TL;DR Week 7

Oct 23, 2021
TL;DR Week 7

It's no secret we produce a ton of weekly data-driven, actionable fantasy football content designed to help you win your weekly matchup or cash your DFS lineups and bets. We also know not everybody has the time to read thousands upon thousands of words every week. With that in mind, this weekly TL;DR column is meant to highlight a few can't miss stats, facts, or analyses, broken down by category (season-long, DFS, betting), to aid in your weekly research prep.

TL;DR Season-Long Week 7

  • This matchup presents us with the best offensive adjusted line yards vs. defensive adjusted line yards on the week, pitting the 7th-best running team against the 25th-ranked defense in the metric. It would make sense a winless Lions team would allow a lot of rushing production considering the obvious negative game script that comes from losing 100% of your games, but Detroit looks poorly when we look at rate stats as well, namely their 12% broken/missed tackle rate (t-31st) and the 2.6 yards after contact per attempt (30th) that they allow to opposing RBs. Darrell Henderson would be a great play this week based solely on those rate stats, but he becomes a top-five option when we consider that he has handled 72% of the Rams backfield touches since returning from a Week 3 rib injury. (Full Article)
  • Mecole Hardman has posted 9-76 (12) and 4-62 (5) in the last two weeks. Just in the last three games, Tennessee has allowed Stefon Diggs (9-89-1), Cole Beasley (7-88-1), Emmanuel Sanders (5-91), Corey Davis (4-111-1) and Jamison Crowder (7-61-1) to have big fantasy days. (Full Article)
  • The Jets’ next two opponents are in the bottom half of the league in schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) to RBs so far in 2021, plus Michael Carter gets a super-soft schedule for the fantasy playoffs with games against the 31st- and 23rd-ranked defenses in RB aFPA in Weeks 15 and 16. (Full Article)
  • D.J. Moore faces a Giants secondary that has been torched by number-one wideouts, particularly those adept at gaining separation. For example, Cooper Kupp had nine catches on 12 targets for 130 yards and two scores, and Terry McLaurin had 11 receptions for 107 yards and a score against this same secondary. (Full Article)

All Week 7 Season-Long Content.

TL;DR DFS Week 7

  • Cordarrelle Patterson has emerged in an unexpected way for the Falcons and fantasy managers this season, averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game (RB3). He is averaging 14.4 opportunities/game, which includes a weekly average of 6.2 targets, five receptions and 59 receiving yards. (Full Article)
  • In four losses, Carson Wentz has averaged 273.5 passing yards. In two wins? 225.5 yards. The Colts will have to pass with their defense riddled with injuries and more than likely playing from behind. (Full Article)
  • Brandin Cooks is one of four players with a target share over 30% but he is priced as the WR15 in a game where Houston will be forced to throw as 17.5-point underdogs. (Full Article)
  • Darrell Henderson faces a Lions defense that has allowed three 100-yard rushers, six receiving and six rushing touchdowns to running backs, and four different players to go for over 20 points on DraftKings or FanDuel. (Full Article)

All Week 7 DFS Content.

TL;DR Betting Week 7

  • I still kind of like Miami to buck the negative schedule trends here, but rather than risk a pick on them to cover, I’m taking a different tack with an over on the game total of 47.5. Both these teams play at above-average situation neutral paces, and both have poor defenses. That’s a recipe for back-and-forth scoring, and the Falcons should be back to full strength in the passing game with Calvin Ridley. (Full Article)
  • Aaron Rodgers has 12 passing touchdowns to just one interception during the Packers’ current five-game winning streak and has multiple passing touchdowns in all five contests. He’ll face a Washington defense that has surrendered 186 points this season, which is the most through six games in franchise history since 1998. One of the most overrated defenses entering the season, the Football Team is allowing a league-worst 31.0 points per game and ranks 31st in total defense while surrendering 423.0 yards per contest. (Full Article)
  • Another instance in which the market has yet to adjust to this year's usage is with Henry Ruggs's receiving total. Over the past several weeks, his receiving yards total has hovered between 44.5-48.5 receiving yards, yet he has gone over that number in each of his last five games (and was at 46 yards in his first game). (Full Article)
  • At home as more than two-touchdown favorites against the Texans, who rank 31st in adjusted line yards defensively, James Conner is in line for 15+ carries here. In a similar spot last week against the Browns, Conner out-touched Edmonds 17 to 7, resulting in 71 yards on the ground against the Browns' top-three rushing defense. (Full Article)

All Week 7 Betting Content.

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