Quarterback Sleepers, Values & Breakouts (2025)

Aug 11, 2025

Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

The 2025 quarterback landscape seems top-heavy. After the first four or five players–Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, and maybe Joe Burrow–there isn’t much consensus on who should round out the top 12. The QB6 to, say, QB20 ranks are very debatable, and this should present market inefficiencies that savvy managers can exploit on draft day.

But before I get into that, let’s take a look back at last year’s iteration of this article to see how things ended up:

My three “values” were Jared Goff (QB7), Tua Tagovailoa (QB14 on a per-game basis), and Trevor Lawrence (QB11 through nine weeks, prior to injury). They were drafted QB15, QB14, and QB16, respectively, so Goff smashed expectations while Lawrence outperformed expectations by a sizable margin.
The three “breakouts,” Anthony Richardson (QB17 in 10 non-injury games), Jayden Daniels (QB3), and Caleb Williams (QB14), were pretty hit or miss. Daniels was my top target at the position, and he smashed expectations as the QB12 off the board. Richardson (ADP QB6) was a disappointment, while Williams (ADP QB13) basically met his expectations.
My rookie QB model projected 43.9 rushing yards per game and 4.7 rushing touchdowns for Daniels, and he rushed for 52.4 yards per game with six touchdowns.
One sleeper (QB5 Baker Mayfield) and one deep sleeper (QB8 Sam Darnold) delivered in a big way. Aaron Rodgers (QB16), Geno Smith (QB15), and Matthew Stafford (QB18) delivered solid QB2-type numbers.

Note: Be sure check out the QB Deep Dive episode of The Most Accurate Podcast with Andy Behrens. Also, use code JOHN25 for 25% off any 4for4 subscription.