O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 9

Oct 29, 2025

Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 9 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
3	IND	PIT	31	28
14	CHI	CIN	30	16
18	ARI	DAL	32	14
13	PIT	IND	26	13
9	SF	NYG	21	12
4	DET	MIN	14	10
5	KC	BUF	12	7
6	LAR	NO	13	7
20	SEA	WAS	27	7
12	DAL	ARI	16	4
19	ATL	NE	22	3
22	BAL	MIA	24	2
15	WAS	SEA	17	2
10	GB	CAR	11	1
2	BUF	KC	3	1
17	NYG	SF	18	1
32	CLE	BYE	32	0
25	NYJ	BYE	25	0
7	PHI	BYE	7	0
11	TB	BYE	11	0
1	DEN	HOU	1	0
29	MIA	BAL	28	-1
31	CIN	CHI	29	-2
8	NE	ATL	5	-3
28	LVR	JAX	25	-3
24	MIN	DET	19	-5
26	CAR	GB	20	-6
16	JAX	LVR	9	-7
23	LAC	TEN	7	-16
21	TEN	LAC	4	-17
27	NO	LAR	10	-17
30	HOU	DEN	2	-28

Cardinals @ Cowboys

Kyler Murray returns at just the right time, against a Cowboys defense that allows 273.1 passing yards per game, in addition to ranking dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to both opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers. He’ll have the tall task of putting an end to the five-game skid the Cardinals are currently on, but we’re not concerned with who ends up in the win column; only that the total for this game sits at 54.5, the highest of the week, and one of the highest totals you’ll see all season.

While the Cowboys have a middling pass rush (36.4% pressure rate - 15th), their secondary has been routinely shredded, allowing 0.19 EPA per dropback (30th) and a 90.4% deserved catch rate (32nd), which basically highlights the fact that their defenders are poor at winning the battle at the catch point. This could (should) point toward a rare matchup in which we can trust Marvin Harrison Jr. to deliver, as we’ve seen a huge swing in his contested catch rate from his rookie season (42.1%-to-70.0%).

Even if Murray isn’t running around as much as usual as he recovers from his foot sprain, we should expect him to deliver a solid QB1 performance in this matchup, while Harrison and Trey McBride are easy Week 9 clicks.

Bears @ Bengals

If the Jets’ 23-point fourth quarter didn’t prove that anyone can score on the Bengals’ defense at any time, I don’t know what would. With edge rusher Trey Hendrickson working his way through a hip injury that eventually knocked him out of the game, Cincinnati mustered a modest 31.6% pressure rate, but the real issues came in the second level of the defense, where they allowed 6.82 yards after the catch to the likes of Tyler Johnson, Jeremy Ruckert, and Isaiah Williams.

The Bears not only offer a far better group of pass catchers ahead of their Week 9 matchup, but they also have an improving offensive line that should fare well against a potentially Hendrickson-less pass rush. Considering the Bengals blitz at the second-lowest rate in the league (19.8%), there’s a good chance Caleb Williams will not be feeling much heat this weekend, which bodes well for his fantasy aspirations. When pressured, Williams has a 2.87 adjusted yards per attempt (23rd/36 qualifying QBs) and -10.4% completion percentage over expected (34th), but when operating out of a clean pocket, those numbers jump up to 8.46 (12th/36) and 5.0% (16th).

Consider Williams a low-end QB1, while Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore should operate as respective WR1 and WR3s. Colston Loveland is a fantastic streaming option.

Colts @ Steelers

You could really attack this matchup in any way you’d like, but instead of throwing this down in the “Favorable Running Back” section, I figured it would be more fun to approach this in a manner that wasn’t “play Jonathan Taylor”.

The remarkable efficiency in the ground game has translated into a similar efficiency through the air, where Daniel Jones ranks third in adjusted yards per attempt (8.42), behind only Jordan Love (8.45) and fellow career-reviver Sam Darnold (8.74). He’s been fantastic all year long, but has really turned it on over the past month, notching a 70.5% completion rate and nine touchdowns, coming in as the QB9 (21.1 FPPG) in the last four games, despite running for a grand total of 32 yards combined.

