2021 NFL Draft Prop Bet: Jaylen Waddle

After a successful bout of March Madness bets, and NBA bets in full swing, it’s time to get cracking on the NFL Draft. Understanding who to trust and when to act on information is crucial. The NFL Draft is largely an information market and, therefore, acting quickly on solid info is vital. I’ll be posting all my bets in our subscriber-only Discord with optional push notifications prior to writing them up in an article to make sure everyone gets the same number I do.

2021 NFL Draft Resources: NFL Mock Draft | Top 150 Big Board | Team Needs & Draft Capital

More NFL Draft Prop Bets: First-Round RBs | Rashawn Slater Top 10 Pick | First-Round LBs

2021 NFL Draft Bet

Jaylen Waddle Over Pick No. 11.5 (+100 on FanDuel)

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This line is at least one slot off—it should be at 12.5. That might not sound like much, but every draft slot makes a big difference. According to Grinding the Mocks' aggregate mock draft data, Jaylen Waddle has been going 13th on average. Going through the draft board and each team’s projected selection or biggest needs, there’s only a couple of places he could be drafted in the top-11.

The top three picks are seemingly locked in at this point. Even if picks two and three are switched up a bit in terms of the name, they will still be quarterbacks.

When we look at the top 11 picks, there are only three teams who will seriously consider drafting a wide receiver: Cincinnati, Miami and Detroit. That might seem like a lot, but Waddle is very unlikely to be the first wideout off the board. The betting markets have Ja'Marr Chase as the -400 favorite, with Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle tied as options two and three.

For Waddle to be a top-11 draft pick, at least two of those teams would need to select a wide receiver—potentially all three, as Smith is 50/50 to go ahead of Waddle. Let's dive into the three teams most likely to select a wideout.

Top Waddle Landing Spots

Pick No. 5: Cincinnati

Rather than adding more weapons to Joe Burrow’s arsenal, Cincinnati could opt to bolster their offensive line with offensive tackles Penei Sewell or Rashawn Slater. This has been a hotly debated topic on Twitter as fantasy analysts have been salivating at the prospects of Joe Burrow reuniting with his former LSU teammate, Ja'Marr Chase. The reality is Joe Burrow finished the season with 32 sacks, the 10th-most among all quarterbacks, despite only playing 10 games. He is getting hit way too much and suffered a season-ending injury because of it. Burrow will surely make a case to his coaches of why they should grab Chase and snag OL talent in the later rounds. Right now it seems like a 50/50 shot Chase is picked by the Bengals with the other choice being either Slater or Sewell.

Pick No. 6: Miami Dolphins

Despite uneven play as a rookie, the Dolphins are reportedly committed to their 2020 first-round pick, Tua Tagovailoa. If that’s true, he will need better pass-catchers and help along the offensive line. The Dolphins also have the 18th pick in the first round and signed WR Will Fuller in the offseason. I expect them to use both of their first-round picks to address the offensive line or pass-catchers. But which comes first? If the Bengals select Penei Sewell, the Dolphins could still opt to pick Rashawn Slater if they view that as a bigger need, or they don’t have a high grade on Chase.

Pick No. 7: Detroit Lions

Under new GM Brad Holmes, who is analytically oriented, the Lions have a bunch of options including a trade down. They have holes all over their roster—including quarterback—but selecting their signal-caller of the future might not be their best decision at this point in time with not much talent surrounding him. They also look ready to give Jared Goff a stab at the starting job for at least this season. As I outlined in my Lions win totals piece, they are in a great position to hold the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Beyond the logic of trading down for a talent-needy roster, the seventh pick is a prime target area for a team (Chicago, Washington, New England) to trade up and grab a quarterback—most likely Ohio State’s Justin Fields or North Dakota State’s Trey Lance. That team would also be leap-frogging the Carolina Panthers, a team that has made it known publicly they are looking to upgrade at quarterback. Trading down, acquiring draft capital and adding more pieces should make a lot of sense for an analytical general manager like Brad Holmes.

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Outlook

In my mind, the most likely scenario is that Ja'Marr Chase goes to either the Bengals or Dolphins at picks 5-6, while Sewell or Slater is the other selection. It’s unclear what the Lions will do but It makes a lot of sense for them to trade down. Even if they don’t, they could opt to address any of their other needs prior to choosing a wideout. After that, it would be shocking if one of Carolina, Denver or Dallas selected a wideout given their receiver room. The only worry left is the New York Giants at pick No 11. As I mentioned earlier, they already made a splash at the position in free agency by signing former Lions receiver Kenny Golladay (read TJ Hernandez's fantasy impact breakdown article of the Golladay signing). Their receiving corps is now formidable with Sterling Shepherd in the slot, Darius Slayton as the field-stretcher and Kenny Golladay as the alpha No. 1 WR. Could they still take a wide receiver? Sure. But after signing Golladay, they have much more pressing needs in order to become competitive again.

All the previous analysis doesn’t even consider a few other scenarios that would make Waddle’s top-11 outlook even worse. There’s a very good chance two more teams either select a quarterback or trade up into the top seven to take one. If that happens, Waddle is certainly on the outside looking in.

Another wildcard revolves around Atlanta, who is reportedly “split” on whether to take a quarterback of the future or go in other directions. If they take a quarterback or trade down instead of snagging tight end Kyle Pitts, this pushes stud skill players like Chase and Pitts outside of the top five picks, which as a result, would bump Waddle down as well.

Editor's Note: Read Matt Gajewski's Kyle Pitts rookie profile to see why he's viewed as one of the draft's top prospects.

Bottom Line

• There are a lot of ways Waddle doesn’t wind up being a top-11 pick and barring an early run on skill players starting with Atlanta, he’s unlikely to be drafted in the range.
• FanDuel is offering this at even money, which will surely be short-lived as DraftKings and has bumped it up to -121. I like this up until that point.

Risk: 1 unit to win 1 unit.

Note: All advice in this article is based on odds available on the date of publishing.

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