2026 NFL Futures Bets: Best Bets from Connor Allen

Football is almost back, and there's no better time to attack the market than right now. We have been profitable in NFL Futures for five consecutive seasons, alongside our props, which have also been profitable every year in that time frame. I'll be releasing a mix of win totals, player props, and longshots.

2026 NFL Futures Best Bets

All plays below are sized to win 1 unit, and I'll note the number I'm willing to play each bet down to. Let's get into it.

Miami Dolphins Under 4.5 Wins (-130 DK, MGM, Rebet; -150 CZRS)

No better way to kick off the season than betting an under on one of the lowest totals on the board. The Dolphins are not only bad, but they may have one of the worst rosters in recent memory, and they project to play against one of the toughest schedules in the league.

Let's start with Malik Willis. He looked pretty good during his time in Green Bay, but that was with multiple above-average options in the receiving game, a strong running game, a good offensive line, and a creative play-caller in Matt LaFleur. There was a lot of hand-holding going on in the three games Willis did start, with just 21, 19, and 14 pass attempts. That includes a losing effort against Baltimore where they lost 41-24.

He now enters a situation diametrically opposite to what he had in Green Bay. The Dolphins are projected to have a bottom-five offensive line. Their starting wideouts are a traveling circus comprised of Tutu Atwell, Jalen Tolbert, and Malik Washington, with Greg Dulcich at tight end. Their coaching staff consists of first-year head coach Jeff Hafley, who was a defensive coordinator in Green Bay, and OC Bobby Slowik, who will call the plays and really struggled the last time around in his first OC stint in Houston. This offense is considerably worse than what he had there as well.

The lone bright spot is RB De'Von Achane, but can he really carry the offense? If they had a good offensive line and a solid defense, maybe. But neither is the case.

I created a player-based model that leverages advanced metrics to understand how good players, units, and teams are. Miami's defense graded out as the second-worst unit in the league. They have no star power and a lot of question marks. I think Hafley is probably fine as a defensive coach, but I don't think he is a talent-maximizer by any means.

To make all of this worse, the Dolphins have the second-toughest schedule in the league. Eleven of their games come against expected playoff teams with a win total of 9 or more. Using lookahead lines, they are favored in just one game this season, at home against the Jets, and they are just 1.5-point favorites there.

I'd play this down to -160, which is where FanDuel currently sits.

Risk: 1.3 units to win 1 unit

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