Jake's DK Top Plays and Best Bets for the John Deere Classic

Jul 02, 2025

Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Every week on Wednesday afternoons, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite DraftKings plays in this article with brief write-ups of each player. I will also include some of my “best bets” for the week as well. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward. I’ll include my top plays from the week prior, their DK Price, where they finished on the leaderboard, and how many DK points they scored. This article will be FREE every week, but with access to a 4for4 betting sub, you will get access to our discord and all of our bets (PGA + other sports).

Rocket Classic Recap:

It’s been a couple of weeks since we had a good week when it comes to top plays, and last week wasn’t a step in the right direction. Cantlay headlined the top plays, and a R2 of 72 killed his tournament. Had Cantlay played a little better on Friday, he would’ve cake-walked to a Top 20 finish at the least. Cam was a letdown this past week. Although he didn’t do anything particularly poorly, his scorching hot putter finally cooled off, as he lost 0.02 strokes putting. I made note that Cam isn’t even comparable to the ball striker he used to be, so when the putting dips, he will not finish well. While Thompson blew up on Sunday and shot 73, he still paid off his price of 8100. Thompson only finished T34, but the three eagles he made carried his DK score.

Lastly, Jaeger, I knew that writing up and teeing off Jaeger in DFS meant I had to expect inaccuracy, but my goodness, I did not expect him to somehow find a penalty area (which he did on Hole 2 of R1). Jaeger straight up didn’t have it this week; Jaeger lost strokes on APP for the first time since the beginning of May and also had his worst tournament OTT of this season at a course that profiles well for his skill set.

John Deere Rabbit Hole Model (see below for Top 40 in my model):

Using promo code: JAKE10, you will get your first month $10 (regularly $29.99).

With a BetSperts subscription, you will have full access to my model as well as Ryan Noonan's, Ron Klos’, and others every week. You can also create your own model too. You will also get access to the BetSperts discord, where Ron and Ryan release bets as well: Outrights, T5/10/20/40, H2H Matchups, 3Balls, etc.

Feel free to drop a message in the Discord channel or on Twitter with any questions you may have.

My Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

SG: BS In 2025
SG: OTT - Last 50 rounds; easy/very easy gain OTT
Driving Accuracy; Last 18 months fairway accuracy easy/very easy
SG: App: Last 50 rounds; gain app easy/very easy
Overall 100-150: Short approach/wedge shots
BoB %: In 2025
BoB %: Last 18 months; scoring conditions easy/very easy
SG: Putting - In 2025

John Deere DraftKings Top Plays (DK Price, Outright Odds, Model Rank)

Ben Griffin, $10.4k, 16/1 FD/DK, 1st in model

Key Stats:

3rd in SG:APP (Last 36 Rounds)
2nd in SG:TOT (Last 50 Rounds Easy/Very Easy Scoring Conditions)
11th in SG:OTT (Last 30 Rounds)
14th in SG:P (in 2025)

Griffin has the highest ceiling and floor of any golfer in the field right now, the way he is playing. Griffin hasn’t finished outside of the Top 15 since early May at the Truist. Griffin is a lock for me in cash games.

Michael Thorbjornsen, $9.1K, +28/1 FD/DK, 19th in model

Key Stats:

3rd in SG:OTT (Last 30 Rounds)
6th in BoB% (in 2025)
3rd in SG:TOT (Last 5 Years at TPC Deere Run)
18th in SG:T2G (Last 16 Rounds)

Thorbjornsen was one of the highest-regarded amateurs coming out of college last summer, but he struggled with consistency in all aspects of his game once he turned pro. A few months back, Thorb found something OTT, without losing distance, he started to turn the corner accuracy-wise. Thorb has transformed into one of the best drivers of the ball on tour over the past few months. Thorb is coming off a T4 finish at the Rocket Classic, and that was after a made cut at the PGA Championship. Before last week, Thorb hadn't played for 5 weeks, and he teed it up with his new highly regarded caddie, JJ Jakovac. I am not a huge believer in SG:Caddie, but a caddie of Jakovac's profile can do wonders for a golfer, especially a young guy like Thorb. I don't think it's a coincidence that Thorb had his second-best week putting as a pro with Jakovac's first time on the bag for him. Thorb, as an amateur in 2023, finished T17 here and last year finished T2.

Mark Hubbard, $7.7K, +55/1 365/Kambi, 15th in model

Key Stats:

13th in SG:TOT (Last 5 Years at TPC Deere Run)
12th in SG:TOT (Last 50 Rounds Easy/Very Easy Scoring Conditions)
21st in BoB% (Last 50 Rounds Easy/Very Easy Scoring Conditions)
18th in Dr Accuracy % (Last 18 Months Fairway Acc Easy/Average)

Hubbard is playing his best golf since 2023, as I am writing him up. I am not big on buying high on golfers of Hubbard’s caliber, but Hubbard has always had success at TPC Deere Run, which makes me more confident in his ability to continue his success here. Hubbard has only missed one cut in the last 2 months, and that was at the US Open. Hubbard has gained strokes putting in seven straight tournaments and looks like he’s found some consistency with his iron play (besides his blow up at the US Open). Hubbard, where he is right now with his golf game, profiles as an overall average golfer. These past two months, there’s no glaring flaw in his game, and he’s sprinkled in a couple of spike tournaments with his putter.

Jackson Koivun, $6.8K, 125/1 MGM

With so little data on Koivun, it's irrelevant to mention his betsperts' ranks in specific categories; however, I will share some key stats from individual tournaments. Koivun is the #1 ranked amateur in the world and has dominated college golf at only 20 years old. Koivun has played in five PGA Tour events and has made the cut in three of them, but hasn't finished better than T48 at the API earlier this year. Despite the lackluster finishes, Koivun has flashed just how high his ceiling is. A few weeks ago at the US Open, Koivun was 7th in putting and 6th in approach after the first round. Koivun, earlier in the season at Bay Hill, where accuracy is at a premium, finished 14th in the field for Driving Accuracy on the week. This proves, just like his putting and approach at the US Open, that when Koivun is playing his game, the sky's the limit. I like betting on the uber-talented youngster at a birdie fest like TPC Deere Run, as easy courses like this are comparable to the ones he sees in college, where he has had so much success.

PLAY OF THE WEEK: Michael Thorbjornsen

John Deere:

Bets to come later on discord.

Betting Recap (last week and season):

Rocket Classic: No bets

Overall: 32-68, -$490

-6.31% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop. On outrights and longshot bets, tracking smaller units or TO WIN X amount (specified on release)

Make sure to join Discord to get the rest of the bets for this week!

4for4 Additional Info:

Be sure to be in the 4for4 Discord, as I may push out additional plays that are not in the article, or there may be some odds movement on some of the bets. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here! Make sure to add the PGA-Betting Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Staff_Golf_Plays to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

For more betting content and takeaways, check out my Twitter (@JakeLotenberg2) and subscribe to our Discord. I’ll be tracking my best bet results at the end of each week and updating the article accordingly the following week.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.