TL;DR Week 10

Nov 12, 2021
TL;DR Week 10

It's no secret we produce a ton of weekly data-driven, actionable fantasy football content designed to help you win your weekly matchup or cash your DFS lineups and bets. We also know not everybody has the time to read thousands upon thousands of words every week. With that in mind, this weekly TL;DR column is meant to highlight a few can't miss stats, facts, or analyses, broken down by category (season-long, DFS, betting), to aid in your weekly research prep.

TL;DR Season-Long Week 10

  • Dan Arnold has 30 targets in his last four games, including 8-68 (10) in Week 8 and 4-60 (7) last week. His schedule is pretty favorable the rest of the way and this week’s matchup against the Colts is especially juicy. Indy has yielded an average of 6.1-60-0.67 to the position this season. (Full Article)
  • Davante Adams ranks number one in the NFL in targets share and air yards share and ranks fourth in fantasy points per game despite ranking outside the top 25 receivers in total touchdowns. (Full Article)
  • Detroit ranks 31st in aFPA to the RB position and at least part of that could be due to poor tackling; the team is 30th in Sports Info Solutions’ BT+MT% (15.8%), which measures how often opposing ballcarriers can evade potential tackle attempts. (Full Article)
  • A trip to Indianapolis could help Trevor Lawrence feel better. The Colts (21.5 aFPA) are 21st in EPA per dropback over the last three weeks. In that span, they allowed 412 yards and 4 touchdowns to the two Jets’ backups and 21.2 points to Ryan Tannehill. (Full Article)

All Week 10 Season-Long Content.

TL;DR DFS Week 10

  • The Cardinals currently rank fifth in the league with an overall rush rate of 46% and are ninth in the league with a 45% rush rate in neutral game scripts. (Full Article)
  • Elijah Molden is yielding 11.6 yards per target and has given up 150 yards after the catch. He's been responsible for three TDs, resulting in 2.8 fantasy points per target. He should line up against Tre'Quan Smith this week. (Full Article)
  • If you go cheap at QB, Teddy Bridgewater is the preferred choice for how cheap his pass-catchers are. The Eagles continue to play Quarters or a Cover 2, which leads the underneath routes wide open. Jerry Jeudy has had a low average target depth in the games with Bridgewater and could see upwards of 10 targets in this game. (Full Article)
  • With Chris Godwin missing practice this week, Mike Evans ($6,900) could leap Davante Adams as the top value if Godwin sits. Washington ranks last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and Tampa Bay is one of two teams throwing at least two-thirds of the time in neutral game script. (Full Article)

All Week 10 DFS Content.

TL;DR Betting Week 10

  • The Rams play at the league’s fastest situation-neutral clip and should come out throwing on San Francisco’s 25th-ranked pass defense. The Niners have struggled to score points at times this season, and L.A.'s defense is a tough test, but George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk haven’t been at full strength together until now, so I expect San Francisco's offense to keep pace with the Rams just enough to push this game over. (Full Article)
  • Fading the Steelers when they have been a sizable home favorite under Mike Tomlin has been profitable. Since 2012, the Steelers are 10-19 ATS when they’re favored by seven or more points, which includes Monday night’s narrow 29-27 win over the Bears as 7-point home chalk. (Full Article)
  • Since Week 4, Aaron Jones has no more than 15 carries in a single game and has been below the 14.5-carry line in four of six games. Additionally, in that same span, Jones has only commanded 54% of the backfield carries. (Full Article)
  • What’s been interesting is to see the small sample trend of how the Eagles have approached their offense over the past two weeks. The Eagles have 66 RB rush attempts compared to only 31 pass attempts during this span. While we obviously can’t expect this to continue to this extreme, it seems the Eagles are focused on running the ball more. (Full Article)

All Week 10 Betting Content.

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