O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 16

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 16 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Broncos vs. Jaguars

The Denver Broncos —and particularly Bo Nix— are coming off of arguably the best game of their 2025 season, with the offense earning over six yards per play and Nix finishing with a massive 8.6% completion percentage over expected. While it wasn’t technically his best fantasy day (he had four scores with two on the ground in Week 7), his 8.88 YPA was the highest mark of his season, while four different receivers caught a touchdown pass. He also once again evaded the nominal pressures his offensive line allowed, leading to his fourth game taking zero sacks.

The team will look to keep those pressures at a minimum here against a Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush that hasn’t had much success getting after the quarterback outside of Josh Hines-Allen. Even with Hines-Allen accruing the fourth-most pressures in the NFL (76), the team as a whole rank only 24th in pressure rate (36.1%) and 28th in adjusted sack rate (5.6%).

On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars’ offense has been on a bit of a roll as of late, so if they can test the stout Broncos defense, we could see some pushback that keeps the pressure on Nix to keep slinging it. While Nix himself is a low-end QB1 option, Courtland Sutton makes for a very strong WR2, with off-and-on Troy Franklin a lower-end WR3.

Steelers @ Lions

The Steelers came out of Monday Night Football with four offensive touchdowns, yet Arthur Smith managed to Arthur Smith the hell out of our fantasy lineups in the process. Aaron Rodgers finished as a moderate QB17 with two of those touchdowns, but both Jonnu Smith and Connor Heyward found the end zone on rushes, which helped absolutely no one. Even Marquez Valdes-Scantling caught one of those passing touchdowns, doing nothing for our fantasy box scores.

Smith will have some chances to bring us back on board here in Week 16, though, as the Lions continue to present us with a juicy matchup. Due, in part, to a rash of defensive injuries —which sadly, seems to be the case for this team by November every year— Detroit has been a shell of itself in the second half of the season. Since the team’s Week 8 bye, they rank as a middling pass rush (5.58% PROE, 18th), while the secondary has allowed the third-most yards (82.6) and second-highest yards per attempt (8.03) when pressuring the quarterback. In those seven games, opposing quarterbacks have averaged 21.2 fantasy points, none of whom fell below the QB14 mark on any given week.

This theoretically should be a smash spot for DK Metcalf against a defense that has been crushed by the deep ball, but Rodgers happens to have an 8.9% deep throw rate (36th/44) and an 11.3% checkdown rate (9th/44), culminating in a league-low 6.0 aDOT. With the Lions projected for the highest total of the slate (29.3), hopefully, we see a little urgency in the Steelers offense, which could push Metcalf closer to a borderline WR1 than a WR3.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Saints vs. Jets

Don’t look now, but the Saints have won back-to-back games and three of their last five. That might not be great news for their NFL Draft positioning, but it’s certainly made for better viewing. In the four games since their Week 11 bye, their defense ranks in the top 10 in completion rate over expected (-1.0%, 7th), adjusted yards per attempt (4.96, 10th), and pass rate over expected (+10.2%, 9th).

They face off against a Jets team that is failing the end-of-season vibe check and will potentially turn to UDFA rookie Brady Cook once again in Week 16. Through 77 professional dropbacks, Cook has a -3.2% completion rate over expected, five interceptions (on seven turnover-worthy plays), and nine sacks taken. Even if the team turns to Tyrod Taylor or Justin Fields, we shouldn’t be too worried about firing the Saints up as a streaming option.

Bills @ Browns

I typically try to fit two streamable teams in this section every week, but there’s enough wiggle room with the Bills’ ownership that they’re at least worth a look to see if they’re available. Buffalo’s pass rush hasn’t exactly been ferocious (+6.46% PROE, 16th), but getting Joey Bosa back at anything resembling full health will be a good sign against this Browns offensive line that has simply run out of gas. Injuries and inconsistent play have pushed Cleveland into the bottom-10 in every conceivable o-line metric, with the most glaring issues popping up in the running game, where they rank dead-last in both adjusted line yards (3.37) and RB yards before contact (0.65).

Box score TFLs don’t do us much good for fantasy D/STs, but that’s where Shedeur Sanders comes in. Sanders took a season-high five sacks in Week 15 and threw three interceptions, boosting his turnover-worthy play rate to 6.0%, the highest mark of any of the 44 qualifying quarterbacks.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Falcons @ Cardinals

The rutterless Cardinals defense will host Bijan Robinson and the Falcons this weekend, and yes, Robinson is a good play in the fantasy semi-finals. Whuda thunk it. Arizona has the grand distinction of ranking 31st in both adjusted line yards (4.90) and broken-plus-missed tackles allowed (15.7%), as Jawhar Jordan (RB18), Blake Corum (RB3), Kyren Williams (RB9), Bucky Irving (RB14), Travis Etienne (RB7), Christian McCaffrey (RB2), and Zach Charbonnet (RB13) have put up top-20 numbers against them over the last six weeks.

In deeper leagues, Tyler Allgeier is in play as an RB3 option.

Vikings @ Giants

It’s hard to argue that the Vikings' offensive line is better equipped to block in the running game than the passing game, though their quarterback play hasn’t helped the bottom line in the latter. But while the team has struggled to keep their quarterback(s) clean, it shouldn’t be overshadowed by how well they’ve done to create space for their backs. Minnesota sneakily ranks in the top 10 in both adjusted line yards (4.63, 6th) and RB yards before contact (1.53, 10th), with three linemen ranking in the top-10 in ESPN’s run-block win rate: Christian Darrisaw (84%, 3rd), Brian O’Neill (79%, 8th), and left guard Donovan Jackson (76%, 5th among iOL).

With the Giants ranking 31st in RB aFPA, this presents a good opportunity for Aaron Jones to give us RB2 value for the first time in nearly two months, while Jordan Mason is an RB3 candidate with touchdown upside.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing:

• Tyjae Spears, Titans
• Kareem Hunt, Chiefs
• Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks
• Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots