Week 17 Breakout Player Model: Top Contrarian NFL DFS Plays

Dec 30, 2022
Week 17 Breakout Player Model: Top Contrarian NFL DFS Plays

One of the biggest advantages you can deploy in daily fantasy is buying low on a player who has fallen out of favor with the rest of the field but is set up for a smash week. The 4for4 Player Stat Explorer is home to a model that compares a fantasy player's actual fantasy output with their expected fantasy output, based on their usage and historical data. The goal is to highlight players that have had the requisite usage (snaps, targets, air yards, etc) to produce big fantasy outcomes, but due to the natural variance of the sport have yet to do so. Many times, those underperforming players will be low-owned in DFS and make for fantastic contrarian plays, which this article will highlight.

More Week 17 DFS Strategy: Cash Game Breakdown | GPP Breakdown | Daigle’s Top Values and Picks | WR/CB Matchups

Fantasy Points Over Expectation, Weeks 14–16
Player Team Pos Fantasy PPG Exp Fantasy PPG Fantasy PPG Over Exp.
DeAndre Hopkins ARI WR 9.4 20.5 -11.1
Mike White NYJ QB 14.8 25.5 -10.7
Nelson Agholor NE WR 4.4 13.4 -9.0
Nick Foles IND QB 2.7 11.2 -8.5
Drake London ATL WR 14.7 22.2 -7.5
Tom Brady TB QB 16.1 23.4 -7.3
Michael Pittman IND WR 10.2 17.5 -7.3
Marquise Brown ARI WR 7.4 14.6 -7.2
Amari Cooper CLE WR 9.3 16.2 -6.9
Colt McCoy ARI QB 6.8 13.6 -6.8
John Wolford LA QB 8.0 14.5 -6.5
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL WR 3.0 9.4 -6.4
Marcus Mariota ATL QB 11.4 17.2 -5.8
Garrett Wilson NYJ WR 13.9 19.7 -5.8
Trace McSorley ARI QB 4.8 10.6 -5.8
Elijah Moore NYJ WR 7.2 12.7 -5.6
Aaron Rodgers GB QB 12.9 18.3 -5.5
Julio Jones TB WR 5.4 10.8 -5.4
Mike Evans TB WR 9.0 14.3 -5.3
Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB 10.7 16.0 -5.2
Justin Herbert LAC QB 14.0 19.2 -5.2
Corey Davis NYJ WR 6.5 11.6 -5.2
Tutu Atwell LA WR 5.9 11.0 -5.1
Davante Adams LV WR 14.5 19.6 -5.1
Quez Watkins PHI WR 5.6 10.7 -5.0
Dalton Schultz DAL TE 7.7 12.7 -5.0
Mack Hollins LV WR 8.1 13.1 -5.0
Allen Lazard GB WR 8.2 13.0 -4.8
Keenan Allen LAC WR 20.4 25.1 -4.8
Chris Godwin TB WR 15.3 20.0 -4.7

WR Drake London, Falcons ($6,700 FD/$4,900 DK)

Drake London remains on the breakout list despite averaging 15 fantasy points per game over his last three. That tells me he is in for a real ceiling game. Over the last month, London has the highest target share of any receiver in the NFL at 40%. He has a 47% air yards share and has seen two of three end zone targets as well. He gets a home matchup with a friendly Cardinals' secondary.

Usually, when a player returns to the breakout model article it's because they failed the previous week and we are trying to hit some flop lag and give them one more week to hit their potential. London has actually been playing well, so the fact that he is still popping on the breakout model tells you that 15 PPR points per game is actually underperforming his expectations. In two of his last three games, he was only a few yards away from the 100-yard DraftKings bonus. We're hoping for the bonus and a touchdown this week to turn that run-of-the-mill 15 fantasy point week into a 25+ fantasy point week.

QB Mike White, Jets ($7,000 FD/$5,400 DK)

WR Garrett Wilson, Jets ($7,300 FD/$5,500 DK)

Wilson and White check in as players who have underperformed in their time on the field. Both will have an opportunity to hit their ceiling in an away game against a Seahawks defense that is very beatable through the air. In three games with White as the starter, White targeted Wilson 30 times which resulted in 19 receptions, 335 yards, and two touchdowns. These numbers equate to about 22 fantasy points per game for Wilson.

White's return from the rib injury is a welcomed swap for the Jets away from Zach Wilson who is basically getting booed out of MetLife Stadium every time he walks to the sideline. White landed on the breakout model because he only had one game in the designated timeframe, so he technically isn't someone that I would say has underperformed, but if you're slotting in Wilson, you may as well use him in stacks with White, and potentially a bring back with DK Metcalf.

QB Tom Brady, Buccaneers ($7,200 FD/$6,100 DK)

WR Chris Godwin, Buccaneers ($7,300 FD/$6,800 DK)

Both Tom Brady and Chris Godwin landed on the breakout player model as players who are underperforming given their expected fantasy points. Brady and Godwin are performing at a rate of 7.3 and 4.7 fantasy points under expectation respectively. Godwin is averaging nearly 11 targets per game since the Buccaneers bye five weeks ago. In that timeframe, he has turned in three games under 14.3 fantasy points in his last five games. Godwin needs to shake loose for a touchdown to hit his ceiling projection.

Brady has thrown the ball a ton since the Buccaneers' bye. He hasn't had less than 43 attempts and has multiple games in his last five of over 50 attempts. The Buccaneers are sixth in pass rate over expectation and last in rush rate and explosive rush rate. There are going to be a lot of game stacks that include Jared Goff, Mike White, Daniel Jones, and Brock Purdy in the super cheap range. There is also going to be a good amount of Mahomes, Herbert, and Fields lineups. Brady is in no man's land in the middle of those two quarterback tiers and makes for a nice leverage play that is due for good regression.

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