15 Overvalued and Undervalued Players: FFPC ADP vs 4for4 Rankings
Fantasy football drafts are in full swing and there’s no bigger fantasy tournament than the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). Using 4for4’s customizable projections and Multi-Site ADP Tool, the following article will highlight the most overvalued and undervalued players in FFPC drafts, relative to 4for4 projections.
Related: Prepare for your draft with our 2017 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
The additions of wide receiver DeSean Jackson and rookie tight end O.J. Howard has fantasy owners clamoring over Winston, but John Paulsen’s projections suggest the love may have gone too far. For one, it’s tough to justify a relatively high leverage pick on any quarterback outside the top five—Paulsen’s QB6 and QB15 are separated by just 17.6 projected fantasy points. While Jackson is a great offensive weapon to have, history suggests his presence actually helps a team’s rushing offense as much as the passing offense. As Paulsen pointed out on a recent episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Jackson’s teams have rushed for 123.2 yards when he is active and 98.7 yards when he is out. Head coach Dirk Koetter traditionally offers his backfields a large workload, and with three capable backs in Doug Martin, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Charles Sims, that is unlikely to change in 2017. Rather than targeting Winston, drafters could benefit by waiting a few more rounds and drafting similar production from any passer in the middle tier.
The Seahawks' passing rate has increased every year since Russell Wilson's rookie season, and their neutral passing rate was the 10th-highest in the league last season. On a team that continues to trend toward the pass, Eddie Lacy hasn’t even been running with the first team, instead playing behind Thomas Rawls this preseason. With C.J. Prosise expected to fill the third-down role and rookie seventh-rounder Chris Carson making a push for playing time, the Seahawks backfield could be a full-blown committee.
New Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy has stated this preseason he wants to get C.J. Anderson more involved in the passing game than he has been in the past, but McCoy has also traditionally favored a committee approach to his backfields. Jamaal Charles figures to see double-digit touches each week, and if McCoy utilizes Charles in the Danny Woodhead role in this offense, Anderson’s upside could be capped—Woodhead dominated red zone opportunities in McCoy’s offense. Even if CJA does prove to be the workhorse, the Broncos return largely the same unit that ranked 26th in percentage of drives that ended in a score last season.
This offseason, New Orleans signed Adrian Peterson to a two-year, $7 million contract, and drafted Alvin Kamara in the third round of the NFL draft. Peterson will almost certainly cut into Ingram’s goal-line touches—he has converted 45% of his career touches inside the 5 into scores, while Ingram has scored on 35% of his—and if AP is anywhere near his 2015 form, he will take over a significant chunk of Ingram’s overall workload. Kamara has already drawn comparisons to Marshall Faulk and is likely to take over the valuable Darren Sproles role in Payton’s offense. With touchdown vulture John Kuhn lurking as well, Ingram could be nothing more than a cog in a crowded running back committee.
In Marvin Jones’ first season in Detroit, he averaged nine targets per game in the first quarter of the season, but averaged just over six targets per game over the remaining 12 games, seeing double-digit targets just once during that span. As the preseason unfolds, reports suggest Golden Tate could move to the slot to make room for rookie Kenny Golladay on the outside. With Eric Ebron expected to take on a larger role this season, and arguably the best pass-catching running back in the league in Theo Riddick in the mix, Jones could find himself on the bottom of the target totem pole in Detroit.
In one of the more surprising developments of the offseason, Sammy Watkins was traded to the Rams on August 11, where he finds himself with a significant downgrade at quarterback, going from Tyrod Taylor to Jared Goff. Before the trade, Paulsen had Watkins ranked as a top-15 fantasy receiver, but as a boom/bust player, the Rams new receiver could struggle to provide reliable PPR value in what was one of the more anemic offenses in 2016. New head coach Sean McVay is a significant upgrade over Jeff Fisher, but Goff will have to make a huge leap in his second season for fantasy owners to get excited about Watkins.
There’s a good chance Davante Adams regresses more than any other receiver in 2017. No receiver recorded a touchdown rate further above their career average than Adams last season, and his 9.9% scoring rate ranked 13th among 434 qualifying players (min. 100 targets) over the last 10 years. With tight Martellus Bennett now in the mix, former wide receiver Ty Montgomery set to get a full season as the starting running back, and Randall Cobb looming, Adams could have trouble duplicating his targets as well as his touchdowns.
Of all sites tracked by the Multi-Site ADP Tool, FFPC drafters are the highest on Brate. What’s more concerning than the addition of O.J. Howard is the fact Brate is likely to see his touchdown total drop without a significant uptick in volume. Brate ranked second among all players in red zone touchdowns last season, despite seeing the 20th-most red zone targets, converting half of his looks inside the 20 into scores.
You’ll be hard-pressed to find anyone higher on Mariota than Paulsen. Only Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady have a higher touchdown rate than Mariota since he entered the league and no quarterback has a higher scoring frequency in the red zone. Tennessee made a concerted effort to boost their passing game this offseason, drafting wide receiver Corey Davis with the fifth overall pick in the NFL draft and signing Eric Decker, who has the third-highest red zone touchdown rate among active receivers (min. 40 targets).
Even with A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert out for a combined 14 games last season, Cincinnati ranked 10th in yards per drive and seventh in percent of drives to reach the red zone, but ranked just 24th in touchdowns scored. Dalton is due for positive touchdown regression, and with a healthy Green and Eifert and rookie John Ross there to help stretch the field, the Bengals QB could be in for a career year.
Over the last two seasons, no team has targeted their running backs more or at a higher rate than the Ravens. While Baltimore may slant more toward the run this year than they have recently, Woodhead is likely to see relatively high-touch volume with Kenneth Dixon out for the season. Even with conservative projections for the Ravens offense and Woodhead’s touch share, he could easily approach PPR RB1 numbers this year.
With Latavius Murray missing most of the offseason, Dalvin Cook figures to start the season as the Vikings' primary back, and he may not even need a huge backfield share to meet his 4for4 ranking. Without any reliable backs on the roster last season, Vikings running backs combined for just 424 touches. After signing Murray, drafting Cook and overhauling their offensive line, the Vikings running back pie is likely to grow significantly in 2017. If Cook can secure even 60% of the team's running back touches, a 250-touch season is his floor.
Tyrell Williams is a positive touchdown regression candidate and with rookie Mike Williams out until at least October, Tyrell is locked into the WR2 role opposite Keenan Allen, who is a coin flip at best to stay healthy. The Chargers ranked eighth in red zone passing rate last season and Philip Rivers is consistently one of the most efficient touchdown scorers in the league.
On a Browns team that figures to have one of the lowest win totals in the league, under one of the most game script-dependent coaches in the league, Britt could see well over 130 targets in 2017. Chris Raybon has shown how efficient Britt has been, despite bad quarterback play, and suggests top-15 upside in a best-case scenario.
Last season, Rudolph led all tight ends in targets and red zone target share, finishing as the TE2 in PPR formats. Not much is expected to change going into 2017, as Paulsen has the Vikings tight end projected for the fourth-most catches and third-most touchdowns at the position. With a vastly improved offensive line, all the pieces in the Minnesota offense will be an upgrade over the 2016 iteration.
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