Super Bowl NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

The Super Bowl is one of my favorite betting events of the year because sportsbooks offer so many different markets. After playing a few of my favorite offensive props I usually like to dig into special teams props more. Last year, we played Ray-Ray McCloud under punt return yards and Chiefs longest FG, among many other props. The Super Bowl has also been a solid money-maker for us.

My Super Bowl betting record the last few years:

• 2023: 7-2 (straights) for +2.67 units
• 2022: 5-2, +1.2 units
• 2021: 7-2, +1.81 units
• 2020: 3-2, +0.75 units

You can find all of my thoughts on Super Bowl 59 in my FREE breakdown here.

Get all of the best below for 50% ($8.49) off with code: WINNER. I'll continue to add to this article as I release more bets. If you want the best number, make sure to join the discord.

Let’s dive in.

Super Bowl 59 Player Prop Bets

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Isiah Pacheco under 30.5 rushing & receiving yards (-115 DK)

Still available and playable at 29.5 at DK and 28.5 FD.

Pacheco has seen his role decrease in 5 consecutive weeks with carry shares of 58% > 38% > 33% > 30% > 24% > 15%. Last week, this resulted in just 4 carries to Hunt's 17. The Eagles' run defense has also played well this season, keeping running backs to just 3.68 yards per carry. This is bad news for a Chiefs running game that has already been specializing in 3 yards, and a cloud of dust runs for a while now. There was also a report pre-game last week from James Palmer saying that the Chiefs really like where Kareem Hunt is a,t and they will continue to roll with him as the hot hand.

Pacheco has 24, 18, 18, and 25 combined rushing and rec yards the last 4 weeks, with -1 receiving yards in the 3 games prior to last week. Last week, he finished with 12 yards on 2 targets, but 10 of those yards came on a late play where the Bills were selling out to stop the run, and Mahomes did a boot leg, flipping it out to Pacheco in space. He is still only running a route on around 25-30% of plays and gets none of the long down and distance or 2-minute drill snaps (Perine does). The Eagles haven't been a team to allow a ton of rec yards to running backs either with the 7th-fewest overall.

With volume, matchup, and usage concerns here I love getting this at 30.

Risk to win 1 unit

Dallas Goedert over 46.5 receiving yards (-115 at DK)

Still available and playable 49.5 at MGM, and 50.5 Bet365, would play 51.5.

Joint play with Noonan & Monotone, released on 1/27.

The Chiefs have allowed the most yards to tight ends this season at 1,191 (66 yards per game), allowing 10 games with a TE clearing 46.5 yards. This includes:

• Brock Bowers: 140 and 58 yards
• Isaiah Likely: 111 yards
• George Kittle: 92 yards
• Mike Gesicki: 91 yards
• Cade Otton: 77 yards
• Pat Freiermuth: 60 yards
• Kyle Pitts: 59 yards
• Stone Smartt: 54 yards
• Ja'Tavion Sanders: 49 yards

Since Goedert returned from injury, he has been on an absolute tear with games of 7/85, 4/56, 4/47, 4/55 (no Hurts). The other games all came with Jalen Hurts throwing the ball only 28, 20, and 21 times. There are plenty of scenarios where the Eagles have to throw the ball a bit more here so volume could also be a boost to Goedert. With a good matchup and potentially more volume, we wanted to get ahead of this one and think it could close in the low 50's.

Risk to win 1 unit

DeAndre Hopkins under 16.5 receiving yards (DK)

Still available and playable at 14.5 at Builder, Caesars, and some pick’em spots. Hopkins has run just 13 and 11 routes in two playoff games so far. He has caught a total of 1-of-3 targets for 11 yards in the playoffs, and that one catch came against backup CB Kaiir Elam, who was only playing because Christian Benford was ruled out. Mahomes and the team made it a point to attack Elam (rightfully so) as soon as he was in the game, which is how Hopkins got his borderline free 11 yards.

We played U2.5 receptions last week, but I think at 16.5 yard,s he needs at least two catches to go over this, and again, I'm not even sure he sees 2-3 targets here, let alone 2-3 catches against a tough Eagles secondary that has largely done a fantastic job against outside wideouts since the bye. He has run well behind JuJu Smith-Schuster, and there is potential for Noah Gray to be even more involved here as well, with the Eagles struggling to defend tight ends post-Nakobe Dean.

