Jake's DK Top Plays and Best Bets for the Scottish Open

Every week on Wednesday afternoons, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite DraftKings plays in this article with brief write-ups of each player. I will also include some of my “best bets” for the week as well. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward. I’ll include my top plays from the week prior, their DK Price, where they finished on the leaderboard, and how many DK points they scored. This article will be FREE every week, but with access to a 4for4 betting sub, you will get access to our discord and all of our bets (PGA + other sports).

John Deere Recap:

Ben Griffin was the chalkiest golfer on the entire slate last week and putt himself out of the tournament, missing the cut by two strokes. Besides Griffin, the rest of my top plays played very well. The POTW, Michael Thorbjornsen, had two good rounds, one awful round, and one amazing round where, for a second, he was chasing the course record. If Thorb hadn’t had the +2 Saturday, he could have easily won this tournament, but it’s good to see Thorb having success in back-to-back tournaments, and I am excited for his future.

Hubbard was highly owned but did his job, a T33 finish is good enough from a 7700 golfer. It was finally the Jackson Koivun coming-out party! Koivun had his best finish on the PGA Tour with a T11 finish. Koivun played the last three rounds 14 under par and finished Top 3 in both SG:OTT and SG:P. Once Koivun gets his iron and wedge game down, he is going to be a force on the PGA Tour, and the wins should pour in.

Scottish Open Rabbit Hole Model (see below for Top 40 in my model):

Using promo code: JAKE10, you will get your first month $10 (regularly $29.99).

With a BetSperts subscription, you will have full access to my model as well as Ryan Noonan's, Ron Klos’, and others every week. You can also create your own model too. You will also get access to the BetSperts discord, where Ron and Ryan release bets as well: Outrights, T5/10/20/40, H2H Matchups, 3Balls, etc.

Feel free to drop a message in the Discord channel or on Twitter with any questions you may have.

My Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• SG: TOT: L5 Years Ireland/UK
• SG: TOT: L5 Years; Windy
• SG: T2G: Last 20 rounds; recent form
• Dr Distance: Last 50 rounds
• OVR 200+: Last 50 rounds (long approach shots)
• SG: Putting: On large greens, slow surfaces, and on links/”hybrid links” courses

Scottish Open DraftKings Top Plays (DK Price, Outright Odds, Model Rank)

Tommy Fleetwood, $9.9K, +22/1 FD, 2nd in model

Key Stats:

• 7th in SG:T2G (Last 20 Rounds)
• 7th in Scrambling Short Grass % (Last 50 Rounds Avg/Difficult Short Grass)
• 5th in SG:BS (Last 50 Rounds Driver Heavy)
• 5th in SG:TOT (Last 3 Years @ The Renaissance Club)

I think everybody knows how Fleetwood’s last start ended. Two weeks ago at the Travelers, Fleet was the favorite to win the tournament on the 18th hole with a 1-stroke lead, a bogey from Fleet and a birdie by Keegan saw Fleet fall just short once again. While that loss was crushing, it highlights just how well Fleet has been playing. Fleet has finished inside the top 5 in three of his last six starts. The putter change Fleet made a couple of months ago has done him wonders, and his ball striking remains some of the best in the world. Fleet has a 4th and 6th place finish at The Renaissance Club and is in perfect form to again chase his PGA Tour win.

Viktor Hovland, $9.3k, 40/1 FD, 8th in model

Key Stats:

• 5th in SG:T2G (Last 20 Rounds)
• 13th in SG:TOT (Last 5 Years UK/Ireland)
• 3rd in OVR Prox (Last 50 Rounds)
• 29th in Scrambling Short Grass % (Last 50 Rounds Avg/Difficult Short Grass)

Hovland is inching closer and closer to his 2023 form, coming off a 3rd-place finish at the US Open, where he finished 3rd in the field in APP. Additionally, Hovland led the entire field at the Travelers before having to withdraw. Hovland’s irons are on fire, and his chipping mishaps seem to be fading away. Hovland’s putting game has faded this season, but I like betting on some positive regression with him on these slow links greens, which he has plenty of experience on, given his Norwegian heritage. Hovland is one of the most talented golfers in the world and has the potential to win any given week.

Nicolai Højgaard, $7.5K, +100/1 FD, 12th in model

Key Stats:

• 7th in SG:APP (Last 50 Rounds)
• 9th in Scrambling Short Grass % (Last 50 Rounds Avg/Difficult Short Grass)
• 7th in SG:BS (Last 5 Years Links)
• 27th in SG:TOT (Last 5 Years UK/Ireland)

Nicolai is one of the streakiest golfers in the world; his putter is either extremely hot or extremely cold, and the rest of his game, besides his OTT play, is very similar. With the wind expected to be down this week we can expect the GIR rate to be around 70%, which is great because Nicolai can gain a stroke putting and on approach a round over any field of players in the world, which he put on full display at the PGA Championship gaining 1.18 strokes on approach and 0.88 putting. Nicolai was a full-time member of the DP World Tour for 3 seasons and is no stranger to links-style golf. Nicolai gained 1.54 strokes on APP a round in 2024 and 1.91 in 2023 at The Renaissance Club; his putter failed him in both of those starts. If Nicolai is on his game, he can win this golf tournament at only a 7500 price tag.

Victor Perez $7.2K, 110/1 FD, 14th in model
Key Stats:

• 21st in SG:APP (Last 50 Rounds Large Greens)
• 19th in Scrambling Short Grass % (Last 50 Rounds Avg/Difficult Short Grass)
• 20th in SG:BS (Last 5 Years Links)
• 20th in GIR % (Last 50 Rounds GIR Accuracy Easy/Average)

Perez is having his best statistical season with his putter, and that's perfect timing because when the wind is down in Scotland, as it was last year, this tournament will boil down to a putting contest. Perez is similar to Nicolai; he also lacks consistency, but his A game fits The Renaissance Club perfectly. Perez's irons can pop big time, and his putter is capable of spiking as well. Perez is also no stranger to links golf as he was a member of the DP World Tour for 5 years.

PLAY OF THE WEEK: Viktor Hovland

Scottish Open:

Bets possibly to come later on discord.

Betting Recap (last week and season):

John Deere: No bets

Overall: 32-68, -$490

-6.31% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop. On outrights and longshot bets, tracking smaller units or TO WIN X amount (specified on release)

Make sure to join Discord to get the rest of the bets for this week!

4for4 Additional Info:

Be sure to be in the 4for4 Discord, as I may push out additional plays that are not in the article, or there may be some odds movement on some of the bets. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here! Make sure to add the PGA-Betting Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Staff_Golf_Plays to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

For more betting content and takeaways, check out my Twitter (@JakeLotenberg2) and subscribe to our Discord. I’ll be tracking my best bet results at the end of each week and updating the article accordingly the following week.

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