Squirrel Patrol’s Week 14 NFL Main Slate DFS GPP Picks
Week 14 brings an 11-game main slate on Sunday, packed with exciting NFL games that will impact the playoff picture. Both FanDuel and DraftKings continue to roll out massive prize pools, with DraftKings once again offering two Millionaire Maker tournaments.
Only one game on the slate has a total below 40.5 points – TEN/CLE all the way down at 33.5 points. The CIN/BUF game has the highest total on the slate at 53.5 despite some potential bad weather, and both the IND/JAX game (46.5) and LAR/ARI game (47.5) have a total above 45. Injury situations continue to make an impact, with Jayden Daniels in, and Drake London, Alvin Kamara, and Rome Odunze out. Dalton Kincaid, Parker Washington, and Chris Olave are listed as Questionable.
Let’s break down the positions, spotlight some of the best DFS options, and map out a path to the top of the leaderboards this Sunday.
Quarterbacks
Our ownership projections currently have Josh Allen projected as the highest-owned QB. This is no surprise, with the Bills leading the slate with a 29.5 point implied point total, facing a Bengals defense that gives up the most points per game in the NFL. Allen is tied for third in the league with 11 rushing touchdowns and has added 19 passing touchdowns as well. While Allen is in an excellent spot, there are some concerns – he is the most expensive QB on the slate on both sites, and the Bills could attack a Bengals rushing defense that is far weaker than their passing defense. Still, Allen draws an Honorable Mention on FanDuel, where touchdowns carry more relative impact on fantasy scoring.
For my Featured Pick on both FanDuel and DraftKings, I’ll turn to Matthew Stafford, continuing his argument for the MVP award. Stafford leads the league with 32 touchdown passes against just 4 interceptions, and the Rams have the second-highest implied point total on the slate at 28.0 points. Stafford is the second-most expensive QB on DraftKings and the fifth-most expensive on FanDuel, and he comes at a significant discount to Josh Allen.
I’ll give an Honorable Mention on both sites to Jacoby Brissett, playing at home indoors in a game tied for the second-highest total of the week. Brissett has thrown for 300+ yards in each of the past three games, averaging 346.7 passing yards per game, with five touchdowns in that stretch. The Cardinals will be without Marvin Harrison, Jr., once again, which makes Brissett easy to stack with his discounted WR1, Michael Wilson.
My second Honorable Mention on DraftKings goes to Jayden Daniels, who is mis-priced on DraftKings at $6,000 in his return from injury. That price is a $600 discount on his pre-injury price, and Washington is a 1.5-point favorite in Minnesota. Daniels also now has discounted receivers to stack with, with Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel both near their minimum price for the season.
For my Off-The-Radar play, on both sites, I’ll look to Tyrod Taylor, at a low price tag and with cheap wide receivers. Taylor put up 172 passing yards and a touchdown through the air, and 44 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground last week in a win against Atlanta.
FanDuel: Featured Pick – Matthew Stafford; Honorable mentions – Josh Allen, Jacoby Brissett; Off-The-Radar – Tyrod Taylor
DraftKings: Featured Pick – Matthew Stafford; Honorable mentions – Jayden Daniels, Jacoby Brissett; Off-The-Radar – Tyrod Taylor
Running Backs
The RB position this week features a clear top option, with the Bengals’ weak rushing defense facing Buffalo in the game with the highest total of the week. On both FanDuel and DraftKings, my Featured Pick is James Cook. Cook is this week’s beneficiary of a Bengals rushing defense that allows the second-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-most rushing yards per carry, and the most points per game in the NFL. He ranks second in the league with 1,228 rushing yards, and the Bills have the highest implied point total of the week.
Breece Hall draws an Honorable Mention on both FanDuel and DraftKings, facing the Dolphins at home. Hall saw 19 carries last week and could be relied on even more at home this week against a Miami rushing defense allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game and the fifth-most rushing yards per carry.
On FanDuel, De'Von Achane gets an Honorable Mention with a price tag that is $100 less than James Cook (Achane is $1,000 more expensive than Cook on DraftKings). Achane is averaging 142.7 rushing yards per game over the past three games and is tied for second among RBs with 54 receptions on the season. This week, Miami plays a Jets defense that allows the seventh-most rushing yards per game. On DraftKings, my second Honorable Mention goes to Josh Jacobs. Jacobs and the Packers are 7-point favorites at home against a Bears rushing defense that allows the third-most yards per carry in the NFL. Jacobs is well-priced on DraftKings at $6,800, a full $2,500 less than Jonathan Taylor. For comparison, on FanDuel, Jacobs is just $1,100 cheaper than Taylor.
