O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 10

Nov 05, 2025

Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 10 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
2	BUF	MIA	25	23
7	DET	WAS	27	20
12	TB	NE	26	14
6	LAR	SF	20	14
1	DEN	LVR	13	12
11	CHI	NYG	23	12
18	NYG	CHI	29	11
3	PHI	GB	14	11
8	NE	TB	16	8
15	SEA	ARI	18	3
4	IND	ATL	7	3
16	WAS	DET	19	3
27	LAC	PIT	30	3
20	MIN	BAL	22	2
9	SF	LAR	10	1
29	CIN	BYE	29	0
13	DAL	BYE	13	0
5	KC	BYE	5	0
22	TEN	BYE	22	0
21	ATL	IND	21	0
30	HOU	JAX	28	-2
10	GB	PHI	8	-2
19	ARI	SEA	17	-2
23	BAL	MIN	15	-8
32	CLE	NYJ	24	-8
14	PIT	LAC	5	-9
24	CAR	NO	11	-13
25	NYJ	CLE	9	-16
17	JAX	HOU	1	-16
28	MIA	BUF	4	-24
26	LVR	DEN	2	-24
31	NO	CAR	6	-25

Bills @ Dolphins

The Buffalo Bills are riding high after having their way with the Kansas City Chiefs in a 28-21 Week 9 victory; a game we could very likely see happen again in a few months. Josh Allen did take three sacks (on only four OL pressures), but it didn’t matter in the grand scheme of things, as those sacks equalled his incompletions on a day where he earned 10.5 YPA.

Next up is a Miami Dolphins defense that ranks 24th in pressure rate (32.0%) and just traded away their best pass rusher (Jaelen Phillips) in the midst of a lost season. They held onto Bradley Chubb, but that shouldn’t be enough to worry us against soon-to-be Protector of the Year Dion Dawkins. The only cause for concern here is Allen not needing to attempt a pass in the fourth quarter of a blowout, but at that point, he’s probably accumulated enough fantasy points to satiate fantasy managers. With no deadline moves to the Bills’ pass-catchers, it should be more of the same: Khalil Shakir as a solid WR3, Keon Coleman as a boom/bust WR4/5, and Dalton Kincaid locked in as a TE1.

Buccaneers vs. Patriots

For as good as the public perception of the Patriots’ defense has been, they’re actually a little more susceptible to fantasy points from the quarterback position than we might think. Ranking 26th in QB aFPA, they’ve allowed the 10th-highest YPA (7.5) and have dropped down to 25th in defensive DVOA. Over the last month, New England is seventh in EPA allowed per dropback (-0.14), but they’ve also had arguably the easiest schedule in the league, facing quarterbacks that include Spencer Rattler, Cam Ward, Dillon Gabriel, and Michael Penix; all of whom are first- or second-year players and half of whom have or are about to lose their jobs.

They’ll have much stiffer competition this week, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head out of their bye with a fully healthy LT Tristan Wirfs and the potential return of RT Luke Goedeke. Goedeke hasn’t played a snap since Week 2, but if he’s back in the lineup, it gives the Bucs a tackle tandem that helped Tampa Bay finish the 2024 season with the league’s lowest pressure rate (23.6%). Even with the aforementioned soft schedule, the Patriots have allowed the fifth-highest completion rate (77.1%) to opposing quarterbacks when they are not able to force pressure.

Whether or not Chris Godwin is able to suit up in Week 10 (we’re presuming he is not), Emeka Egbuka is a slam-dunk WR1, and if the vet is sidelined, Tez Johnson is WR3-viable. Cade Otton is also alive and well as a TE streaming option.

Rams @ 49ers

Against a woebegone New Orleans Saints team in Week 9, the Los Angeles Rams' offensive line allowed only five pressures as Matthew Stafford completed a casual 75% of his 32 pass attempts for a 281-4-0 stat line. While this Week 10 matchup would have looked a lot more difficult had we been eyeing it a couple of months ago, the truth is, the 49ers pass-rush —and defense as a whole— is a much different unit than it was in September.

From Fred Warner to Nick Bosa to Mykel Williams to a potentially returning Bryce Huff, the 49ers are missing key staples of their defense, many of whom were on the field the last time these two teams played (October 2nd). The depleted unit will try its hand against a Rams offensive line that has returned to full health, with RT Rob Havenstein coming back after the team’s Week 8 bye to help prop Stafford to that QB7 performance against the Saints.

