Why Every 2026 Fantasy Football First Round Pick Will Bust

When we draft our fantasy football teams, we should always look on the bright side of life. We usually do, at least I do. I want to imagine what these players can do at their very best. I picture myself beaming with pride when players hit, and indeed smash through, the ceilings I anticipated for them when I selected them. It’s nice to be positive.

Real life isn’t like that.

If we are brutally honest with ourselves, more players will fail to hit our lofty expectations than will hit them. It’s nothing personal; that’s just the way things go. So while it’s nice to be positive, it’s also important to remember that if things can go wrong, they often will.

With this cheerful mindset in place, here is why every player currently being taken in the first round of 12-team fantasy drafts, according to our multi-site ADP tool, will bust in 2026.

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1.01 Jahmyr Gibbs

Since entering the NFL three years ago, Jahmyr Gibbs is the RB3 in Half-PPR scoring. He has gobbled up touchdowns with a voracious appetite, finding the end zone 35 times on the ground and another 7 through the air. He has been simply sensational, even while sharing a backfield with David Montgomery. But even with Monty now in Houston, Gibbs will fall short of his own high standards in 2026.

It won’t be all his own fault, as the Lions will take advantage of a cakewalk schedule to keep Gibbs fresh for the business end of the season. Isaiah Pacheco will see a healthy amount of work, and not just in mop-up duty. Crucially, he may steal some looks at the goal line. Jared Goff will also rediscover his chemistry with Sam LaPorta, who will see something closer to the 21% target share he enjoyed as a healthy rookie than the 17% share he’s enjoyed banged up over the last two seasons. Gibbs holding a "hold in" during training camp might not be the best preparation for the new season, either.

1.02 Bijan Robinson

The best running back in fantasy football over the last three seasons, Bijan Robinson should be one of the first two players selected in 2026. But the passing work, on which a large chunk of his value has been based, will disappear in the coming season. Robinson leads all backs with 243 targets and 186 receptions since 2023. But while he should still see some checkdowns, thanks to the less-than-stellar mobility on display by whichever southpaw quarterback the Falcons trot out, the looks in the short-intermediate areas of the field will now go to the reborn Kyle Pitts.

The Falcons may also decide their other BRob, Brian Robinson, can be trusted when they hit the goal line. Brian has 19 touchdowns from 10 yards or less in his NFL career. There is also the danger that the Falcons' defense, which showed signs of improvement last season, falls off due to injuries to key players.

1.03 Ja’Marr Chase

Ja’Marr Chase has benefited from a healthy amount of receiving opportunities over the last four seasons. Only Malik Nabers averages more looks per game than Chase since 2022 (10.7), while Chase leads the NFL with 7.2 receptions per game. It has been glorious to be a Chase manager. But the Bengals have been mostly mediocre in that span, which has helped Chase post glorious numbers.

What if they take advantage of a soft schedule, and their defense meets the offense halfway, and Joe Burrow doesn’t have to air the ball out as often as he has? It’s worth remembering that the last time the Bengals made the Super Bowl, Chase only averaged 4.8 receptions per game. He has been nowhere near the 18 yards per reception mark he enjoyed that season, so his receptions and yardage totals may well take a significant dip. He’s still a good bet for double-digit touchdowns, but can this scoring bridge the gap?

1.04 Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua has been in a hurry since entering the league. He averages 95.3 receiving yards per game in his career, the most of any player in NFL history. In 2025, he led the league with 129 receptions and 107.2 yards per game. His quarterback, Matthew Stafford, led the NFL with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns. All of this was sauce for the Nacua goose. But the Rams have decided that, in 2026, they will ask their defense to do some more of the heavy lifting.

With Myles Garret in town, and potentially the returning Aaron Donald, Stafford might not be forced to take to the air 35 times a game. The Rams might be able to lean on their rushing attack to close out games. This will see Nacua lose out on targets and, by definition, receiving yards. There is also the danger he might say or do something daft off the field that sees him miss time, but I prefer to stay out of those waters, even in this exercise.

1.05 Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba WAS the Seattle passing attack in 2025, leading the league with 1,793 receiving yards. He was comfortably the WR2 in Half-PPR scoring. But the Seahawks offense, while still leaning on their stud wideout, should get more players involved in the receiving game in 2026. Rashid Shaheed should be fully integrated after an offseason building chemistry with his quarterback.

The Seahawks will, as we know, lean on the ground game to a healthy extent. Plus there is the ever-present danger that, of the eight players with at least 1,700 yards in a season since 2000, the average yardage dropoff the next season is 1,066 yards. I doubt JSN will fall that far, but we shouldn’t expect an exact repeat of last season.

