NFL Spread and O/U Picks: Hunter's Week 3 Best Bets

We hit the ‘Protect your QBs’ portion of the season incredibly early in 2026. Jaxson Dart only made it a few plays before his knee got sent through a shredder. Jayden Daniels dislocated his elbow yet again. Lastly, the Bears managed to not only have Caleb Williams get carted off for a bum hammy, but they quietly made it to the end of the game with a concussed Tyler Bagent. Kudos to you if you thought Case Keenum would still be starting NFL games in 2026.

We move on to week 3, which is when I begin the shift from pure player grading based off 2025 metrics and begin to slowly incorporate stats from the 2026 season. This week will be roughly 30% 2026 data, with some teams shifting more based on how big of an offseason reshuffle each team had in coaching/player personnel. The body of pick explanations will start to see a little less talk about the positional groups on the field, and will be shifted towards pure data-driven decisions. Hopefully this also explains the slow start to bets in Week 3.

Week 2 recap: We unfortunately appear to be off to a slow start to the 2026 season. Week 2 had 3 losses that hinged on the last drive of the game that ultimately came up just short, leading to a disappointing 3-5 record for -6.85 units.

2026 Year to Date:

Sides: 3-5 -5.71 Units
Totals: 3-5-1 -5.8 Units
Overall: 6-10-1 -11.51 Units

2026 NFL Week 3 Sides and Totals

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