The Rundown: Week 3 Stats to Know & Titans vs Jaguars
It is only Week 3 and already we are seeing fantasy teams getting ravaged by injuries and general upheaval of the known. Running back committees are unexpectedly getting formed and quarterbacks who have been long-standing centerpieces of the late-round community are leaving their fantasy owners crippled. The waiver wire is going to be extremely active this week with free-agent dollars getting depleted, especially in superflex and two-quarterback leagues. A battle of top fantasy quarterbacks, a pair of 20-plus point spread blowouts, and a Sunday primetime matchup of fantasy rich options dot the Week 3 landscape.
Each week, I will provide a preview article with some key overall stats to watch for along with the Thursday game preview that includes start/sit ratings. Then, there will be subsequent previews later in the week with all the other games in time for the remaining fantasy decisions before kickoff. For much of this data, I will be using 4for4's Snaps, Touches, and Targets Apps as well as analyzing each team's pace and play-calling tendencies.
Ten Stats to Know for Week 3
- Seconded: Kyler Murray became the second quarterback to start his career with back-to-back 300-yard passing games.
- Flying solo: Only one wide receiver has recorded 20 or more PPR fantasy points in both their games. It’s John Ross.
- Working hard: Four running backs have 20 or more touches in both games this season. LeVeon Bell, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, and Marlon Mack. Cook and Mack are the only two with 20 or more rushes in each contest.
- Security blanket: Michael Thomas is the only receiver with double-digit receptions in both games this year.
- Signal staller: The Packers and the Rams are the only two teams to not allow a quarterback to exceed 10 fantasy points in a 2019 game.
- Not bad for a running back: Lamar Jackson became the first quarterback since the merger to score 30 or more fantasy points in the first two games of a season.
- Free pass: The Eagles are the only team to allow 20 or more PPR fantasy points to three different wide receivers this season.
- Lean on me: Keenan Allen leads the league with a 35.7% target share. His 64.0% catch rate would be the lowest since 2014.
- I’m all alone: Seven non-quarterbacks exceeded 30 PPR points in week 1. Only Demarcus Robinson did it in Week 2.
- Run for it: Lamar Jackson, Gardner Minshew, and Dak Prescott are the only quarterbacks to run for over 50 yards in a game. Only Jackson and Josh Allen have attempted 10 or more runs in a single contest.
Spread: Jaguars +1.5 | Total: 40
One team held the Browns to 13 points in Week 1, the other held the Texans to the same on Sunday. Those are a strong pair of offenses to keep tamped down, even if the Jaguars allowed 40 points to the Chiefs in Week 1. The betting line suggests a slogging slugfest of a game and with both teams strategically playing for starting field position, both rank in the top eight, expect a conservative approach that yields middling fantasy results.
Unsurprisingly, the Titans will look to remain a run-first team this week and let the defense try to force turnovers, as they have five in two games so far against the Jaguars. It has worked so far as the team is eighth in average starting field position and has protected the ball with no turnovers this season. Outside of Delanie Walker and Derrick Henry, there are few redeeming fantasy options for this week.
Team Trends That Matter
- No turnovers committed in four of the last five games.
- The Titans haven’t allowed a running back or receiver to reach 15 PPR points this year.
- Have only had one game with over 30 pass attempts in the last 10 contests.
Fantasy Rating and a Stat to Know
- QB Marcus Mariota (1) - Four straight games without an interception, tied for the longest streak of his career
- RB Derrick Henry (3) - 22% fewer PPR points in career road games
- RB Dion Lewis (0) - Has not received a second-half rush attempt in 2019
- WR Corey Davis (0) - Only Titans receiver who has played over 50% of the snaps in each week
- WR AJ Brown (0) - The only Titans wide receiver with a double-digit PPR game
- TE Delanie Walker (4) - One of seven players with a streak of 20-plus games of three or more receptions. The only tight end on the list.
So far, the Jaguars offense has been effective as they rank top ten in both net yards per pass attempt and yards per carry. The Titans have been one of the best pass defenses through the first two weeks, ranking top three in most categories, but are below-average as a run defense so far. Leonard Fournette should get another solid workload while Minshew plays the role of game manager unless the Jaguars defense struggles.
Team Trends That Matter
- Opponents have scored on over 60% of their drives (61.1%), tops in the league.
- Six different receivers have eight targets in the first two weeks.
- Offenses are averaging 6.6 plays per drive, third highest in 2019.
Fantasy Rating and a Stat to Know
- QB Gardner Minshew (1) - One of 22 quarterbacks since the merger to start his career with back-to-back 200-plus yard passing games
- RB Leonard Fournette (3) - 16 or more touches in his last three games against the Titans
- WR Dede Westbrook (1) - Has led the wide receivers in snap share both weeks of 2019
- WR Chris Conley (0) - One of four receivers with 10-plus targets and over 14 yards per target
- WR D.J. Chark (1) - At least 18 PPR points in both games this year
- TE James O'Shaughnessy (1) - Tied for 15th with nine total targets and has scored six or more PPR points in each game in 2019
Fantasy Rating Key
- (5) - Elite option. Must start.
- (4) - Strong option. Likely start.
- (3) - Good option. Low-end starter to high-end backup.
- (2) - Weak option. Possible flex or desperation play.
- (1) - Bad option. Bench in nearly all cases.
- (0) - Not an option. Injured, bench, or waivers.