O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 3

Sep 17, 2025

Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 3 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
8	ATL	CAR	30	22
5	BAL	DET	26	21
9	MIN	CIN	28	19
2	PHI	LAR	18	16
6	LAC	DEN	19	13
19	NYJ	TB	31	12
18	CHI	DAL	29	11
12	DET	BAL	23	11
7	IND	TEN	17	10
1	DEN	LAC	10	9
4	GB	CLE	12	8
13	TB	NYJ	21	8
14	WAS	LVR	22	8
22	CAR	ATL	27	5
23	PIT	NE	24	1
32	HOU	JAX	32	0
3	BUF	MIA	2	-1
21	JAX	HOU	20	-1
27	TEN	IND	25	-2
15	SF	ARI	11	-4
11	ARI	SF	6	-5
10	LAR	PHI	4	-6
16	KC	NYG	9	-7
20	NO	SEA	13	-7
25	MIA	BUF	14	-11
28	SEA	NO	16	-12
30	CIN	MIN	15	-15
17	DAL	CHI	1	-16
26	LVR	WAS	7	-19
24	NE	PIT	3	-21
31	NYG	KC	8	-23
29	CLE	GB	5	-24

Falcons @ Panthers

The Panthers are certainly looking like a defense to (again) attack on either side of the ball, regardless of the matchup. While their rush defense is allowing 0.16 EPA per attempt on the ground (fifth-highest), they are also pairing that with 0.23 EPA per dropback through the air (eighth-highest). Though the Falcons' offensive line isn’t in the top-five stratosphere after losing Drew Dalman to free agency and Kaleb McGary to injured reserve, they’re middle-of-the-pack or better in basically every OL metric, and even lead the league in blown block rate (0.26%).

The odds that Atlanta has issues moving the ball down the field feel minimal, which will be exacerbated by Carolina’s 31st-ranked 18.0% pressure rate through their first two games. Michael Penix Jr. is a great candidate for streaming purposes this week, and beyond the obvious plays of Bijan Robinson and Drake London, Kyle Pitts should remain in fringe TE1/2 territory, and Darnell Mooney is a deep-league FLEX play for managers willing to take on the risk.

Colts @ Titans

After facing what seemed like a paper-thin Dolphins defense in Week 1, the Colts were put to the test against a Broncos pass rush last week, allowing only three hits on quarterback Daniel Jones. They’ll be gifted with another soft matchup here against the Tennessee Titans, who have earned only one sack from their defensive line through two games (Jeffery Simmons). The Colts, who have looked great without free agent losses Will Fries and Ryan Kelly, currently rank 11th in QB pressure rate allowed (33.8%) and third in adjusted sack rate (3.5%), which bodes well for Daniel Jones, who has the eighth-highest QBR from a clean pocket (118.4) and the fourth-highest yards per attempt (9.9).

Those clean-pocket looks have greatly benefited TE Tyler Warren (8-124-0) and WR Michael Pittman Jr. (9-110-1), who both have 12 targets in those scenarios. Warren has quickly ascended to must-start territory, while Pittman is a good bet in the WR3/4 range. Jones is in easier streamer territory in a great matchup and is an easy top-15 play for Week 3.

Lions @ Ravens

Yes, the team that just scored 52 points is a good offense to target. Bold move, huh?

Though the Ravens were able to pressure the combination of Joe Flacco and Dillon Gabriel 17 times in a blowout 41-17 win, they also allowed Josh Allen to complete 71.7% of his passes en route to a 394-yard day the week prior. Jared Goff is nearly the antithesis of Allen, but he also has a far better offensive line and a fair bit more athleticism than Flacco, so let’s try to split the difference.

The Ravens’ back-end has allowed a 92.9% “deserved” catch rate (basically removing drops) and 15.20 EPA on non-pressured pass attempts through these two games, ranking 30th and 26th, respectively. Even with left tackle Taylor Decker playing through a shoulder injury, the Lions rank sixth in QB pressure rate allowed (29.2%). Even removing any sort of OL/DL matchup, this game is slated for the highest point total of the week (52.5), so on the off-chance things go sour, there could be plenty of volume to go around regardless. Fire up all your Lions, but let’s wait until something breaks in his way before we go off the deep end with Isaac TeSlaa.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Commanders vs. Raiders

Maybe this is putting too much weight on one game in which the most important offensive player was clearly hobbled, but the Las Vegas Raiders' passing attack looked moribund in Week 2. With Brock Bowers roaming the field in his Stone Cold knee brace, Geno Smith managed just 4.2 YPA while throwing three interceptions and taking three sacks, good enough to grant the Chargers an easy two-score win that looked out of contention by halftime. It would be easy to blame Geno or poor pass-protection for this walloping, but when defenses know you can’t run on them, it (obviously) creates issues when you want to take to the air.

Through two weeks of action, the Raiders rank dead last in both adjusted line yards (2.80) and RB yards before contact, which sits at an almost-impossibly low 0.06. To give context, the Steelers, Jaguars, and Patriots finished in the bottom three units last year with marks of 1.12, 1.10, and 0.90. The Dolphins, who finished 32nd in ALY, sat at 3.69. This (hopefully) means there is some regression-to-the-mean happening at some point, but the Commanders rank sixth in defensive ALY through two weeks (3.65), so it would come as quite the surprise if this is when Las Vegas gets things going.

Saints @ Seahawks

There are a number of fantastic defensive matchups in Week 3, but with so many of those D/STs sitting at 90% (or higher) ownership, I thought we'd dig up an option for deep leagues and/or cheap DFS deployment. That landed us here in Seattle, where the Saints will take on a Seahawks offensive line that has shown cracks through their first two games, particularly on the right side. Charles Cross and rookie Grey Zabel have held down Sam Darnold’s blindside, but tackle Abe Lucas and guard Anthony Bradford haven't been nearly as dependable on the opposite.

Fourth-year tackle has had questionable tape while allowing two sacks, while Bradford has PFF’s 52nd-ranked pass-blocking grade out of 62 qualifying guards (47.6). The Saints will have a difficult time winning this game outright, but they do still have Carl Granderson and Cameron Jordan (10 combined pressures) to terrorize the edges.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
8	ATL	CAR	32	24
7	IND	TEN	26	19
11	ARI	SF	24	13
3	BUF	MIA	16	13
16	KC	NYG	28	12
9	MIN	CIN	21	12
6	LAC	DEN	17	11
2	PHI	LAR	11	9
17	DAL	CHI	25	8
1	DEN	LAC	8	7
15	SF	ARI	22	7
23	PIT	NE	29	6
14	WAS	LVR	18	4
4	GB	CLE	7	3
18	CHI	DAL	20	2
25	MIA	BUF	27	2
28	SEA	NO	30	2
5	BAL	DET	5	0
32	HOU	JAX	31	-1
13	TB	NYJ	12	-1
12	DET	BAL	10	-2
27	TEN	IND	23	-4
20	NO	SEA	15	-5
26	LVR	WAS	19	-7
10	LAR	PHI	2	-8
24	NE	PIT	13	-11
22	CAR	ATL	9	-13
29	CLE	GB	14	-15
21	JAX	HOU	6	-15
19	NYJ	TB	4	-15
30	CIN	MIN	3	-27
31	NYG	KC	1	-30

Chiefs @ Giants

It may be time to hop off the Isiah Pacheco train, but this Week 3 matchup with the Giants is too good to ignore. New York ranks in the bottom five in yards before contact (2.28) and yards after contact (3.6), while also sitting 28th in broken-plus-missed tackle rate (15.7%). Pacheco hasn’t looked right for nearly a year, and Kareem Hunt hasn’t been much better, but their slow starts came against two defenses that also shut down RB1s: Javonte Williams managed just 3.6 YPC vs. the Eagles, and Ashton Jeanty averaged 3.9 against the Chargers.

There’s also the added boon of the Chiefs heading into this game at 0-2 as touchdown-favorites. The likelihood that they’re up by enough to grind the clock down and get Pacheco back into rhythm makes him a great RB3 option.

Cowboys @ Bears

This is one of those scenarios that just jumps out as an easy matchup to exploit. The Cowboys, who currently rank 8th in adjusted line yards (4.49), face off against a Bears defense that ranks 25th in defensive ALY (4.41) after finishing last season 31st in adjusted yards before contact, which removes QB scrambles, trick plays, and kneels/sneaks. I was out on Javonte Williams all summer long, and whether or not I’m correct on that take doesn’t matter, because I’m certainly eating crow now. Williams is an RB2 candidate even if he doesn’t find the end zone for the third straight game, propped up by plenty of volume in a backfield that doesn’t want to play Jaydon Blue or Miles Sanders.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: