O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 14

Dec 03, 2025

Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 14 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
4	BUF	CIN	31	27
2	IND	JAX	29	27
6	DET	DAL	32	26
17	DAL	DET	26	9
11	SEA	ATL	19	8
20	MIN	WAS	28	8
8	PIT	BAL	14	6
16	GB	CHI	22	6
1	DEN	LVR	6	5
12	WAS	MIN	17	5
3	LAR	ARI	7	4
18	BAL	PIT	21	3
27	CAR	BYE	27	0
22	NE	BYE	22	0
10	NYG	BYE	10	0
7	SF	BYE	7	0
5	CHI	GB	5	0
9	PHI	LAC	9	0
15	ATL	SEA	15	0
21	MIA	NYJ	20	-1
29	CLE	TEN	27	-2
28	NYJ	MIA	25	-3
30	NO	TB	24	-6
19	ARI	LAR	12	-7
13	TB	NO	4	-9
26	JAX	IND	16	-10
23	HOU	KC	13	-10
14	KC	HOU	3	-11
25	TEN	CLE	11	-14
24	CIN	BUF	2	-22
32	LAC	PHI	8	-24
31	LVR	DEN	1	-30

Colts @ Jaguars

The Colts will head down to Jacksonville this weekend in hopes that the Jaguars’ defense will be the medicine this passing attack needs to cure what ails them. Over the past three games, Daniel Jones has looked a little more like the New York Giants’ version of himself, mustering only 212.3 yards per game and a 74.4% on-target rate, a sharp decline from his 267.1, 76.2% rates from the first nine weeks of the season.

While the Jags’ pass rush —led by Josh Hines-Allen— can create explosives on the defensive side of the ball, their secondary can be pretty susceptible to allowing explosives from the other side of the ball. Since the team’s Week 8 bye, they have stymied the Chargers and Titans’ passing attack (with both teams’ o-lines in various stages of disarray) but allowed an average of 29.7 points and 297.7 passing yards to the trio of Jacoby Brissett, Davis Mills, and Geno Smith. Not exactly world-beaters playing behind top-shelf offensive lines themselves.

Behind one of the league’s elite units, Daniel Jones should be able to return to form here against a team that aFPA heavily downgrades as the 29th-ranked unit when adjusting for schedule. He’s once again a top-15 option, while Michael Pittman Jr. and Tyler Warren should find themselves in all lineups, with Alec Pierce operating as a WR3 with upside for more.

Lions vs. Cowboys

These are two teams, surprisingly, headed in opposite directions at this point of the season, but we don’t care about all that in Fantasyland. What’s far more important is this massive 54.5-point total, which is among the highest we’ll be looking at all season long. For comparison’s sake, this week’s Browns-Titans fiasco currently has a 33.5-point total. Just two different sports being played in two different cities.

The most shocking news surrounding the Lions’ offensive line over the past week was the announced un-retirement of center Frank Ragnow, who was all caped up and ready to add a boost to the interior before it was announced that he had a Grade 3 hamstring strain that put the kabosh on that. The second-most shocking occurrence was Penei Sewell being credited with his first sack since Week 17 of the 2024 season, adding on to a day in which Jared Goff took three.

Dallas’s defense is much improved since some mid-season moves, but this should still be a situation where Detroit’s descending —but still league-average— front five can hold its own. Even with the improvements, the Cowboys still rank 32nd in defensive DVOA and 32nd in both QB and WR aFPA; a metric that rolls in 10-week spans to stay up-to-date. Goff is a QB1 option here, while Jameson Williams and a potentially returning Amon-Ra St. Brown can be locked into this shootout.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Buccaneers vs. Saints

Tyler Shough is coming off arguably his best to-date start, but that hasn’t changed much in the betting markets, as the Saints head into Week 14 as 8.5-point home underdogs. While Shough’s 87.1% adjusted completion percentage was easily the best of his young career, he also took four sacks behind an offensive line that has the league’s highest blown block rate (4.26%) in the passing game.

This divisional matchup will pair that o-line against a Bucs’ defense that finished the prior showdown with 26 fantasy points, including five sacks and four forced turnovers.