1.06 Christian McCaffrey

At the time of writing, the only healthy members of the 49ers receiving corps are Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. But expecting this to remain the status quo is a dangerous occupation. McCaffrey was the engine of the operation a season ago, with 1,200 rushing yards and over 900 receiving yards on his way to the overall RB1 in Half-PPR. He also led the league with 413 total touches. McCaffrey has led the league in touches three times in his career. On the other two occasions, he followed up those seasons by playing in three games, and then a mere four. Injuries happen, and while we hope they don’t, this is not an article for rosy thinking.

1.07 Amon-Ra St.Brown

Amon-Ra St.Brown has finished as the WR3 in Half-PPR formats in the last three seasons. Since entering the league in 2021, he leads the league with 547 receptions and sits fourth in receiving yards with 6,252. He’s been one of the safest fantasy players around. But an easy schedule for the Lions means they can lean on their ground game more than they have needed to in recent years, meaning fewer pass attempts for Jared Goff and fewer opportunities through the air for St.Brown and his fellow receivers.

1.08 Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor was the RB2 in Half-PPR scoring a year ago, and at one point in the season looked like running away with the Offensive Player of the Year prize. His 2025 form should be enough to encourage drafters to take him here.

But there is a danger that the player who was in the backfield with a healthy Daniel Jones might not appear in 2026, and the player who played with whatever flotsam the Colts trotted out at quarterback after Jones went down may have drafters, and the Colts, who just gave Taylor a brand new deal, holding their heads in their hands. Taylor averaged 23.3 Half-PPR points per game when Jones was healthy last year. In games without the former Giant? Just 11.8. We are talking RB1 to RB22 here.

1.09 CeeDee Lamb

It might be easy to attribute CeeDee Lamb’s down season last year just to injury, and be prepared to chalk it off and expect a return to the player we know and love. Lamb posted his fewest receptions per game (5.4) in five seasons last year, while also posting career-lows in catch rate (64.1%) and touchdowns (three). But while we would love to say this was a one-year blip, the truth of the matter is that Lamb has seen his receptions, yards, and catch rate drop in each of the last TWO seasons.

Even if his skills remain undiminished, what if the Cowboys defense under Christian Parker is one of the most improved units in the entire NFL? This could mean the Cowboys don’t have to pass the ball 60% of the time, like they have done in the three seasons since Brian Schottenheimer arrived in Dallas. Maybe Dak Prescott realises it’s just more efficient to throw to George Pickens than Lamb. He averages 9.67 Adjusted Yards per Attempt when targeting Pickens, and “just” 8.56 when looking for Lamb. But this was 9.67 and 7.60 a year ago.

1.10 Ashton Jeanty

Ashton Jeanty wasn’t amazing in his rookie season, but he wasn’t terrible either. He finished as the RB17 in Half-PPR scoring, while establishing himself as a checkdown target for his quarterback and the lead dog in the backfield. But while Kirk Cousins is devoted to feeding his running backs targets, what if Cousins doesn’t fulfill the team's hopes of starting all season, and gives way to Fernand Mendoza early on?

What if the new, slimmed-down Jeanty is unable to seize command of the goal line work (should the Raiders get to the goal line often enough to matter), and his new lighter frame doesn’t stand up to the rigours of a full bell-cow workload? What if the Raiders are still so bad they never get a chance to establish a ground game? Would it have been better to take Brock Bowers here if you desperately needed to take a Raider?

1.11 Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson

endured a woeful 2025 season, finishing outside the top 24 wide receivers in fantasy points per game while setting career-lows in receiving yards, receptions, yards per reception, receiving touchdowns, and catch percentage. The Vikings are hoping that Kyler Murray comes in and improves the offense, elevating Jefferson back to the mountain top after J.J. McCarthy fell off a cliff and took Jefferson down with him. But what if Murray is shot, and McCarthy wins the job just by looking slightly better than Murray? You want to spend your first-round pick on a player who you pray has one or two usable fantasy weeks? I don’t.

1.12 James Cook

James Cook has made his fantasy money over the last two seasons by rushing for yards and scoring touchdowns on the ground, all the while offering very little as a receiver. But while he has a healthy 50 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line since 2024, his quarterback, Josh Allen, has 40.

What if, with former offensive coordinator Joe Brady now running the entire organisation, the head coach decides he wants to keep using Allen as the hammer at the goal line? What if the Bills, liking what they see from the backs they actually use to catch passes, decide more of a committee is called for when divvying up the rushing work? Cook will likely still command the bulk of the work between the 20s, but without those high-value touches, can we trust him to finish as a top-12 back?