Squirrel’s Nuts & Bolts: Falcons - Saints MNF Showdown Strategy (Week 4 NFL DFS)

Week 4 of the NFL season wraps up with an NFC South Showdown between the Falcons and the Saints at the Caesars Superdome. Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET, and the Saints are favored by 1.5 points at home with the total set at 47.5 points.

The Falcons scored 16 points in two losses with Cooper Rush and rookie Jack Strand at quarterback, then won 35-14 in Green Bay in Michael Penix Jr.’s first start since last season’s torn ACL. Penix completed 18 of 25 passes for 256 yards, and Drake London caught nine of his 10 targets for a career-high 194 yards after managing six catches for 80 yards in the first two games. Bijan Robinson ran 29 times for 194 yards and two touchdowns. He led the league with 2,298 yards from scrimmage last season and already has 349 rushing yards and 13 catches for 118 yards. Atlanta has run the ball 104 times against 79 pass attempts through three games.

The Saints are also 1-2, and they have put the offense on Tyler Shough’s arm with 132 pass attempts against 80 rushes. Shough has completed 91 of those passes for 917 yards, eight touchdowns, and three interceptions. Chris Olave caught 100 passes for 1,163 yards and nine touchdowns last season, and he has at least eight catches in every game this year with 27 for 375 yards and a touchdown on 36 targets. All four of Shough’s touchdown passes in last week’s loss to the Raiders went to tight ends, two apiece to Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant (questionable, abdomen). Travis Etienne Jr. (hamstring) went on injured reserve this week. He had 13 of the running backs’ 27 carries against the Raiders, with Alvin Kamara taking nine and Kendre Miller four. The Saints’ defense will be without edge rushers Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings and linebacker Kaden Elliss.

This Showdown gives us a Falcons offense that came alive in Penix’s return against a Saints team that throws 44 passes a game. Let’s break down this Monday night NFC South Showdown, highlight the key plays, and uncover the strategies that could help you climb the leaderboards.

How I Plan to Beat the Field

The full DraftKings and FanDuel ownership projections are on our Showdown Ownership Projections page. Bijan Robinson is the most popular player in the top spot on both sites, projected for 21% CPT ownership on DraftKings and 28% MVP ownership on FanDuel. Tyler Shough (14% DK, 21% FD) and Chris Olave (17% DK, 14% FD) are next, with Drake London at 11% and 8%.

Robinson is the top play on the slate, and he deserves the ownership. He has averaged 22 carries a game with 16 targets on top of that, and his -210 anytime touchdown price is by far the shortest on the board, with no other player shorter than +110. The Saints have allowed 386 rushing yards in three games and are short-handed in the front seven tonight. The only question with Robinson is how different from the field you want to be. My answer is to stay close to the field on him at CPT and MVP and get different with the two wide receivers.

I’ll be over the field on both London and Olave in the top spot, and London’s history with Penix is a big part of that. In the 13 games Penix has started, London has 91 catches for 1,356 yards and eight touchdowns on 143 targets, which works out to 11 targets, seven catches, and 104 yards per game. In his other 52 career games, he has averaged 7.2 targets, 4.5 catches, and 55 yards. He has topped 100 yards in eight of those 13 starts, including six of the last seven. Olave’s case is volume, with 13, 10, and 13 targets in his three games.

On DraftKings, where a full point per reception rewards that kind of volume, Olave is my favorite of the two. On FanDuel, London costs $10,800, which is less than both quarterbacks and $1,400 less than Olave, so I’ll lean more on London there. The extra exposure comes mostly out of the quarterbacks. Shough and Penix combine for 18% of the CPT ownership on DraftKings and 29% of the MVP ownership on FanDuel, and I’d rather have them in the FLEX spots next to their receivers.

Here are the players I’m targeting in the CPT/MVP spot tonight, with their DraftKings CPT prices:

Bijan Robinson ($17,700): Robinson has 467 yards from scrimmage through three games, and his 84.5 rushing yards prop is 46 yards higher than any other in the game. He’s the most expensive player on both sites and still the first name in my CPT/MVP pool.

Chris Olave ($16,200): Olave opened the season with 10 catches for 182 yards in Detroit and caught nine of 13 targets for 107 yards last week. His 84.5 receiving yards prop is the highest in the game, and his 6.5 receptions line is priced at -145 to the over.

Drake London ($15,000): London caught 68 passes for 919 yards and seven touchdowns in 12 games last season. His 82.5 receiving yards prop is two yards behind Olave’s, and his +110 anytime touchdown price is the shortest of any pass-catcher in the game.

