TJ's Take: Week 11 NFL DFS Recap

Nov 20, 2018
TJ's Take: Week 11 NFL DFS Recap

Week 11’s winning lineups from the biggest contests on FanDuel and DraftKings can be used to tease out lineup-building strategies and offer clues on how you could have landed on a similar team. Reviewing your hits and misses each week is imperative if you want to be a profitable DFS player but examining winning lineups is also a useful exercise in cultivating a winning approach.

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DraftKings Week 11 Millionaire Winning Lineup

After a week where cheap running backs dominated the scoreboard, Week 11 returned to the 2018 status quo as BillyVonElds took home a cool $1 million by building a lineup around chalky, expensive running backs. In fact, this was one of the chalkier lineups we’ve see this season with only three players owned in fewer than 10 percent of lineups and no roster slot filled by a player on fewer than five percent of lineups. As we’ve seen in the majority of winning Millionaire lineups this season, BillyVonElds opted for a wide receiver in the flex position and he was also able to top a field of over 175,000 entrants even with a dud from Corey Davis.

What Were the Indicators for the Low-Owned Plays?

BillyVonElds took a similar approach to both of his dart throws, rostering TreQuan Smith and D.J. Moore as ancillary pass catchers in popular offenses that were expected to be some of the highest scoring of the week. In the two games preceding Week 11, Moore led all Panthers receivers in snaps. Smith ranked third in snaps among Saints’ skill position players in the four games leading up to Week 11, trailing only Drew Brees and Michael Thomas in that span. While we prefer to roster players who are seeing volume in their respective offenses, looking for players who are simply on the field the most can help uncover hidden GPP-winning gems.

FanDuel Week 11 Sunday Million Winning Lineup

rackerland took a page out of the 4for4 tournament strategy book, offsetting a high-owned core with a low-owned stack. T.Y. Hilton was relatively popular but few owners paired up Hilton with Andrew Luck, fearing a Titans defense that had just stymied Tom Brady and the Patriots. Luck, however, hasn’t just been matchup proof, he’s been record-breaking. Going into Week 11, Luck had thrown at least three touchdowns in six straight games including three against the Jaguars in Week 10.

What Were the Indicators for the Low-Owned Plays?

While Jordan Reed was in a fair amount of lineups on DraftKings—for a tight end, at least—he went mostly ignored on FanDuel. This likely had to do with the fact that Reed hadn’t scored since Week 1 but through 10 weeks, only four tight ends had more targets and that volume eventually results in scores. Additionally, Washington was facing a Texans defense that went into the week ranked 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends.

TJ’s Final Take

Last week, I highlighted running backs who had recently seen an uptick in volume after breakout running backs such as Aaron Jones led winning tournament lineups. This week, we’ll take a look at receivers who have recently seen significant snaps or targets. Combined with last week’s review, some of the under-the-radar plays listed below could make for GPP targets in the coming weeks. Take the Dolphins for example—over the last month, DeVante Parker and Danny Amendola have both played over 85 percent of Miami’s snaps and are averaging over seven targets per game. This week, they will face a Colts defense that ranks 23rd against wide receivers in a game with a projected total over 50 points.

WR Targets and Snaps, Weeks 8–11
Player Team G % Snaps When Active TGTs/G
Robert Woods LAR 4 98% 8.0
DeAndre Hopkins HOU 3 98% 8.3
Antonio Brown PIT 4 97% 9.5
Larry Fitzgerald ARI 3 96% 8.7
Adam Thielen MIN 3 96% 8.7
Brandin Cooks LAR 4 94% 10.0
Kenny Golladay DET 4 94% 8.0
Tyler Boyd CIN 3 94% 8.3
Alshon Jeffery PHI 3 94% 6.0
Danny Amendola MIA 3 93% 7.7
Odell Beckham NYG 3 93% 8.7
Sterling Shepard NYG 3 93% 4.3
Tyreek Hill KC 4 92% 8.3
Corey Davis TEN 3 92% 8.0
Allen Robinson CHI 2 92% 7.5
Davante Adams GB 4 91% 8.8
Cooper Kupp LAR 2 91% 7.0
Doug Baldwin SEA 4 90% 5.5
Julian Edelman NE 3 90% 10.7
Julio Jones ATL 3 90% 10.0
Stefon Diggs MIN 2 90% 14.5
Nelson Agholor PHI 3 89% 5.0
John Ross CIN 2 89% 6.5
Keenan Allen LAC 3 88% 10.3
Zay Jones BUF 3 88% 8.3
Emmanuel Sanders DEN 3 87% 6.3
Josh Doctson WAS 4 86% 5.5
JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 4 86% 7.5
Tyrell Williams LAC 3 86% 5.0
Mike Evans TB 4 85% 9.0
Jermaine Kearse NYJ 3 85% 8.0
DeVante Parker MIA 3 85% 7.3
Marquise Goodwin SF 3 84% 4.3
Christian Kirk ARI 3 84% 5.7
Jarvis Landry CLE 3 84% 8.0
Mohamed Sanu ATL 3 84% 6.3
Tajae Sharpe TEN 3 84% 2.7
Quincy Enunwa NYJ 2 84% 6.0
Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB 4 83% 5.3
Josh Gordon NE 3 83% 9.3
Brandon LaFell OAK 4 81% 4.0
Michael Thomas NO 4 81% 8.3
Amari Cooper DAL 3 81% 7.7
Michael Gallup DAL 3 81% 4.7
Marvin Jones DET 3 81% 8.3
Donte Moncrief JAX 3 81% 4.3
D.J. Moore CAR 4 80% 5.3
Dede Westbrook JAX 3 80% 6.7
Devin Funchess CAR 4 79% 5.3
Tyler Lockett SEA 4 79% 4.3
Courtland Sutton DEN 3 79% 5.0
Jordy Nelson OAK 3 77% 2.7
Taylor Gabriel CHI 4 76% 5.8
T.Y. Hilton IND 3 76% 7.0
Adam Humphries TB 4 75% 6.5
Anthony Miller CHI 4 75% 5.5
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