Keep an eye on the injury report for Puka Nacua, but if he’s good to go, he and Davante Adams are legit WR1 options, with Stafford a good bet as a low-end QB1.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Panthers vs. Saints

Heading into the week, the New Orleans Saints are dead last in blown block rate (3.85%). That was before shipping starting left guard Trevor Penning out to L.A. to presumably try to replace Joe Alt, who hit the season-ending IR from an ankle injury suffered over the weekend. The fallout from the Saints’ side of the deal should equate to Dillon Radunz sliding back into the starting lineup after filling in for Penning through the first two weeks of the season. The former second-round pick of the Tennessee Titans (2021) has performed as a below-replacement-level guard through his five-year career, boasting a 96.3 pass-block efficiency rate that would rank 50th out of 59 qualifying guards if applied to this season alone.

The other big trade that sent WR Rashid Shaheed to Seattle also lowers the ceiling on what was already a limited offense, making the Saints an even bigger target for opposing D/STs for the rest of the season. The Panthers are an easy D/ST selection for any managers who need a streaming play, and should be a chalky selection in Sunday DFS lineups.

Browns @ Jets

The New York Jets' offensive line has shown flashes of improvement throughout the season, but it's still been a wildly inconsistent group, allowing an incredible 49.2% QB pressure rate —by far the highest in the league. As such, Justin Fields has taken a sack on every 9.59 dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league. We still don’t know who will be taking the snaps in this game —or for how long— but that shouldn’t matter much, as Tyrod Taylor sits directly behind Fields with a sack every 10.1 dropbacks, the third-highest rate.

This has led to the Jets ranking 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, and with Myles Garrett coming into town, things figure to be worse before they get better. The Browns have 3+ sacks in six games this season, and with the New York sending away their two best defensive players at the trade deadline, Cleveland is the betting favorite in this game despite their own offensive troubles. Expect a nearly unwatchable, gritty, 1960s-style slog, with the Browns as an easy D/ST floor play.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
1	DEN	LVR	23	22
2	BUF	MIA	24	22
11	CHI	NYG	31	20
4	IND	ATL	21	17
10	GB	PHI	25	15
6	LAR	SF	20	14
8	NE	TB	19	11
18	NYG	CHI	27	9
7	DET	WAS	16	9
20	MIN	BAL	28	8
14	PIT	LAC	17	3
3	PHI	GB	5	2
29	CIN	BYE	29	0
13	DAL	BYE	13	0
5	KC	BYE	5	0
22	TEN	BYE	22	0
28	MIA	BUF	26	-2
15	SEA	ARI	11	-4
21	ATL	IND	15	-6
24	CAR	NO	18	-6
19	ARI	SEA	13	-6
17	JAX	HOU	9	-8
9	SF	LAR	1	-8
12	TB	NE	4	-8
32	CLE	NYJ	22	-10
16	WAS	DET	3	-13
26	LVR	DEN	12	-14
23	BAL	MIN	7	-16
31	NO	CAR	14	-17
27	LAC	PIT	8	-19
30	HOU	JAX	10	-20
25	NYJ	CLE	2	-23

Broncos vs. Raiders

The Denver Broncos rank top-10 in both adjusted line yards (4.53) and RB yards before contact (1.81) in a game where they’re 9.5-point favorites. What else is there to say? Though the Raiders didn’t end up trading away any major defensive pieces (i.e., Maxx Crosby), this is still a fantastic matchup of varying degrees for both J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey.

Dobbins still has a massive hold on Denver’s rushing share (58.8% over the last two weeks), Harvey has cashed in with a 33.8% route participation in these last two games, as well as his surprising 3-touchdown performance in Week 8. Both are very much playable as fringe RB2/3s, but Dobbins has the higher floor.

Bears vs. Giants

The Week 5 bye couldn’t have come at a better time for the Chicago Bears, as it gave them a chance to take a breath after a whirlwind opening month with tons of moving parts across the entire offense. They were able to decipher new roles for their rookies, draw up some Ben Johnson-esque plays, and maybe most importantly, lock down an offensive line.

Over the last four games, the Bears have averaged a league-leading 186.5 rushing yards per game and now rank third in adjusted line yards (5.22) and second in RB yards before contact. This has coincided with two separate breakout performances out of rookie Kyle Monangai: a 16.4-point Week 7 and a massive 21.3-point performance last week. While the team expected a D’Andre Swift return sooner rather than later, they also just hosted four different running backs (Israel Abanikanda, Raheem Blackshear, Montrell Johnson Jr., and ShunDerrick Powell) for workouts only yesterday.

As things stand, this looks to be Monangai’s backfield for at least one more week, which makes him an RB1 option.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: