DRAFT Week 5 Breakdown and Top Plays

Oct 05, 2017
DRAFT Week 5 Breakdown and Top Plays

Week 5 is upon us, and with it we get different matchups, new challenges, and a fresh set of players primed for your DFS lineups. The DRAFT platform has put together a unique format that marries redraft and DFS together into one exciting and different power couple.

Their weekly fantasy contests are not your typical salary cap format. Instead, they offer a series of snake-style draft contests with differing team amounts. You can choose from head-to-head, 3-team, 6-team, 8-team, or 10-team contests, with varying dollar amounts per contest. With each draft, players must select five position players: 1QB, 2RB, and 2WR/TEs. There are no salaries, no ownership percentages, and no large tourneys.

Below I will take a look at some of the best plays of the week, according to league size. You will see multiple references to aFPA, which is our schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. By using aFPA, we remove bias so that we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. One more note: remember that DRAFT is a snake-style format, so you must plan accordingly in larger contest sizes.

H2H

With only two drafters involved, your cumulative score just has to be higher than that of your opponent. Since only 10 players are involved, stick to the elite DFS chalk here.

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. GBP

Green Bay’s secondary is among the worst in the league, and Prescott is proving that a sophomore slump is nothing but a wives’ tale. He’s currently QB5 on the season, scoring an average of 19.6 fantasy points per game. He should tee off on the Packers corners, making him the chalk QB of Week 5.

Aaron Rodgers (GBP) @ DAL

The Cowboys have allowed some mediocre QBs to ravage their defense this season, giving up 4 touchdowns to Trevor Siemian, and 325 yards and 2 scores to Carson Palmer. Even without Davante Adams, Rodgers should have no trouble tossing the rock in Dallas, and reaching Green Bay’s implied total of 25 points.

Running Backs

LeVeon Bell (PIT) vs. JAC

Bell is evergreen as DFS chalk, especially when no salaries are involved. In Week 5, he gets a Jaguars defense ranked the third-worst against the run, with an aFPA of 31.2 to opposing backfields. Throw in the fact that it’s a home game and Bell is the RB to target this week.

Todd Gurley (LAR) vs. SEA

The former Georgia Bulldog sits atop the RB mountain, amassing an impressive 119.6 PPR fantasy points through the first four weeks of the season. Seattle’s run defense has an aFPA of 26 points to the position, just shy of Gurley’s 29.9 average per game. Look for the Rams RB to have success rushing against the Seahawks on the road, a team that has a history of weaker play outside of CenturyLink Field.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

DeVante Parker (MIA) vs. TEN

Miami’s offense isn’t exactly running on all cylinders with Jay Cutler under center but should produce this weekend at home against the Titans. Tennessee’s secondary is dead last when it comes to WRs, allowing an aFPA of 51.0 PPR points to opposing wideouts this season. Parker is averaging 9 targets and 15.7 PPR points per game.

Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) @ PHI

At 34, Fitzgerald is playing better than ever, sitting as the WR7 after the first four weeks of the season. He leads the Cardinals in targets with 41; the next highest player has 29. On Sunday, he faces a super soft Philly secondary, allowing at least four WRs to rack up over 20 fantasy points each this season. The Eagles are third-worst at defending the WR position with an aFPA of 43.4. Fitzy has delivered as chalk already this season, and should do it again in Week 5.

DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) vs. KCC

With an insane 38% of Houston’s targets, Hopkins leads all WRs in that category with 49 total. Thanks to solid play from his rookie QB Deshaun Watson, Hopkins has put up 74.1 PPR points through the first four games. He should have another productive outing against the Chiefs at home this weekend. He’ll see the red zone early and often in Week 5 and is worthy of a roster spot in all DRAFT formats.

3-Person Draft

When you enter a contest with only three teams, you’re either picking two players at a time, or you’re in the middle of two drafters doing just that. Same studs apply here; draft accordingly.

6, 8 or 10-Person Draft

Below you’ll find a few more recommendations for Week 2 starters to assist in filling out five-player rosters when more players are involved. You’ll need to dig a bit deeper into the rankings to find a player or two who will out-produce the players your opponents draft.

Quarterbacks

Eli Manning (NYG) vs. LAC

The younger Manning gets very little respect in the fake football world, but he’s quietly having a solid season, sitting as QB11 with back-to-back performances of 20+ fantasy points. New York’s running game is hot garbage, raising Manning’s floor this week against the Chargers.

Sterling Shepard is having himself a season, leading the Giants receiving corps in fantasy points, as is rookie TE Evan Engram who quickly acclimated himself to New York’s offense. Oh, and they also have a guy named Odell Beckham Jr. The Chargers' aFPA is 15.9 to the QB position, but I suspect Manning will better that by at least five fantasy points.

