Why Every 2025 Fantasy Football First Round Pick Will Bust

Missing on a first-round draft pick can cost you your fantasy season before it even gets started. To properly prepare you against that, in this article, I’ll be going over the bear case for every player being drafted in the top-12 in ADP this year, posing one scenario that could lead to fantasy disaster. Note that this is far from what I think will happen for these players, but more a prediction of what we might point as the reason for why a player was a bust.

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1.01: WR Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals

What if the curse of the 1.01 continues? The top pick in fantasy drafts has been a landmine for six consecutive years. Saquon Barkley (2019), Christian McCaffrey (2020, 2021, 2024), Jonathan Taylor (2022), and Justin Jefferson (2023) all either missed significant time due to injury or massively underperformed after being taken first overall, setting a worrisome precedent for Ja'Marr Chase. Obviously, this is just a pattern and not a tangible concern with Chase, who I think has an essentially bulletproof fantasy case. He’s in a great spot to become the first back-to-back fantasy WR1 since Antonio Brown, but it’s worth noting that we tend to boost up guys to the 1.01 based on the prior year’s production, leaving us underwhelmed the following season.

1.02: RB Bijan Robinson, Falcons

What if Michael Penix isn’t good? Much of Bijan Robinson’s production last season came with Kirk Cousins under center, and the Falcons were a better-than-average offense with Cousins despite his fall off towards the back half of the season. Robinson continued to dominate in fantasy in the two weeks that Penix was the starter — he totaled 260 rushing yards and four touchdowns — but we still need to see a larger sample size of Penix to know that he will be able to support Robinson. Specifically, I’m a bit worried about the passing volume that Robinson will see, as his two lowest receiving yardage totals of the season came with Penix. If on top of that, the Falcons offense as a whole takes a step back with a full season of Penix, then we might find ourselves a bit premature in anointing Robinson as the next legendary fantasy running back.

1.03: RB Saquon Barkley, Eagles

What if the mileage from last season catches up? Between the regular season and playoffs last season, Saquon Barkley totaled a whopping 482 touches, the most any running back has seen since 2014. The track record of players as old as Barkley coming off 400+ touch seasons is questionable at best, with LaDanian Tomlinson being the only player in the last 20 years to hit 20+ PPR fantasy points per game the following season.

At age 27, Saquon Barkley had 482 touches in 2024.



There have been 11 RBs to hit 400+ touches in their age 27+ season since 2004. Only 1 of them have hit 20+ PPG in the following season. LaDainian Tomlinson in 2007.



(worth noting he went from 30.2 to 20.5 PPG📉) https://t.co/zf7jSW49aS pic.twitter.com/GMZfGUpm0d

— Ron Stewart (@RonStewart_) July 8, 2025

Barkley does not have the luxury of elite passing volume like Tomlinson and will continue to lose some goalline work to Jalen Hurts. He will have to keep up his extraordinary per-carry efficiency to live up to his lofty ADP.

1.04: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions

What if David Montgomery continues to get half of the workload? Jahmyr Gibbs has been able to provide a fine fantasy floor splitting time 50/50 with Montgomery so far in his career, but his ceiling will be capped if that timeshare continues. Montgomery has been stellar in two seasons with the Lions, totaling over 1,100 scrimmage yards and 12+ touchdowns in both years. Montgomery was notably rather involved in the passing game last season, with 36 receptions in 14 games. It is fair to project an uptick in usage for Gibbs, given Montgomery suffered a torn MCL in December 2024, but we’ll know exactly where to look if Gibbs is a letdown this season.

1.05: WR CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys

What if George Pickens eats into Lamb’s volume? Since CeeDee Lamb became the top receiver in Dallas in 2022, he has never had a legitimate No. 2 receiver to compete with. Now that Pickens is in town, it remains unclear if Pickens’ presence will be beneficial or harmful to Lamb’s overall fantasy value. I’m hopeful that the Cowboys will be pass-heavy enough to support both of them, but for a player like Lamb who relies on a massive target share to stand out in fantasy, losing some of that volume could do serious damage.

1.06: WR Justin Jefferson, Vikings

What if J.J. McCarthy isn’t good? Justin Jefferson has been held back by his quarterback for his entire career, and not being able to play with someone like Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow is the main reason why he hasn’t had a legendary fantasy season yet. He once again enters this season with a question mark at QB, and if redshirt freshman McCarthy struggles to start his career, Jefferson may have a low fantasy ceiling. Jefferson’s production so far in his career proves that he is fairly QB-proof, but at the end of the day, a receiver can only go as far as his quarterback takes him.

1.07: RB Christian McCaffrey, 49ers

Do I even need to say it? The main concern with Christian McCaffrey, as always, is injury. CMC missed all but four games last season due to a plethora of injuries, namely bilateral achilles tendonitis and a sprained PCL. This was the third time in five seasons that McCaffrey played less than eight games due to injury, giving us serious cause for concern in 2025. The bright side is that McCaffrey has never suffered an injury to the degree of a torn ACL/MCL or an Achilles, but his history of getting banged up certainly makes him more susceptible to a serious injury. He is perhaps the most high-risk, high-reward player in drafts this year.

1.08: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions

What if the Lions offense takes a step back without Ben Johnson? Lions QB Jared Goff has had the luxury of either Sean McVay or Ben Johnson calling plays for him in seven of nine career seasons. In those seven seasons, Goff has averaged north of 270 passing yards and 1.75 touchdowns per game, and has a 78-35 record as a starter. In the two seasons without McVay or Johnson, Goff averaged 206 passing yards and 1.14 touchdowns a game, and has a 3-17-1 record. The difference is so stark that it is reasonable to worry about Goff failing to support the Lions offense this season now that John Morton is replacing Ben Johnson as OC. This would be particularly impactful to Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has relied on large reception totals and double-digit touchdown production to perform in fantasy.

1.09: WR Malik Nabers, Giants

What if the Giants continue to have a terrible offense? Nabers was able to put together a promising rookie campaign despite catching passes from Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, and Tommy DeVito. However, he scored just five touchdowns due to the shortcomings of the Giants offense, and it remains unclear if Russell Wilson and Jaxson Dart will be an upgrade over that. Wilson did not do much for George Pickens’ fantasy value in Pittsburgh last season, while Dart has flashed in the preseason but is still just a rookie. With another year of shoddy quarterback play, the worst case for Nabers is an empty-calorie target season similar to Garrett Wilson these last few years.

1.10: RB Ashton Jeanty, Raiders

What if it just doesn’t click in the NFL? As great as Ashton Jeanty was in college, he did face a notably weaker strength of schedule at Boise State than other recent highly drafted running backs like Bijan Robinson (Texas), Jahmyr Gibbs (Alabama), and Saquon Barkley (Penn State). Jeanty did not look great in preseason, totaling 12 carries for 37 yards and just one catch, and will be running behind a mediocre Raiders offensive line. If Jeanty cannot adjust to the talent level in the NFL, he might go the way of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Najee Harris as disappointing first-round draft picks.

1.11: WR Puka Nacua, Rams

What if Matthew Stafford goes down? Stafford has already missed time in training camp due to a back injury and is far from a lock to play all 17 games at age 37. We have never seen Puka Nacua play without Stafford, and his usage could take a severe hit if Jimmy Garoppolo is his starting QB. Nauca is someone I have circled as a positive touchdown regression candidate after scoring just nine total touchdowns through two career seasons, but those touchdowns may be hard to come by with Jimmy G under center and red zone savant Davante Adams in town as well. This means Nacua’s ceiling this year is closely tied to Stafford’s health.

1.12: RB Derrick Henry, Ravens

What if the Ravens offense regresses? The Ravens were one of the most efficient offenses in NFL history last season, resulting in Derrick Henry scoring 18 touchdowns and running for nearly six yards per carry. Assuming the Ravens offense is a bit closer to what it was in 2023, when they “only” ranked 6th in EPA per play and not 1st, Henry might not be able to rely on such extreme touchdown production. Once you pair that with his complete lack of value in the passing game, his fantasy case starts to get a bit questionable.