Tyler Warren (18-229-3) and Michael Pittman Jr. (22-212-3) have been the most obvious beneficiaries over this last month, but Alec Pierce (9-215-0) has also been getting there on the long ball. Pierce actually leads the league in air yards share (55.1%) since Week 5, putting up a nice 12.3 half-PPR points in Week 7. With the Steelers likely doing all they can to stop Taylor this week, Pierce is an interesting boom/bust FLEX option.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Rams vs. Saints

With Erik McCoy hitting the season-ending IR, New Orleans Saints center Luke Fortner logged his first start since the 2023 season (Jaguars) and performed quite well, allowing only one pressure to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ front. Things figure to be a little more difficult in Week 9, as the Rams have the league’s second-highest pressure rate (17.8%) from defenders lined up as a DT. Much of that has to do with Kobie Turner, who has 25 pressures on the year and ranks fifth in pass-block win rate (13%) among interior players. He will have plenty of chances to cause mayhem across from Fortner and converted tackle Trevor Penning, who ranks 54th out of 60 qualifying guards in pass-block efficiency (95.9).

It’s looking like rookie Tyler Shough will get the starting nod at quarterback, a week after he and Spencer Rattler combined for two interceptions, five sacks taken, and only three points on the scoreboard. The Rams' defense should be streamed anywhere available.

Chargers @ Titans

The Tennessee Titans' offensive line has been improving throughout the year, but it’s not quite enough to keep Cam Ward upright, as he leads the league in sacks taken per game (4.25) and has the lowest rate of dropbacks per sack (9.35). It’s not entirely the o-line’s fault —their 38.1% pressure rate allowed ranks a modest 16th— but Ward’s 28.1% pressure-to-sack rate ranks 34th out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks.

Because these sacks create such a D/ST floor —and a lack of Titans’ scoring output does nothing to sway it— Tennessee ranks 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, locking them in as a weekly target.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
5	KC	BUF	27	22
9	SF	NYG	29	20
14	CHI	CIN	32	18
8	NE	ATL	20	12
18	ARI	DAL	30	12
3	IND	PIT	15	12
6	LAR	NO	17	11
4	DET	MIN	12	8
23	LAC	TEN	31	8
12	DAL	ARI	19	7
1	DEN	HOU	8	7
17	NYG	SF	23	6
16	JAX	LVR	21	5
2	BUF	KC	6	4
22	BAL	MIA	25	3
32	CLE	BYE	32	0
25	NYJ	BYE	25	0
7	PHI	BYE	7	0
11	TB	BYE	11	0
29	MIA	BAL	28	-1
10	GB	CAR	9	-1
13	PIT	IND	11	-2
20	SEA	WAS	18	-2
31	CIN	CHI	26	-5
15	WAS	SEA	10	-5
21	TEN	LAC	14	-7
19	ATL	NE	5	-14
30	HOU	DEN	13	-17
24	MIN	DET	4	-20
28	LVR	JAX	7	-21
26	CAR	GB	3	-23
27	NO	LAR	2	-25

Chiefs @ Bills

The Buffalo Bills came out of their bye and beat the brakes off the Carolina Panthers 40-9, but their defense still ranks 27th in RB aFPA after allowing Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard to combine for 88 yards and a touchdown on the ground. While the Chiefs' backfield has been one to stay away from due to their three-headed attack, things should look a little cleaner this week, with Isiah Pacheco being listed as “week-to-week” due to an MCL sprain suffered in Week 8.

This leaves Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith (and maybe Elijah Mitchell for a few snaps) to scrap over playing time, with the rookie potentially taking a lot of the third-down snaps in what should be a competitive game. If Pacheco is eventually ruled out, Hunt should be considered an RB2, with Smith as a low-end RB3.

Patriots vs. Falcons

Our dreams of a TreVeyon Henderson breakout were revived last week when he rushed for 75 yards on ten attempts, but a majority of that usage came in the second half of their 32-13 win over the Browns, and was regretfully capped with a lost fumble. It also marked the second-straight game in which he was not targeted, highlighting his non-existent role on third downs and in the two-minute drill. We can still hold out hope for Henderson (even though their bye week isn’t until Week 14), but this is definitely another Rhamondre Stevenson week, and he should be an easy RB2 click against the Falcons.

Atlanta’s defense has ranked as highly as No. 1 in DVOA, but has had a rough time stuffing the run as of late. They currently rank 31st in adjusted line yards (4.84) and have allowed 131 rushing yards to non-quarterbacks since their Week 5 bye, the sixth-most in the NFL over that span.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: