Quarterback Sleepers, Values & Breakouts (2026)

Aug 11, 2026

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Josh Allen is the safest pick at the quarterback position in 2026, and it’s not particularly close. He has six straight finishes in the top two. After Allen, the early board comes with questions. Lamar Jackson is coming off a second-half collapse, Joe Burrow has missed 16 games over the last three seasons, and Jayden Daniels’s QB4 ADP is built mostly on his 2024 campaign. That uncertainty has pushed value down the board, and with quite a bit of talent at the position, late-round quarterback is alive and well.

But before I get into that, let’s take a look back at last year’s iteration of this article to see how the players I highlighted produced versus their 2025 ADP:

Three of my values—Jared Goff (QB11), Justin Herbert (QB9), and Dak Prescott (QB5)—all beat their ADP, which was QB12, QB14, and QB11, respectively. Prescott was the biggest hit, bouncing back from an injury-shortened 2024 to finish in the top five.
The breakouts hit as well. Caleb Williams (QB15 ADP) jumped from QB14 to QB6 in Ben Johnson’s offense, while Drake Maye (QB16 ADP) finished as the overall QB2 at 21.0 points per game with one of the weakest supporting casts of any top-10 quarterback.
Trevor Lawrence (QB20 ADP), coming off back-to-back injury-shortened seasons, stayed healthy and finished QB4 at 19.7 points per game with a career-high 38 total touchdowns.

There were some misses as well, but those were the hits.

Values

Late-round quarterback is absolutely a useful strategy in 2026.

Brock Purdy, 49ers

Purdy is one of my favorite values at the position. His QB24 finish muddies the fact that he was the QB2 on a per-game basis (21.5), closing the year with 26.2, 30.9, and 36.9-point outings. His efficiency was elite—96th percentile in EPA per dropback, and 98th in CPOE. The 49ers lost Jauan Jennings but added Mike Evans and Christian Kirk, and George Kittle should be back for Week 1. As a high-end QB2 in the ninth round, he’s going late enough to back up with another quality passer and run a committee. Durability is the only real concern.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

Mahomes has finished QB10 in total points two years running, but he was the QB4 on a per-game basis last season. The separator was his rushing—he posted career highs in yards (422) and touchdowns (5) at age 30. He might be a little less likely to run this year since he’s coming off of a torn ACL. Rashee Rice is an alpha, Xavier Worthy is a viable WR2, and Travis Kelce is still doing his thing. Mahomes’ days as a consensus top-three pick appear to be over, but getting a quarterback with midrange QB1 upside outside the top 10 at the position is good value.