For an off-the-radar play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, I’ll look way down the price list to Samaje Perine facing the Bills. Perine returned from injury last week and played 40% of the snaps against Baltimore. Perine put up 39 rushing yards on 14 attempts, pulling down two receptions for 15 yards, and this week faces a Bills rushing defense that allows the second-most yards per carry in the NFL.
FanDuel: Featured Pick – James Cook; Honorable mentions – De'Von Achane, Breece Hall; Off-The-Radar – Samaje Perine
DraftKings: Featured Pick – James Cook; Honorable mentions – Josh Jacobs, Breece Hall; Off-The-Radar – Samaje Perine
Wide Receivers
As always, my lineups will prioritize pairing receivers from the same game with my quarterback, with most rosters featuring two or more pass-catchers from the same game as my QB.
On both FanDuel and DraftKings, my Featured Pick this week is Michael Wilson. Wilson and the Cardinals are playing indoors against a Rams defense that can be tough to score on, but allows the 10th-most receptions per game in the NFL. This game has the second-highest total on the slate, and is mis-priced with Marvin Harrison out again for Arizona. Wilson established himself as a true WR1 in the games without Marvin Harrison last month, putting up 25 receptions and 303 receiving yards in two games.
Puka Nacua gets an Honorable Mention on both FanDuel and DraftKings in the same game as Wilson, with a much higher price tag. Nacua ranks second in the NFL with 92.6 receiving yards per game and is tied for second in the league with 86 receptions. Puka has seen his price dip a bit after three games in a row without a touchdown, while teammate Davante Adams has put up five touchdowns in that stretch (and 11 in his past six games). The touchdowns should start to even out, and the Rams have the second-highest implied point total on the slate. Luther Burden also gets an Honorable Mention on both sites, now underpriced with the Bears missing Rome Odunze. Burden was seeing both his playing time and opportunities increase even before Odunze's absence, and the Bears are facing a Packers defense that allows the 10th-most yards per catch this season.
If I’m looking for an off-the-radar play, on both FanDuel and DraftKings, I’ll look way down the price list to Andre Baccellia, seeing almost no ownership. The Cardinals will be without both Marvin Harrison and Greg Dortch, and backup Xavier Weaver is Questionable with a hamstring injury. Baccellia will be off the radar for most DFS players heading into Sunday, but he could start the game as the Arizona WR2.
FanDuel: Featured Pick – Michael Wilson; Honorable mentions – Puka Nacua, Luther Burden; Off-The-Radar – Andre Baccellia
DraftKings: Featured Pick – Michael Wilson; Honorable mentions – Puka Nacua, Luther Burden; Off-The-Radar – Andre Baccellia
Tight Ends
At tight end, my Featured Pick on both FanDuel and DraftKings is Kyle Pitts. Drake London is expected to miss this game for Atlanta, which should provide more opportunities for Pitts, who is priced at just $5,300 on FanDuel and $4,200 on DraftKings. Pitts put up eight receptions for 82 yards last week with London missing the game, and the Falcons are playing at home indoors against a Seattle defense that gives up the sixth-most receptions per game in the NFL. Tyler Warren draws an Honorable Mention on both sites, ranking second on the Colts in receptions, targets, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns, and playing in a game tied for the second-highest total of the week.
If I’m looking for an Off-The-Radar pick for a tight end, on both FanDuel and DraftKings, I’ll look to Bears TE Colston Loveland. Like Luther Burden, Loveland was a highly drafted pass-catcher for the Bears who should see more work as the season progresses, and who will benefit from the absence of Rome Odunze. Loveland has at least three receptions in each of the past seven games and will see significantly less ownership than Burden.
FanDuel: Featured pick – Kyle Pitts; Honorable mention – Tyler Warren; Off-the-radar: Colston Loveland
DraftKings: Featured pick – Kyle Pitts; Honorable mention – Tyler Warren; Off-the-radar: Colston Loveland
