Jake's DK Top Plays and Best Bets for the Open Championship

Every week on Wednesday afternoons, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite DraftKings plays in this article with brief write-ups of each player. I will also include some of my “best bets” for the week as well. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward. I’ll include my top plays from the week prior, their DK Price, where they finished on the leaderboard, and how many DK points they scored. This article will be FREE every week, but with access to a 4for4 betting sub, you will get access to our discord and all of our bets (PGA + other sports).

Scottish Open Recap:

It was great to get all four top plays through the cut and not have one of them WD over the weekend. Fleetwood was the biggest letdown of the four with a low fantasy score and only a T34 finish. I noted that Fleet had been putting great since the putter change he made in April, but that hot streak on the greens came to a crashing halt as Fleet lost 0.8 strokes per round this past week. Hovland placed well but didn’t score amazingly, as he had zero eagles and didn’t have a streak. All in all, though, it was a good performance from Hovland, as he continues to be one of the best, if not the best, iron players on tour over the past month and a half.

Nicolai is very inconsistent, but he has had some crazy spikes with his irons and putter. With the recent consistency OTT, it felt like the perfect time to tee him up. Nicolai was one of the top World Tour golfers in 2023, and he showcased his experience and pedigree this past week with a T4 finish. Perez’s misses were too errant off the tee, but draining an eagle and having two birdie streaks boosted his DK score tremendously despite only finishing T43.

The Open Championship Rabbit Hole Model (see below for Top 40 in my model):

Using promo code: JAKE10, you will get your first month $10 (regularly $29.99).

With a BetSperts subscription, you will have full access to my model as well as Ryan Noonan's, Ron Klos’, and others every week. You can also create your own model too. You will also get access to the BetSperts discord, where Ron and Ryan release bets as well: Outrights, T5/10/20/40, H2H Matchups, 3Balls, etc.

Feel free to drop a message in the Discord channel or on Twitter with any questions you may have.

My Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• SG: TOT: L5 Years Ireland/UK
• SG: TOT: L5 Years; Windy
• SG: T2G: Last 20 rounds; recent form
• Total Driving: Last 50 rounds; missed fairway penalty average/high
• DFEF: Last 50 rounds; fairway accuracy difficult
• SG: APP: Last 50 rounds, small greens where it is NOT easy to gain on approach
• SG: ARG: Last 50 rounds; gain ARG difficult/very difficult

The Open Championship DraftKings Top Plays (DK Price, Outright Odds, Model Rank)

Jon Rahm, $10.4K, +12/1 Widely Available, 9th in model
Key Stats:

• 3rd in SG:T2G (Last 20 Rounds)
• 7th in SG:P (Last 3 Years Slow Greens)
• 4th in SG:BS (Last 2 Years High Miss Fairway Penalty)
• 4th in SG:TOT (Last 5 Years UK/Ireland)

After Rahm’s disastrous 2024 Major appearances, he’s now finished T14 at the Masters, T8 at the PGA Championship, and a T7 at the US Open this season. A $3,800 salary gap between Rahm and Scottie is too wide, and the flexibility Rahm gives you in roster construction is super important. In Rahm’s last five Open Championship starts, he has placed T7, T2, T34, T3, and T11. European golf fits Rahm’s game perfectly, and the once World No.1 is primed to win his 3rd major.

Viktor Hovland, $8.3k, 30/1 FD/DK, 11th in model

Key Stats:

• 6th in SG:T2G (Last 20 Rounds)
• 2nd in SG:APP (Last 24 Rounds)
• 4th in SG:BS (Last 50 Rounds High Miss Fairway Penalty)
• 24th in SG:P (L3 Years Slow Greens)

In Hovland's last three starts, he has finished 5th at the Scottish Open, 1st (after three rounds before withdrawing at the Travelers), and 3rd at the US Open in strokes gained approach. Hovland is reaching Scottie status with his approach play over the last month. If this level of iron play can continue, it negates the chipping woes and accuracy problems OTT, and gives Hovland one of the highest floors in the field. After Hovland's 3rd round on Saturday at the Scottish, Hovland said, "I will say I'm heading... more often I'm hitting better shots. It's going in the right direction, which is nice". Hovland is the biggest critic of himself, and it's extremely optimistic that he's finally speaking positively about the state of his game.

Russell Henley, $7.9K, +65/1 FD, 8th in model
Key Stats:

• 13th in SG:T2G (Last 20 Rounds; recent form)
• 3rd in DFEF (Last 50 Rounds Fairway accuracy difficult)
• 5th in GIR% (Last 50 rounds, gain OTT and APP difficult/very difficult)
• 9th in SG:BS (Last 50 rounds, gain OTT and APP difficult/very difficult)

Henley has been the definition of consistency the last couple of years on the PGA tour, and is having the best season of his career in 2025. The only knock on Henley this season was the missed cuts at the Majors (Masters and the PGA Championship), but he is coming off a T10 at the U.S. Open last month. Henley has only lost strokes on approach in ONE tournament this season (the PGA Championship), and is one of the most accurate drivers in the game. With tight fairways (~28 yards) and thick and penal rough this week, guys will need to be accurate OTT to be able to compete, and there is nobody better than Henley. Although he was not in the field last week at the Scottish Open, Henley finished in 5th place at last year’s Open Championship and should be someone near the top of the leaderboard again this year.

Kevin Yu, $5.8K, 200/1 Widely Available, 24th in model
Key Stats:

• 4th in TOT Driving (Last 2 Years Miss Fairway Penalty High)
• 3rd in GIR % (Last 50 Rounds Gain OTT/APP Difficult/Very Difficult)
• 18th in Scrambling Short Grass % (Last 50 Rounds Scrambling Short Grass Average/Difficult)
• 9th in SG:APP (Last 50 Rounds Small Greens Gain APP Average/Difficult/Very Difficult)

Yu has been a good ball striker for a couple of years now, but his inaccuracy OTT, and short game issues held him back in 2023 and 2024 from having consistent results. Fast forward to 2025, and Yu has straightened out his driver and cleaned up his short game this season, parlaying the progress in his game into six Top 20 finishes and two Top 5 finishes. Yu was one of the worst putters on tour last season, but last week marked his fourth straight tournament gaining strokes on the greens, and he has gained in six of his last seven starts putting. Yu has transformed his game this season, and I expect the results to continue to pour in, and why not in his first-ever Open Championship appearance?

PLAY OF THE WEEK: Jon Rahm

The Open Championship:

Bets possibly to come later on discord.

Betting Recap (last week and season):

Scottish Open: No bets

Overall: 32-68, -$490

-6.31% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop. On outrights and longshot bets, tracking smaller units or TO WIN X amount (specified on release)

Make sure to join Discord to get the rest of the bets for this week!

4for4 Additional Info:

Be sure to be in the 4for4 Discord, as I may push out additional plays that are not in the article, or there may be some odds movement on some of the bets. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here! Make sure to add the PGA-Betting Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Staff_Golf_Plays to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

For more betting content and takeaways, check out my Twitter (@JakeLotenberg2) and subscribe to our Discord. I’ll be tracking my best bet results at the end of each week and updating the article accordingly the following week.

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