Breakout Receiver Model: Week 15

Dec 15, 2021
Breakout Receiver Model: Week 15

The Breakout Receiver Model returns for Week 15. We had another 30%-plus hit rate week in Week 14, and with the bye weeks behind us, this week's model has a ton of great breakout recommendations to dig into this week.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, have recalibrated and reconfigured the receiver "buy-low" model from years past in order to better identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends who might be on the verge of a breakout performance. For the uninitiated, the breakout receiver model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than their recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily-weights the last three weeks of data.

Last Week's Results

Hits

Breakout Receiver Model: Week 14, Hits
Player Team Position XFP - Last 3 Week 14 XFP-Diff.
Mark Andrews BAL TE 16.6 23 6.4
Chase Claypool PIT WR 12.7 13.5 0.8
Jarvis Landry CLE WR 11.5 12.6 1.1
Ja'Marr Chase CIN WR 9.8 22.8 13
Marvin Jones JAX WR 9.1 10 0.9
Jared Cook LAC TE 8.5 7.8 -0.7
Damiere Byrd CHI WR 8.1 14.6 6.5
Tyreek Hill KC WR 8 9.6 1.6
Austin Hooper CLE TE 7.6 11.5 3.9

With multiple injuries in the San Francisco secondary, the BengalsJa'Marr Chase feasted on backups, scoring the seventh-most fantasy points of any receiver in Week 14. Despite Lamar Jackson going down, Mark Andrews still managed to catch all 11 targets, en route to a TE2 overall performance. While the Browns’ Week 15 looks like it could be a mess to project, last week was quite a success for the Cleveland passing game, as Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper combined for over 24 fantasy points, and scored a combined 5.0 over expectations last weekend.

Misses

Breakout Receiver Model: Week 14, Misses
Player Team Position XFP - Last 3 Week 14 XFP-Diff.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB WR 16.7 3.5 -13.2
Michael Gallup DAL WR 14.5 8.5 -6
Darnell Mooney CHI WR 14.4 2.4 -12
DK Metcalf SEA WR 12.7 6.3 -6.4
Dalton Schultz DAL TE 11.4 0.9 -10.5
Terry McLaurin WAS WR 11.2 0 -11.2
Cedrick Wilson DAL WR 11 2.8 -8.2
Zay Jones LV WR 10.5 3 -7.5
Travis Kelce KC TE 10 4.2 -5.8
Kyle Pitts ATL TE 9.9 8.6 -1.3
Tre'Quan Smith NO WR 9.8 4.8 -5
Darius Slayton NYG WR 9.7 0 -9.7
Marquise Brown BAL WR 9.6 6.6 -3
Courtland Sutton DEN WR 8.9 1.4 -7.5
Cole Kmet CHI TE 8.9 3.2 -5.7
James O'Shaughnessy JAX TE 7.9 4.1 -3.8
Foster Moreau LV TE 7.2 2.8 -4.4

Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Darnell Mooney drastically disappointed while facing each other on Sunday night football, despite that game smashing its middling Vegas total, with 75 total points scored. Dalton Schultz saw just three looks despite the Cowboys passing 39 times against one of the worst defenses in the league (via aFPA), leading to just 0.9 fantasy points, his lowest total of the 2021 season.

Breakout Receiver Model Recommendations

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