT but is the WR 44 in MFL10s. Former Chief Albert Wilson is being selected as WR81 on DRAFT and the WR 73 in MFL10s, while Jakeem Grant, just two WRs below Wilson is seeing a huge disparity, with DRAFT users grabbing him 78 spots before those in MFL10s.

New England is another head-scratcher, but that comes with the whole “Belichick mystique”. Rob Gronkowski is the TE1 on both sites, but despite the advantage in PPR on MFL, is being drafted 12 slots earlier in DRAFT contests. His teammates in the backfield are also experiencing wide variances in their ADPs, but that’s to be expected with a crowded and always infuriating depth chart at RB for the Patriots. Rex Burkhead is their first rusher off the board as the RB29 on DRAFT, followed not so closely by James White as RB46; Mike Gillislee and Jeremy Hill check in at RB65 and RB67, respectively.

Once the NFL Draft has come and gone, not only will all of us on twitter rejoice at not having to read about hand sizes, wingspan, and the like anymore this year, but we will have a better idea of how team’s offenses will shape up this season. This should have a large impact on best ball ADP heading into the summer, and will no doubt shake things up in a fun way.

Hold on to your hats, bandanas, beanies or whatever headdress you prefer, as we’re just getting started around here. Spring is in the air, and so is the beginning of tons of exciting fantasy football content at 4for4.

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