23 Post-NFL Draft MFL10 ADP Risers & Fallers
With the NFL Draft two weeks behind us, almost 200 MFL10 drafts have been completed. This article will take a look at some of the most notable MFL10 ADP swings since the draft and touch on how you should react to the new public perception of these players.
After Trubisky and Watson were drafted second and 12th overall, respectively, both rookies have seen their ADPs jump 10 spots -- Trubisky is now being drafted in the early 18th round of MFL10s and Watson jumped from a late 17th-round pick to a 16th-rounder.
Because virtually every projected starting quarterback is taken in most MFL10s, and both players are so cheap, owners should consider taking a stab at either rookie quarterback but only on rosters that are weak at the position and require a third signal caller. Since 2000, only six rookie quarterbacks have scored at least 265 FPs, the average score for the QB12 over the last three seasons.
With the addition of DeSean Jackson earlier in the offseason, early MFL10 drafters were already expecting Winston to make a big leap in his third season, but since Tampa Bay added TE O.J. Howard with the 19th pick, owners have been lucky to see Jameis fall to the ninth round of MFL10s.
Except for the top four or five quarterbacks, it’s usually difficult to justify a single-digit round pick on a quarterback, especially in a format that doesn’t necessarily force owners to pay for week-to-week predictability or consistency. Going in the same round as Cam Newton and Matt Ryan, even the biggest Winston truthers might want to wait until the post-draft hype cools down before they buy their shares of the Bucs’ quarterback.
Washington only spent a fourth-round pick on the running back out of Oklahoma, but that was enough draft capital for MFL10 owners to push Perine’s price up to a borderline RB3. At 5-foot-11, 233 lbs, PlayerProfiler.com offers Jordan Howard as Perine’s closest comp, and with Rob Kelley doing very little in 2016 to suggest that he’s a long-term solution as a workhorse back, a backfield committee might be Perine’s worst-case scenario. Perine and Kelly (whose ADP has dropped 20 spots since the draft) are going just one pick apart, and are cheap enough for owners to diversify their portfolios with both Washington backs.
Taken as the 10th running back off the board in the third round of the NFL Draft, Hunt went from virtually free in MFL10s to a player being drafted before Jamaal Charles and Thomas Rawls. Hunt profiles as an Isaiah Crowell-type and will have to make a serious dent in Rushing Expectation All-Star Spencer Ware’s touch share to make a major impact in his rookie season.
Andy Reid typically prefers to have a workhorse running back -- even with Jamaal Charles shelved for virtually all of 2016, a Kansas City back accounted for at least 65% of backfield touches in 11 games -- so owners investing in Hunt should do so with the intentions of drafting a boom/bust player, rather than a back that can provide some floor on a team with a weak running back corps.
Many draft pundits expected the Buccaneers to spend an early-round pick on a running back, but reports leading up to the draft suggest that Tampa Bay is plenty happy with Doug Martin. Once the NFL Draft came to an end and the Bucs had only used a fifth-round pick to address their backfield, MFL10 owners began to move the needle on Martin.
Even with a jump of over two rounds in ADP, Martin is capable of outperforming his RB35 price tag in a Dirk Koetter offense that historically offers as many running back touches as almost any offense in the league. For those that aren’t buying into the Jameis hype, a look in Martin’s direction might be the logical investment.
Gillislee’s ADP spike has nothing to do with the NFL Draft, but New England only had four picks this year, meaning all of their roster shake-ups have come via free agency. After signing a two-year, $6.4 million offer sheet with the Pats, the ex-Bills running back saw his MFL10 price jump over two rounds. Last season, Gillislee was one of the best backs in the league relative to his offensive line, and while any back in the LeGarrette Blount role has massive upside, a single-digit-round price is steep for a player in the most crowded backfield in the league.
No receiver being drafted in the first 15 rounds of MFL10s has seen their price go up more than Corey Davis since the NFL Draft. At 6-foot-3, 209 lbs, Davis' closest comp is Jordan Matthews. If Davis’ game is anywhere close to that of Matthews, Tennessee may have landed the big-bodied, high-volume receiver that they have lacked in recent years, but a fifth-round price tag is a big asking price for a rookie wideout.
Excluding the historic wide receiver class of 2014, only six rookie receivers have eclipsed 65 catches in the last 10 seasons. Even in a league format where the importance of week-to-week consistency is diminished, paying up in hopes of an outlier under a coach that has never shown creativity in the passing game isn’t a gamble that I will usually make.
Steve L Smith’s retirement left over 100 targets vacated in Baltimore’s offense on a team that had the most passing attempts in the league last season. Apparently content with the weapons that they already have, the Ravens didn’t spend a single pick on an offensive skill position player in the draft. With little competition for volume, Perriman is still reasonably priced as the 49th receiver off the board.
Already a popular mid-to-late-round receiver in MFL10s before the NFL Draft, Ross’ ADP is up a full round after Cincinnati drafted him with the ninth overall pick. Ross is recovering from labrum surgery, and while he’s expected to be ready for training camp, any missed reps could hurt his potential rapport with Andy Dalton.
A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert will dominate red zone looks, so at least in his first season, Ross is more likely to benefit the Bengals in real football as a player that will keep the safeties deep than he is to fill up the stat sheet for fantasy purposes. Owners should reserve shares of Ross for MFL10 teams with an already solid receiving corps.
While a jump to the 20th tight end off the board might not seem significant to those that play in traditional redraft leagues, in a best-ball format, where owners are drafting two or three players at the position, Njoku’s price hike is worthy of recognition.
After drafting Njoku with the 29th pick, the Browns released Gary Barnidge, leaving over 220 targets up for grabs in Cleveland with Barnidge and Terrelle Pryor gone. Hue Jackson has a history of favoring the tight end, but rookies rarely offer much fantasy value at the position. Owners still taking a shot at Njoku, even after a two-round jump in ADP, should strongly consider a trio at the position.
One of three tight ends drafted in the first round of the NFL draft, Engram goes to a Giants team that has targeted the position on 20.2% of passes and 21.1% of red zone looks under Ben McAdoo, numbers that rank 21st and 23rd, respectively, in the league since McAdoo took over as the primary play caller.
Before the draft, New York signed arguably the best red zone wide receiver in recent history in Brandon Marshall and will return their top two target options from 2016 in Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard. Early reports that Engram has much to learn as a pro tight end combined with a high-end TE2 price tag should make fantasy owners hesitant to draft the rookie.
One rookie tight end in the last 10 seasons has scored at least 150 PPR FPs, or approximate TE12 numbers -- Rob Gronkowski. After being taken 19th overall in last month’s draft, Howard is being drafted in MFL10s as a fringe TE1 on a team that already has a top-five receiver in the league and just signed arguably the best deep threat in history. Add to the fact that Cameron Brate was more than serviceable as a tight end last season, and betting on a Gronk-like rookie year from Howard could mean a wasted pick at a point in MFL10s where there is still plenty of value to be had.
Kansas City made one of the bigger surprise moves of the draft, moving up in the first round to draft quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Unsurprisingly, Alex Smith’s stock has taken a hit over the last two weeks and he is now barely being drafted as a QB2.
Hill and Bernard have been two of the more polarizing figures in fantasy football over the last couple of years, but their defined roles in a two-man backfield have meant that fantasy owners were willing to put up with the Cincinnati duo for the most part.
Now that the Bengals have spent a second-round pick on Joe Mixon -- who most likely would have been a first-rounder were it not for his off-field issues -- any ceiling that Hill or Bernard offered is likely gone. The Hue Jackson-era Bengals were built for a running back timeshare, but this pick under the new regime suggests that they want to go in a different direction. Bernard could still offer some PPR value, but for the most part, consider Hill and Bernard lottery picks at this point.
If pre-draft MFL10 ADP is any indicator, there were at least a handful of people that thought Dalvin Cook could be the top fantasy rookie running back this year, so it’s no surprise that McKinnon and Murray have seen their ADPs fall off a cliff since Minnesota drafted Cook in the second round.
While Cook’s presence all but kills any fantasy value that McKinnon had left, it could present a value opportunity for any owners targeting Latavius -- he is expected to miss much of the offseason recovering from ankle surgery, so owners may want to wait for Murray’s price to drop into the double-digit rounds before buying.
Once Jacksonville spent the fourth overall pick on LSU running back Leonard Fournette, it became clear that the Jags had little interest in continuing to offer Yeldon much of a role in their backfield. Since 2000, rookie backs drafted in the top 10 have averaged 243 touches per season, and five of those 13 backs surpassed the 300-touch mark.
Tom Coughlin, the new VP of Football Operations in Jacksonville, already has his fingerprints all over this team and it won’t be surprising for the Jaguars to be much more run-heavy than the Jacksonville teams of the past couple years, with the work going almost exclusively to Fournette.
No receiver has seen their ADP drop more since the NFL draft than Tyrell Williams. San Diego drafted wide receiver Mike Williams seventh overall, but Mike will still have to beat out Tyrell to start opposite Keenan Allen. If the rookie, whose closest comp is Laquon Treadwell, struggles early -- like many rookie wide outs tend to -- this could be a chance to draft Tyrell at his floor.
While Matthews and his new teammate, Corey Davis, had virtually identical MFL10 ADPs before the NFL draft, their respective draft positions have diverted from one another over the last two weeks, with Matthews becoming the more affordable commodity.
Now barely being drafted as a WR4, MFL10 owners should strongly consider taking the discount on Matthews, who averaged just under nine targets per game in the second half of the season last year. As mentioned with Mike Williams, rookie wide receivers often struggle to adapt to the pro game and this might be a chance to get the Titans' number one pass-catcher on the cheap.
Recent reports that Benjamin’s weight is closer to that of an offensive lineman than a receiver coupled with the Panthers’ second-round pick of wide receiver Chris Samuels have MFL10 owners understandably nervous about investing in the third-year receiver, but the hate might be going a bit too far.
Even in a debacle of an offensive season for the Panthers, Benjamin still finished as the PPR WR20 last year and he showed his WR1 ceiling in his rookie campaign. Samuels will bring some much-needed speed to Carolina’s receiving corps, but other than Greg Olsen and Benjamin, the Panthers don’t have much to speak of in terms of a red zone threat. If Cam Newton approaches top-five quarterback numbers, like we've become accustomed to, Benjamin could easily outperform his current ADP.
Being drafted as a borderline TE1 before the draft, the addition of O.J. Howard has seen Brate drop more than any other tight end since the NFL draft, and he is now barely being drafted as a top-20 player at his position.
Though Howard will likely be given every chance to occupy the TE1 slot on the Bucs’ roster, Tampa Bay is partial to two-tight end sets, plus rookie tight ends rarely offer much fantasy value. With some of the best pass-catching weapons in the league and the continued progression of Winston, the Buccaneers are a dark horse candidate to be one of the highest-scoring teams in the league. Brate could be a fantastic boom/bust best-ball player to add to a tight end trio.
- Tips From Top Players: MFL10 Strategy with Jen Ryan and Heath Cummings
- Tips From Top Players: MFL10 Strategy with 14TeamMocker and Scott Barrett
- Reacting to the NFL Draft: 11 Players to Target Now in MFL10s
- Optimal MFL10 Roster Construction: Part 2
- Optimal MFL10 Roster Construction: Lessons Learned in 2016
- An Intro to MFL10 Draft-Only Leagues: Prizes, Rules & Basic Strategy