Breakout Receiver Model: Week 7

Oct 21, 2021
Breakout Receiver Model: Week 7

The Breakout Receiver Model returns for Week 7. With so many teams on bye, the model has fewer overall recommendations, but even so, this week's recommendations look incredibly exciting. Let's dig into the model's hits and misses from last week, and then check out the recommendations for the week ahead.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, have recalibrated and reconfigured the receiver "buy-low" model from years past in order to better identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends who might be on the verge of a breakout performance. For the uninitiated, the breakout receiver model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than their recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily-weights the last three weeks of data.

Last Week's Results

Hits

Week 6 Breakout Receiver Model, Hits
Player Team Position XFP - Last 3 Week 6 XFP-Diff.
Stefon Diggs BUF WR 13.2 19.4 6.2
Mike Gesicki MIA TE 12.2 15.5 3.3
Henry Ruggs LV WR 11.9 17.2 5.3
Adam Thielen MIN WR 10.6 24.3 13.7
Brandin Cooks HOU WR 10.6 13.4 2.8
Zach Ertz PHI TE 9.8 10.9 1.1
Marvin Jones JAX WR 8.6 19.5 10.9
T.J. Hockenson DET TE 7.8 11.4 3.6
Noah Fant DEN TE 7.4 20.2 12.8

Misses

Week 6 Breakout Receiver Model, Misses
Player Team Position XFP - Last 3 Week 6 XFP-Diff.
Terry McLaurin WAS WR 15.9 4.8 -11.1
Travis Kelce KC TE 14.9 13.9 -1
DeVonta Smith PHI WR 13.7 4.1 -9.6
Jakobi Meyers NE WR 13.1 8.9 -4.2
Darren Waller LV TE 12.5 8.4 -4.1
Odell Beckham CLE WR 11.9 10.4 -1.5
Nelson Agholor NE WR 11.7 3.3 -8.4
Robby Anderson CAR WR 11 8.6 -2.4
Chris Godwin TB WR 11 6.8 -4.2
Kalif Raymond DET WR 10.5 6.7 -3.8
James Washington PIT WR 10.1 1.4 -8.7
Bryan Edwards LV WR 9.7 7.7 -2
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TEN WR 9.7 4.2 -5.5
John Ross NYG WR 9.3 0 -9.3
Tyler Lockett SEA WR 9 4.5 -4.5
Cole Kmet CHI TE 8.2 6.9 -1.3
Robert Tonyan GB TE 7.8 2 -5.8
Cameron Brate TB TE 7.6 4.1 -3.5
Anthony Firkser TEN TE 7 1.6 -5.4
Dan Arnold JAX TE 6.3 3.7 -2.6

Breakout Receiver Model Recommendations

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