The Rundown: Week 7 Stats to Know & Chiefs vs Broncos

Oct 16, 2019
The Rundown: Week 7 Stats to Know & Chiefs vs Broncos

Week 6 felt like a return to the preseason hopes of many fantasy owners. Stefon Diggs, Odell Beckham, Hunter Henry, and others provided returns most were hoping for when they were drafted prior to the season. It was also a vindication for some late-round RB drafters who leveraged retreads like Adrian Peterson and Carlos Hyde in positive matchups. Week 7 has several games that will pay handsomely to fantasy players, even with potential quarterback replacements and uncertain injury statuses.

Each week, I will provide a preview article with some key overall stats to watch for along with the Thursday game preview that includes start/sit ratings. Then, there will be subsequent previews later in the week with all the other games in time for the remaining fantasy decisions before kickoff. For much of this data, I will be using 4for4's Snaps, Touches, and Targets Apps as well as analyzing each team's pace and play-calling tendencies.

Ten Stats to Know for Week 7

  • Quarterbacks taking flight: Six quarterbacks finished in the top 12 for Week 6 PPR scoring. There were seven total in the previous three weeks combined.
  • Sorely needed help: Hunter Henry ranks as the TE19 this year despite playing in just two games. He has more PPR points in Week 6 (30) than O.J. Howard’s season total (28.6).
  • More tight end data: Austin Hooper is the only tight end with three games of 20-plus PPR points. Mark Andrews and Evan Engram are the only others with multiple efforts.
  • Viking power: The Vikings passing offense the last two weeks has Stefon Diggs (10th), Adam Thielen (11th), and Kirk Cousins (12th) all ranked in the top 12 for PPR leagues.
  • I am Iron Man: Robert Woods leads all non-QBs with 421 offensive snaps played this year. He only ranks 24th at wide receiver in PPR points scored.
  • Super-charged target: Mike Williams has seen double-digit targets in each of the last two games since missing Week 4. Keenan Allen hasn’t hit that mark since his return.
  • Falcon soaring: Devonta Freeman is the RB8 over the last three weeks after a start that saw him fail to surpass 15 PPR points in a game. He has done so in each of the past three.
  • Hard Target: James White ranks ninth in the NFL with 28 targets over the past three games and one of three players with nine or more in each of those contests.
  • Victim of success: Patrick Mahomes has three straight games under 20 fantasy points. He had three total games under 20 points in all of 2018.
  • Signaling for more: Eight quarterbacks are on pace to average 20 or more fantasy points per game this season. There were eight such instances total in 2017 and 2018 combined.

Chiefs @ Broncos

Spread: Broncos +3 | Total: 48.5

After four straight games of 400-plus offensive yards to start the season, the Chiefs haven’t cracked 325 in either of their last two. That’s largely been a meltdown of the rushing game, which is barely averaging 40 yards per game during those two contests. The Broncos did give up over 200 rushing yards to Leonard Fournette in Week 4 but just 74 total rushing yards since that time. On offense, Joe Flacco has been sputtering with three efforts under 220 passing yards in the last four games. That hurts the entire offense and won’t be enough here if the Chiefs jump out to an early lead. A few touchdowns are the only hope for fantasy players starting Broncos this week.

Kansas City Chiefs

Injuries have to be partially to blame for the passing offenses recent struggles. Tyreek Hill being out, Sammy Watkins getting hurt, and a running game that seems to have a new starter each week. Some stability would help Mahomes starting with a second game back for Hill. As for the running game, Damien Williams has looked hopeless so far, meaning a committee is looming if he can’t treat the Broncos like Fournette.

Team Trends That Matter

  • Injuries have meant that no Chiefs wide receiver ranks in the top 24 PPR scorers at the position.
  • Three different running backs and five different wide receivers have exceeded 50% snap share in a game this season.
  • The third fastest pace (27.66 seconds) between plays when adjusting for situation and score.

Fantasy Rating and a Stat to Know

  • QB Patrick Mahomes (5) - Worst stretch of his career over the past three weeks still saw him finish 11th, 11th, and 10th in weekly scoring
  • RB Damien Williams (2) - Derrick Henry and Melvin Gordon combined for 27 carries for 59 yards the last two games versus the Broncos defense
  • RB LeSean McCoy (2) - Has double-digit touches in five of six games this year
  • WR Tyreek Hill (4) - Saw 10 targets on just 29 offensive snaps in Week 6
  • WR Sammy Watkins (2) - The Broncos have only allowed two touchdowns to wide receivers this year
  • WR Demarcus Robinson (0) - Four or more targets in five straight games this season
  • TE Travis Kelce (5) - No tight end has exceeded 10 PPR points against the Broncos since Darren Waller in Week 1

Denver Broncos

As long as they can, it is likely that the Broncos try to keep this on the ground and sustain long drives to avoid the Chiefs offense. That means they will need to score here and while teams have done so against the Kansas City defense, the Broncos are not the Colts, Texans, or Ravens. Joe Flacco will likely have to force some throws later in the game but could accumulate decent yardage.

Team Trends That Matter

  • The Broncos are one of five teams with more field goals than touchdowns this season.
  • Gardner Minshew is the only opposing quarterback to throw for multiple touchdowns against the Broncos.
  • One of four teams with five or more players inside the PPR top 100 scorers for 2019.

Fantasy Rating and a Stat to Know

  • QB Joe Flacco (1) - Four quarterbacks have thrown over 250 passing yards against the Chiefs but none have reached 300
  • RB Phillip Lindsay (4) - The RB9 since Week 3 averaging 19.1 PPR points per game
  • RB Royce Freeman (3) - Double digit touches in all six games this season
  • WR Courtland Sutton (3) - Ranks fourth in percent of a team’s Air Yards at 43%
  • WR Emmanuel Sanders (2) - Averaged 10 PPR points in two games against the Chiefs in 2018
  • TE Noah Fant (1) - Hasn’t seen five or more targets since Week 1 of this season

Fantasy Rating Key

  • (5) - Elite option. Must start.
  • (4) - Strong option. Likely start.
  • (3) - Good option. Low-end starter to high-end backup.
  • (2) - Weak option. Possible flex or desperation play.
  • (1) - Bad option. Bench in nearly all cases.
  • (0) - Not an option. Injured, bench, or waivers.