Carson Wentz (PHI) vs. ARI

Wentz has been successful this season with little firepower in his arsenal, racking up enough points for the QB8 spot after four weeks. He has a great thing going with TE Zach Ertz, who has the highest number of targets this season among TEs, with the second-highest PPR points at the position.

Arizona’s defense falls among the bottom ten at defending QBs, with an aFPA of 18.6 to signal-callers they’ve faced in 2017. Wentz should be able to hit Ertz and his other receivers without too much trouble this weekend and is certainly in the conversation for DFS rosters.

Philip Rivers (LAC) @ NYG

Through four weeks, Rivers has thrown for over 300 yards in two of those games and scored 3 passing touchdowns against a tough Denver defense in the Chargers’ Week 1 loss. He has plenty of healthy weapons this season, and has been spreading the love around with 40 targets to Keenan Allen, 24 to Tyrell Williams, 20 to Travis Benjamin, and a combined 27 to his TEs.

New York’s secondary allowed Jameis Winston to pass for 332 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 4, which bodes well for Rivers and his offense. He is a solid choice this week and should be rostered in the larger DRAFT contests.

Running Backs

Leonard Fournette (JAC) @ PIT

Ranked third in the league in touches this season, the rookie RB has been able to handle the heavy workload, averaging 19.3 PPR points per game, 77 total after just four outings. The Steelers fall in the middle of the pack at defending the rush, with an aFPA of 24.3 PPR points to opposing backfields.

Fournette finds ways to get to the end zone, scoring at least one touchdown in every game, making him one of the safest RBs to roster week in and week out. Grab him with confidence this week before your opponents do.

Carlos Hyde (SF) @ IND

With 69.9 PPR fantasy points, Hyde sits as RB8 on the season, dropping an average of 17.5 points per game. He leads the 49ers in fantasy points with the highest number of touches by far in San Francisco’s offense. The Colts defense is soft against the run, ranking 24th in aFPA, making this a nice matchup for the 49ers bell cow RB.

Eddie Lacy (SEA) @ LAR

You may have thrown up a little in your mouth reading this recommendation, but sometimes reality is reality. The Rams are the absolute bottom of the barrel when it comes to run defense, allowing an aFPA of 38 this season to opposing RBs. Seattle’s backfield is a triage unit, with just Lacy, Thomas Rawls, and possibly C.J. Prosise in the mix. Rawls could be in play too this week, as the Seahawks will most likely go with the hot hand. In a larger DRAFT contest, they could be a difference maker for your roster.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

T.Y. Hilton (IND) vs. SF

Even with Jacoby Brissett under center, Hilton is averaging 12.5 PPR points per game as the highest targeted player in the Colts offense. The 49ers have been spongy when it comes to WRs, ranking 26th in the NFL in aFPA. Hilton has been somewhat under the radar without Andrew Luck at the helm and could be a decent DFS option this week in larger contests.

Golden Tate (DET) vs. CAR

Tate leads the Lions in both red zone share and fantasy points, averaging 13.2 PPR points per game. He has a promising matchup in Week 5, versus a traveling Carolina secondary who have struggled to defend WRs so far this season. The Panthers defense gave up 49 PPR points to Saints WRs in Week 3 and 43.1 to New England’s pass-catchers last week.

As the highest targeted member of the Lions’ receiving corps, Tate makes for a decent DFS player this Sunday and one who your opponents may not think of drafting.

Jordy Nelson (GBP) @ DAL

The Cowboys secondary isn’t the strongest this season and with Davante Adams possibly out, Nelson should see even more targets than the 6 per game he’s averaging. I listed Aaron Rodgers as a chalk QB above, and with Nelson, they could make a solid stack in any DRAFT lineup. You could also substitute Nelson with Randall Cobb if you prefer, as both WRs should produce in Week 5.

Antonio Brown (PIT) vs. JAC

I’m fairly certain you need no real explanation for rostering Brown, but here goes... Ben Roethlisberger is a monster at home and will throw to Brown all day long. The Jaguars secondary has been playing well, but Brown is a matchup-proof wideout each and every week. He leads Pittsburgh in targets with 45 through the first four weeks and is second only to Bell in overall fantasy points.

Zach Ertz (PHI) vs. ARI

There’s no real need for a TE in the smaller contests, but in the 8- or 10-team drafts, rostering a TE could be a difference maker. Ertz is second overall in PPR points among TEs and is Carson Wentz’s go-to option, throwing him the ball 36 times this season.

Travis Kelce (KCC) @ HOU

The Chiefs TE is always a possibility to go off every week, and even with a poor performance in Week 3, Kelce ranks as TE3 on the season in PPR points. Houston’s defense plays the TE position pretty well, but like Brown above, Kelce tends to be matchup proof. Grab him in larger contests as a change of pace player.

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