Risk to win 1 unit

Eagles to have more time of possession than Chiefs (-120 DK, -128 FD, -130 CZRS)

Another half-unit play from Noonan and I. The Eagles have dominated time of possession this season ranking 1st at a touch over 32 minutes. The Chiefs are 13th but excluding the disastrous Week 18 loss to Denver with Wentz they rank 7th. Since their bye the only games the Eagles have lost the TOP battle was against:

• NY (Tanner Mckee game)
• CAR (ran the ball well)
• BAL (also ran the ball well and a lot)

Beyond the surface-level stats, when analyzing this game we expect the Eagles to try and run with Saquon and Hurts or try and get the ball out quick for Hurts early on. Spags and the Chiefs will likely have some answers for the running game but that likely won't stop the Eagles from running anyway and it's hard to see them fully slowing down the running game. Meanwhile, the Chiefs may have little to no success running the ball with their inefficient backfield duo (3.68 ypc for Hunt, 3.49 for Pacheco post-injury) against one of the best run defenses in the league (#1 in EPA and 7th in rushing SR allowed since the bye) and could implement a pass-heavy gameplan. This is good for our time of possession look as the clock stops on incompletions. Even with a lean on the Chiefs in the game, I think this is a good look. Risk to win half a unit

HOW TO FIND IT

DK: SBLIX specials -> Team Specials - Most time of possession

FD: From home screen - > Super Bowl (DO NOT CLICK ON THE GAME) -> Game Props -> Team with more time of possesion in game

CZRS: Game -> Time - Team with more time of possession

Longest FG U47.5 (-114 FD, -115 DK, -105 MGM)

I will be releasing a bunch of unique props for a half unit like I did last year, this one included. Chiefs K Harrison Butker had a knee injury mid-season, forcing him on IR. In the six games since he returned, Butker has just one attempt of 50+ which he missed, and hasn't made a FG longer than 44 yards in that span. Eagles K Jake Elliott has been one of the worst kickers from distance this season. He has made just 3-of-9 attempts from 48+ yards.

Elliott has made just 77.8% of his kicks on the season overall, good for 19th among other kickers. I expect both teams to be uber-aggressive in 4th and short situations as well. The opportunity for them to even attempt a 48+ yarder has to be a 4th and long from the 31-to ~35 yard line and even if they do attempt it, Elliott has straight up been bad and Butker is likely not 100%. Some pick'em spots have this at 48.5. as well.

Risk to win 0.5 a unit

JuJu Smith-Schuster over 14.5 receiving yards (-110 FD, 15.5 -109 at DK, -120 CZRS all fine)

Also playing 40+ alt at FD at +490.

Juju has seen his role grow substantially in the playoffs with a 41% and 63% routes run rate the last two games. He has surpassed DeAndre Hopkins in the pecking order and only ran 4 fewer routes than Hollywood Brown last week. He went 2-60 last week against the Bills on 3 targets despite fairly limited passing volume from Mahomes. It's also easy to forget that right after Rashee Rice's injury, Juju was his "replacement" and had a game with 130 yards and 7 catches. This is not comparable given Worthy's ascension and Hollywood Brown's return but I wouldn't be surprised to see Juju as an important part of this gameplan in the slot.

Without Nakobe Dean, LB Oren Burks has allowed 21-of-23 targets to be caught this season and Juju runs a ton of his routes over the middle and predominantly lined up in the interior last week. I fully expect Vic Fangio to have a plan for Kelce and maybe even stick Cooper DeJean on him a fair amount. With that happening and both outside corners likely holding their own, that leaves Juju and Xavier Worthy against linebackers over the middle.

That's how he got a 30 yard catch last week, finding a pocket in the zone in between the linebackers on a slant. This will likely be one of the Chiefs biggest matchup advantages on offense in the Super Bowl as well. Even if the entire handicap doesn't pan out, this number is so low he could get this in one play like he did last week. If the handicap is right and the Chiefs have to throw to move the ball (I expect this to be the case) Juju could have a surprisingly big game and easily clear his alts.

Risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit on o15.5

Risk 0.21 units on 40+ yards at +490 to win 1.02 units

I'll continue to add to this article as I release more bets. If you want the best number make sure to join the discord.

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This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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