Breakout Receiver Model: Week 7
The Breakout Receiver Model returns for Week 7. With so many teams on bye, the model has fewer overall recommendations, but even so, this week's recommendations look incredibly exciting. Let's dig into the model's hits and misses from last week, and then check out the recommendations for the week ahead.
About the Breakout Receiver Model
The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, have recalibrated and reconfigured the receiver "buy-low" model from years past in order to better identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends who might be on the verge of a breakout performance. For the uninitiated, the breakout receiver model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than their recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily-weights the last three weeks of data.
Last Week's Results
Hits
| Player | Team | Position | XFP - Last 3 | Week 6 | XFP-Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | 13.2 | 19.4 | 6.2 |
| Mike Gesicki | MIA | TE | 12.2 | 15.5 | 3.3 |
| Henry Ruggs | LV | WR | 11.9 | 17.2 | 5.3 |
| Adam Thielen | MIN | WR | 10.6 | 24.3 | 13.7 |
| Brandin Cooks | HOU | WR | 10.6 | 13.4 | 2.8 |
| Zach Ertz | PHI | TE | 9.8 | 10.9 | 1.1 |
| Marvin Jones | JAX | WR | 8.6 | 19.5 | 10.9 |
| T.J. Hockenson | DET | TE | 7.8 | 11.4 | 3.6 |
| Noah Fant | DEN | TE | 7.4 | 20.2 | 12.8 |
Misses
| Player | Team | Position | XFP - Last 3 | Week 6 | XFP-Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | 15.9 | 4.8 | -11.1 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 14.9 | 13.9 | -1 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 13.7 | 4.1 | -9.6 |
| Jakobi Meyers | NE | WR | 13.1 | 8.9 | -4.2 |
| Darren Waller | LV | TE | 12.5 | 8.4 | -4.1 |
| Odell Beckham | CLE | WR | 11.9 | 10.4 | -1.5 |
| Nelson Agholor | NE | WR | 11.7 | 3.3 | -8.4 |
| Robby Anderson | CAR | WR | 11 | 8.6 | -2.4 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | WR | 11 | 6.8 | -4.2 |
| Kalif Raymond | DET | WR | 10.5 | 6.7 | -3.8 |
| James Washington | PIT | WR | 10.1 | 1.4 | -8.7 |
| Bryan Edwards | LV | WR | 9.7 | 7.7 | -2 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | TEN | WR | 9.7 | 4.2 | -5.5 |
| John Ross | NYG | WR | 9.3 | 0 | -9.3 |
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | WR | 9 | 4.5 | -4.5 |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | TE | 8.2 | 6.9 | -1.3 |
| Robert Tonyan | GB | TE | 7.8 | 2 | -5.8 |
| Cameron Brate | TB | TE | 7.6 | 4.1 | -3.5 |
| Anthony Firkser | TEN | TE | 7 | 1.6 | -5.4 |
| Dan Arnold | JAX | TE | 6.3 | 3.7 | -2.6 |
Breakout Receiver Model Recommendations
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