For the FLEX positions, I’ll keep both kickers in the pool on a 47.5-point total. Nick Folk ($5,400) is 5-for-8 on field goals after making 28 of 29 last season, and Daniel Carlson ($4,800) is 4-for-5. They project within a point of each other in FLEX ownership on DraftKings at 25% and 26%, and I’ll own them about evenly. I again expect to be underweight on the defenses, though the Falcons D/ST ($3,600) has a case against a quarterback who has taken 10 sacks and fumbled five times. At the bottom of the salary list, Bryce Lance ($1,800) projects for 28% FLEX ownership on DraftKings and 26% on FanDuel, with Jahan Dotson ($3,000) at 14% and 10%. These are the mid-priced players I like most in the FLEX spots:

Alvin Kamara ($7,000): With Etienne on injured reserve, the market has Kamara as the Saints’ lead back with a 38.5 rushing yards prop to Miller’s 23.5. Kamara has 18 carries for 51 yards and six catches in his two games, and his +145 anytime touchdown price trails only Olave’s on the Saints. He’s $9,400 on FanDuel, more than Devaughn Vele and Juwan Johnson, so I’ll use him more on DraftKings.

Juwan Johnson ($7,400): Johnson caught 77 passes for 889 yards last season and has 15 catches for 173 yards and three touchdowns on 19 targets. He caught all eight of his targets against the Raiders and scored twice from inside the 3-yard line. His 44.5 receiving yards prop is tied with Vele’s for the second-highest on the Saints.

Kyle Pitts ($5,800): Pitts caught 88 passes for 928 yards last season and has two catches for 20 yards on six targets this year. The market still has his receiving yards prop at 30.5, with his 2.5 receptions line priced at -168 to the over. He’s $4,600 on FanDuel, which is less than both kickers and both defenses, so that’s where I’ll use him most.

With that player pool in mind, let’s move on to some lineup rules to consider for strong roster construction.

Lineup Rules to Consider

Here are some rules to consider when building lineups for this Showdown contest:

When I use Tyler Shough or Michael Penix Jr. at CPT, I’ll pair him with multiple receivers in the FLEX spots.
Both are prototypical passers. Penix has a 4.5 rushing yards prop, and Shough’s is 16.5, so if either lands at the CPT spot in a winning lineup, he’ll likely have to bring a couple of his pass-catchers along with him. Robinson counts as a receiver for Penix, and Kamara counts as one for Shough, since both running backs catch passes.

I’ll allow both Falcons RBs in the same lineup, and I’ll keep the Saints to one.
My usual rule is to limit rosters to one RB per team, since a big game from a backup usually comes at the expense of the starter. The Falcons are the exception tonight. Atlanta is averaging almost 35 rushes a game, and Brian Robinson Jr. ($3,800) had 10 carries for 50 yards and a touchdown in Green Bay on a night when Bijan ran 29 times. On the Saints’ side, it’s Kamara or Kendre Miller ($5,000), generally not both.

I’ll pair WRs in the CPT spot with their QB in the FLEX spots.
This is a common-sense correlation rule, and it matters more tonight with how much London and Olave I plan to use at CPT. If a WR has a big enough game to end up in the CPT spot, he likely added enough points to his QB to elevate him into a FLEX spot.

I’ll use, at most, two receivers from one team in the FLEX spots unless I’m using their QB as the CPT in that lineup.
If three receivers from one team land in the winning lineup, it’s likely their QB had the best day of all. Putting the QB at the CPT spot in this case makes logical sense.

A Look at the Prop Market

Let’s take a look at some player props that could provide insight into how the game might play out. Note that these aren’t betting recommendations, but they are props worth keeping in mind when building DFS lineups.

• Drake London - O/U 82.5 Receiving Yards, Over 6.5 Receptions (+115), Anytime Touchdown (+110)
  • DraftKings: $10,000 ($15,000 CPT)
• Chris Olave - O/U 84.5 Receiving Yards, Over 6.5 Receptions (-145), Anytime Touchdown (+125)
  • DraftKings: $10,800 ($16,200 CPT)

Comparing the prop market expectations for the two top wide receivers, we can see that the market has them two yards apart, with Olave at 84.5 receiving yards and London at 82.5. They share a 6.5 receptions line, with Olave’s overpriced at -145 and London’s at +115, and London has the shorter touchdown price at +110 to Olave’s +125. Olave is $800 more expensive on DraftKings and $1,400 more on FanDuel, and he projects for more ownership in the top spot on both sites, 17% to 11% at CPT on DraftKings and 14% to 8% at MVP on FanDuel. The receptions edge is why I prefer Olave on DraftKings. London gets nearly the same receiving yards expectation, and a better touchdown price for less salary and less ownership, and the salary gap is widest on FanDuel.

This Monday night Showdown gives us two 1-2 division rivals and a pair of wide receivers who can outscore the most popular player on the slate. Let’s build some sharp lineups, enjoy the game, and hope to cash in under the bright lights!