Game Flowbotics: Week 10 Picks Against the Spread

It’s Week 10. You know the drill by now. The Game Flowbotics page linked below compiles and organizes pace and efficiency data from Football Outsiders so we can review NFL matchups holistically and try to find inefficiencies in the betting totals and against the spread. Easier said than done, of course, but I’m having a solid season.

In my last article, I noted my recent predisposition toward picking favorites and expressed concern that I was overweight on favorites across the entire slate. That instinct bore out, as underdogs ruled Week 9. Despite including four favorites among my seven picks, I managed to escape with a winning week. Let’s get into what went wrong.

Accountability

Last week, I went 4-3 with my picks for a modest gain of 0.77 units. Year to date, my record is 42-34-1 and I’m up 5.12 units overall. Honestly, it felt more like a 4-2 week, considering how I backed off my over bet in the Houston-Miami game once Tua Tagovailoa’s risk of not playing became legitimized. Still, I made the bet and posted it in our Discord, so I’ll own up to it here.

My other misses were Buffalo (-14) and the Rams (-7.5). I won’t dwell on the Bills pick. The result of that game blindsided pretty much everyone, including me. Tennessee upsetting Los Angeles was also pretty surprising, but my analysis in making the pick does deserve some criticism. I leaned too heavily on the absence of Derrick Henry as a key factor without considering other angles. Specifically, I wasn’t really paying attention to how the Titans' defense had been improving steadily since Week 5.

*Note: Higher positive DVOA values are bad for defense. Better defenses have low or negative DVOA values.

After beating the Rams last week, the Titans' defense now holds a DVOA value of -4.0% as we enter Week 10, which ranks 10th-best in the NFL.

It's clear now with hindsight that my impression of Tennessee as a bottom-10 defense was outdated, and I could have been more open to the possibility that they’d continue showing improvement against the Rams. In the first half of their Sunday night game, the Titans’ defense showed us exactly that, so much so that I went to check the line on Mike Vrabel to win Coach of the Year. As a former defensive player who famously played under Bill Belichick, if Vrabel continues to ride strong defensive play and cruises to a division title without Derrick Henry, he’ll have a strong narrative case for the award. But this isn’t a futures article, so let’s get into the Week 10 stats and betting lines.

Week 10 Game Flowbotics

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Here’s this week’s worksheet:

Week 10 Game Flowbotics

For background on Game Flowbotics and information on how to use the spreadsheet, check out my first article in this series and the Game Flowbotics primer.

As always, this tool is not a model. It isn’t going to tell us who to pick. Instead, it’s a visualization resource to help us gather information and compare opposing forces in NFL matchups. It’s up to us to translate those considerations into picks on our own. With that in mind, let’s get to my favorite angles this week.

Week 10 Best Bets

New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans

I talked about the Titans’ improving defense in the intro above, now ranked 10th in DVOA and eighth in Weighted DVOA (which puts more weight on recent performance). After holding the Chiefs to three points and the Rams to 16 points within the past three weeks, I’d say they’ve earned those rankings. Digging deeper, Tennessee ranks eighth on defense against the pass but only 24th against the run, so I expect the opposing New Orleans offense to administer a steady dose of ground-and-pound with Alvin Kamara (if active), Mark Ingram and Taysom Hill.

If the Saints establish the run successfully, their third-ranked defense should be able to key in on Ryan Tannehill and his passing targets while trusting their top-ranked run defense to contain the rushers filling in for Derrick Henry. Maybe Tennessee will lean away from their running game and push more passing based on the matchup, but I’m not sure it matters. This smells like a slow and defensive slugfest regardless of the Titans’ run/pass splits, especially considering how both teams play at below-average situation neutral paces.

Pick: Under (44.5) -108 at SugarHouse/Unibet, risk 1.08 units to win 1 unit.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Buffalo’s offense has backslid in the DVOA rankings, but they should still perform well against this New York defense which ranks worst in the NFL (30th against the pass, 31st against the run). Meanwhile, the Bills’ defense still rates best in the league and should have little trouble locking down whichever quarterback the Jets put under center, whether it’s Zach Wilson, Mike White, Josh Johnson or Joe Flacco.

Despite Buffalo’s struggles last week against Jacksonville, I expected a spread against the Jets closer to 13 or 14 points. It’s 12.5 or 13 at most books, but only 11.5 on DraftKings. This quirk in the market coupled with the matchup stats screaming, “The Bills are clearly the much better team!” has me going back to the well with Josh Allen and company, even though they threw me down the well last week when I picked them under similar circumstances.

Pick: BUF (-11.5) -110 at DraftKings, risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

Look at the points per game for and against for these two teams on the Game Flowbotics spreadsheet and explain to me why the over/under is so high in this matchup. The Packers have only combined for 50 or more points in a game twice this season, and not since Week 3. The Seahawks have only done it once, back in Week 2 against Tennessee in a game that went to overtime.

Yes, we’re anticipating a potential showdown between Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, two of the best quarterbacks in the league. It’s a nice headline for the matchup, but just because they’re great passers doesn’t mean they’re set up to push this game over 49.5 total points. Both passers could be rusty, with Rodgers on limited practice due to COVID-19 protocols and Wilson relearning how to grip and throw following his hand injury. Plus, these teams like to play slow (the Packers rank 28th in situation neutral pace) and/or conservative (the Seahawks are still coached by Pete Carroll). The fact that the under seems so obvious to me makes me nervous, but not enough to stay away.

Pick: Under (49.5) -110 at FanDuel/Caesars/SugarHouse/Unibet, risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

Week 10 Rapid-Fire Picks

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys

Get-right spot for the Cowboys against the Falcons’ 31st-ranked defense. Matt Ryan should be in catch-up mode as this game plays out, and both teams rank top-10 in situation neutral pace, so we should expect a lot of points.

Pick: Over (54.5) -115 at DraftKings, risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

The Rams play at the league’s fastest situation-neutral clip and should come out throwing on San Francisco’s 25th-ranked pass defense. The Niners have struggled to score points at times this season, and L.A.'s defense is a tough test, but George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk haven’t been at full strength together until now, so I expect San Francisco's offense to keep pace with the Rams just enough to push this game over. With all that said, I am worried about San Francisco’s loss of tackle Mike McGlinchey, so if the game total moves past 50, flipping to the under might make sense.

Pick: Over (48.5) -110 on DraftKings, risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

Good luck, everyone!

Please follow @GameFlowbotics on Twitter to get each week’s Game Flowbotics spreadsheet as soon as it’s available, and feel free to contact me there or @gregsauce to discuss the spreadsheet or my picks. For the most up-to-date picks subscribe to 4for4’s Discord. This sheet, from Dan Rivera, tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff). Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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