Dolphins @ Jets

The Jets don’t have a ton to hang their collective hats on this season, but one undeniable bright spot has been the play of their two young, first-round tackles. Though Olu Fashanu (2024) and Armand Membou (2025) have combined to allow 11 sacks, they have proven more than adequate and should be two cornerstones to work with for many years to come. What’s less promising is the interior of the line, where RG Alijah Vera-Tucker was supposed to continue his growth next to Membou before tearing a triceps back in September, eliminating this entire season. Even with the two young tackles holding down the fort, the Jets offensive line is dead last in both adjusted sack rate (11.4%) and QB pressure rate allowed (49.2%).

Though Justin Fields invited a lot of that pressure himself, Tyrod Taylor has also taken 14 sacks on 166 dropbacks, an 8.4% rate that ranks seventh-highest among 42 qualifying quarterbacks. This week, they’ll take on a Dolphins defense that has racked up 33 fantasy points over their last three games. Two of those were against the Saints and the Marcus Mariota-led Commanders, but the third was against the Buffalo Bills. When these two teams met back in Week 4 —albeit with Jaelen Phillips still on the roster— Miami had a massive 54.3% pressure rate, the highest mark of that slate.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
4	BUF	CIN	32	28
1	DEN	LVR	27	26
6	DET	DAL	26	20
11	SEA	ATL	28	17
9	PHI	LAC	23	14
3	LAR	ARI	17	14
20	MIN	WAS	30	10
2	IND	JAX	12	10
5	CHI	GB	14	9
24	CIN	BUF	29	5
21	MIA	NYJ	25	4
16	GB	CHI	18	2
12	WAS	MIN	13	1
8	PIT	BAL	9	1
27	CAR	BYE	27	0
22	NE	BYE	22	0
10	NYG	BYE	10	0
7	SF	BYE	7	0
13	TB	NO	10	-3
15	ATL	SEA	11	-4
29	CLE	TEN	24	-5
30	NO	TB	22	-8
26	JAX	IND	15	-11
14	KC	HOU	3	-11
32	LAC	PHI	20	-12
28	NYJ	MIA	16	-12
18	BAL	PIT	6	-12
17	DAL	DET	4	-13
19	ARI	LAR	5	-14
25	TEN	CLE	7	-18
23	HOU	KC	2	-21
31	LVR	DEN	8	-23

Bills vs. Bengals

While the Bengals’ passing attack was already playing at a very high level, could the return of Joe Burrow have added a spark to defense? The Ravens were indeed held to only 14 points last week, but that theory will certainly be put to the test this weekend against a Buffalo Bills offensive line that could potentially be returning both LT Dion Dawkins and RT Spencer Brown. The Bills didn’t seem to have much of an issue running the ball without them, though, as James Cook and Ray Davis combined for 206 yards on the ground against the Steelers last week, a defense that’s —on paper— far better than what the Bengals have been running out all season.

On the year, Cincinnati ranks 32nd in defensive adjusted line yards (5.25), while notching a “stuff” (zero or fewer yards) on only 11.7% of non-QB runs, the lowest rate in the league. We’d like to see the return of both Bills’ tackles here, but it’s not likely to change Cook’s RB1 designation one way or the other. Ray Davis is probably a little too thin, even with the four byes this week, but he can be considered a deep-league dart throw who may sneak his way into the end zone.

Broncos @ Raiders

The Broncos are going to continue to run this mind-numbing three-back rotation whether we like it or not, but luckily there’s still enough fantasy goodness for at least one option to hit. That should (presumably) remain RJ Harvey, who found the end zone twice on 17 opportunities in the team’s first game out of their bye. While it marked his most usage since Week 4, it was also the fourth-straight game finishing with less than 3.0 YPA. Of the 49 running backs with at least 25 carries over that span, the rookie ranks dead last in yards after contact (1.8) and broken-plus-missed tackle rate (3.3%).

Those numbers could look a little better if the team didn’t have such solidified RB roles, where the defense has a clue what’s going to happen before the ball’s snapped, but that’s probably too much to ask. Regardless, the Raiders have allowed the second-most touchdowns on the ground this season (17) and are currently 7.5-point underdogs. Harvey should see enough work to turn in a solid RB2 week.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: