NFL Week 7: Spread Bets

Week 6 Recap: We were close to cashing our first 3-0 ATS week in the 2021 NFL season but the Cowboys produced a front-door cover against the Patriots in overtime to cash as a 3.5-point favorite. My other two selections both cashed easily, as the Raiders (+3.5) knocked off the Broncos outright and the Bengals (-3.5) never trailed in Detroit.

Following yet another 2-1 ATS week (my fourth in five weeks), my season record stands at 11-7 ATS (61.1%) for +3.30 units. Since we’re humming at a 60% clip, I’m going to bump up my plays to 2.0 units each. Let’s have another winning week!

Week 7 NFL Spread Bets

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Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers

Remember when the Packers dropped their season opener to the Saints and everyone questioned whether or not Aaron Rodgers’s tumultuous offseason would be too big of a distraction? Me, neither. According to ESPN Sports & Information Group, the Packers are the second team in NFL history to win five straight games immediately following a season-opening loss by 35 or more points and they’re going to roll on Sunday, too.

Rodgers has 12 passing touchdowns to just one interception during the Packers’ current five-game winning streak and has multiple passing touchdowns in all five contests. He’ll face a Washington defense that has surrendered 186 points this season, which is the most through six games in franchise history since 1998. One of the most overrated defenses entering the season, the Football Team is allowing a league-worst 31.0 points per game and ranks 31st in total defense while surrendering 423.0 yards per contest.

The biggest issue for Washington’s defense is that it has no pass rush, which is shocking considering Chase Young, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat comprise the front four. Nonetheless, that unit struggled last Sunday against a Kansas City offensive line that allows pressure as if that in fact was its job (it’s the opposite, actually).

Offensively, Taylor Heinicke threw for just 182 yards with a touchdown and a pick despite the fact he was facing a Chiefs defense that has been a sieve all season. Considering he underperformed in that game, it’s difficult to imagine Heinicke doing damage against a Green Bay defense that ranks fourth in the league in passing yards allowed this season (206.5 per game).

Pick: 2.20 units on Packers -7.5 at FanDuel to win 2 units.

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins

The Falcons have burned me too many times to count, but apparently I’m a glutton for punishment because I’ll be backing Atlanta again on Sunday.

First and foremost, Atlanta is also coming off a trip to London but 1) it was a happy flight home for the Falcons, unlike the Dolphins, who fell to a Jaguars team that had lost 20 straight before meeting last Sunday and 2) the Falcons had a bye last week, whereas the Dolphins will be just seven days removed from flying across the pond. Atlanta should also have receivers Calvin Ridley (personal) and Russell Gage (ankle) back after both missed the win over the Jets two weeks ago.

The Falcons should also be entering Week 7 on a three-game winning streak. Stop me if you’ve heard this before with Atlanta, but the Falcons blew a sizable fourth-quarter lead to Washington three weeks ago. Had they won that game, they’d be 3-2 coming off a bye and facing a 1-5 Miami team this weekend. If they were, would the line have opened at Dolphins -1? Doubtful.

Speaking of the Dolphins, there’s no excuse to lose to the Jaguars last week in London but it speaks to where Brian Flores’s team is at the moment. Tua Tagovailoa played well last week but Jacksonville also allowed him to do whatever he wanted in the middle of the field. Atlanta’s defense stinks, but the Falcons are well coached by DC Dean Pees, who undoubtedly will look to take the middle of the field away from Tagovailoa this weekend in South Beach. If that happens, turnovers could wind up being a huge part of this game.

Miami also ranks 30th in total defense (417.8), 29th in points allowed (29.5) and 29th in passing yards allowed (292.5). Matt Ryan looked washed up to start the season, but over the last three games he’s taken more deep shots and appears to be comfortable now in Arthur Smith’s offense. Kyle Pitts also had his breakout performance in London and now has 308 receiving yards on the season, which is the most by a rookie tight end and seventh-most by all tight ends this season.

Pick: 2.20 units on Falcons -2.5 at DraftKings to win 2 units.

Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders

Following a difficult two weeks that saw their three-game winning streak turn into back-to-back losses and their head coach resign, the Raiders circled the wagons last week in their upset win over the Broncos. I backed Las Vegas last Sunday and will do so again this weekend.

Lost in the Jon Gruden saga is the fact the Raiders are seeking their best seven-game start since 2016 when they started 5-2. Their formula is fairly simple, too: Protect Derek Carr, rush the passer and don’t turn the ball over. When the Raiders do those things, they’re tough to beat, as the Ravens, Steelers, Dolphins and Broncos can attest to. In fact, their four turnovers this season is the fewest through six games in franchise history and they’re looking to go consecutive games without a turnover for the first time since Weeks 15-16 in 2019.

Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts has proven to be an effective runner, but he hasn’t shown any consistency from a passing standpoint. The Eagles’ team philosophy is apparently to avoid running the ball at all costs, which is a shame considering they have a pretty good back in Miles Sanders. They surprised some last Thursday night by covering as a 7-point home dog against Tampa, but keep in mind the Bucs were deep in Philadelphia territory in the final minutes before running the rest of the clock to ensure victory. Otherwise, the Bucs completely dominated that game.

Assuming they can keep Fletcher Cox from running Carr’s day, the Raiders should earn their fifth victory of the season. I’ll gladly lay the field goal with the better team at home.

Pick: 2.20 units on Raiders -3 at FanDuel to win 2.0 units.

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