Week 2 O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit

Sep 14, 2022

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Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, and that includes the positive and negative impact an offensive line has on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the full Week 2 Rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what o-line/defense match-ups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Lions vs. Commanders

The Lions’ top-five offensive line ranking looked shaky before the first snap of Week 1 when right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai landed on IR the week before kickoff, but Detroit’s offense plugged right along, accruing 181 yards on the ground en route to scoring 35 points, the third-highest mark on the week. They sadly ran into the second-highest scoring team on the week, but we don’t care about that for fantasy purposes. If anything, it’s encouraging if the defense is this soft, as it should give the team’s weapons a higher chance to operate in a fast-paced offense. Though we can’t expect a full season of this from an offense run under Dan Campbell, the Lions actually ranked first in situation-neutral pace of play in Week 1 (25.5 sec/play) after finishing 2021 ranked 29th (32.6 sec/play).

Detroit stood tall against a ferocious Eagles’ defensive interior, but they’re not out of the woods in Week 2 against the Commanders, particularly when looking at the matchup between Washington’s Daron Payne and Vaitai replacement Logan Sternberg. Last year’s fourth-round selection, Sternberg was tossed into action last week and was the victim of four pressures, one sack, and two false starts. Considering he had all of four offensive snaps in 2021 (each of which was as a tight end in jumbo packages), some growing pains were to be expected.

Even if the RG struggles, the team still has plenty of talent to keep Jared Goff up to pepper Amon-Ra St. Brown with a litany of targets, with usage left over for D.J. Chark to operate as a fantasy WR3. If Christian Kirk and Zay Jones can combine for 12 receptions and 182 yards against this defense, I venture to bet that St. Brown/Chark will do just fine.

Chargers @ Chiefs

Like the Lions, the Los Angeles Chargers have 80% of an elite-level offensive line, but L.A’s weak point is at a more pivotal position. Right tackle Trey Pipkins had two solid spot starts towards the end of last season but hasn’t shown much else since coming off the board in the third round of the 2019 draft. His 2022 season started in murky waters, as he tied as the league-leader in blown blocks during Week 1 against the Raiders, logging five of them over 56 snaps, two in the passing game, three in the ground game.

Despite the relative turmoil, Justin Herbert would finish Week 1 as the QB5, translating his 279-3-0 stat line into 23.3 fantasy points. This Thursday, the team heads to Kansas City in the projected highest-scoring game of the week, and Pipkins will engage with a much-lesser pass rush than he did to begin the season. The Chiefs succeeded against a bad Arizona Cardinals offensive line that was forced to play from behind for nearly the entire game. This week should be tougher.

With Keenan Allen forced out of this matchup, look for Mike Williams to operate as a borderline WR1; feel free to stream TE Gerald Everett, and don’t be afraid to plug Josh Palmer in your Flex spot if you need the help. In the lone 2021 game that Allen missed, the Chargers didn’t miss a beat, scoring 37 points and propping Palmer to a 5-66-1 line, good enough for a WR15 finish that week.

Colts @ Jaguars

The Colts wanted to move on from Week 1 so badly that they dropped their kicker in response to what was frankly an embarrassing tie to the Houston Texans. Not many of the issues can be pinned on the offensive line; Jonathan Taylor had above-average yards before contact (YBC), and Matt Ryan had the fifth-lowest percentage of dropbacks while under pressure on the week. Meanwhile, the Jaguars ranked 26th with their 24.4% pressure rate and 28th in adjusted sack rate (5.5%).

First-overall selection Travon Walker lined up over the left tackle through the majority of Week 1, so right tackle Braden Smith —who had a rough go of it in the season-opener— is likely to avoid him for much of this game.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Broncos vs. Texans

Dameon Pierce averaged 0.0 yards before contact in Week 1, meaning, on average, he was hit precisely at the line of scrimmage across his 11 attempts in his rookie debut. Rex Burkhead’s 0.14 average across his 14 attempts paints a picture that this is a Houston Texans problem, not a Dameon Pierce problem, as qualifying running backs as a whole averaged 1.36 YBC per attempt across all of the opening week’s action. This ineptitude on the ground falls in line with 2021’s numbers, in which the Texans finished dead last in Football Outsider’s adjusted line yards with a mark of 3.33, far below the 31st-ranked mark of 3.74.

Things didn’t look much better in the passing game, particularly in the interior, where left guard Just McCray allowed five quarterback pressures despite only pass blocking on 22 snaps. McCray had less than 400 snaps at LG throughout his five-year journeyman career before 2022 and will need a throwback year from former 2x Pro Bowl selection Laremy Tunsil to help secure the left side of the line. The Broncos' defense makes for a high-floor, high-ceiling play in fantasy this weekend.

Patriots @ Steelers

Much to the chagrin of the Bengals' pass rush, the Steelers gave Mitch Trubisky the Ben Roethlisberger treatment in Week 1, running concepts that had him get the ball out in under 2.5 seconds at the second-highest rate in the league, behind only Tom Brady. Regardless of time to throw metrics, there are soft spots along this offensive line to exploit, and as long as Trubisky is at the helm, there is always a chance for a complete meltdown.

With the defense on the other side of the ball having the ability to easily keep Mac Jones under control, this game could be a gross, low-scoring contest on Sunday.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Browns vs. Jets

With all of the gossip surrounding the Cleveland Browns this offseason, the high-level performance of their offensive line over the last two seasons became a forgotten piece of the puzzle. Despite Jacoby Brissett’s mediocrity, he still gets a boost from an elite run game and a clean pocket that will allow him to percolate the ball down the field. A young Jets defensive front stood up well against the Ravens last week, but they were also attempting to contain also-rans Kenyan Drake and Mike Davis while LT Ronnie Stanley remained sidelined. This week, their mettle will be tested against a (mostly) healthy line, Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb, which is a completely different story.

The Browns led the league with their 4.85 adjusted line yards in Week 1, and that was without Jack Conklin, one of the best run-blocking tackles in the league. Even with no update on Conklin’s availability ahead of Week 2, both Chubb and Hunt will be top-24 options, with Chubb a borderline top-five play.

49ers vs. Seahawks

Seattle won the Russ Bowl but surrendered a 19-101 rushing line from the combined efforts of Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. The tandem accrued 48 of those yards before contact, ranking fifth (Williams, 3.14) and fourteenth (2.17) on the week in YBC/att, while the Seahawks' defense ranked 31st in adjusted line yards (5.88).

Though the 49ers are very thin on depth along the offensive line —particularly in the interior— they have enough firepower at tackle in their starting five to perform admirably if they can avoid the injury bug. Regarding injuries, the latest running back to hit the IR as a 49er, Elijah Mitchell, was second in the league in YBC/att (3.83) leading up to his Week 1 departure, which opens up the waiver wire and DFS value plays ahead of Week 2. Jeff Wilson was John Daigle’s number one waiver wire add this week, and for good reason, rookies Jordan Mason and Tyrion Davis-Price combined for zero offensive snaps in Week 1, with the latter being a healthy scratch. Though both will surely be active ahead of this matchup, there’s a good chance that Wilson simply fills into the Elijah Mitchell role, which is exactly what we’re looking for.

Whether it’s scheme or offensive line talent, the debate is wasted breath if the person with the ball in his hands runs far and scores us crooked numbers.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad match-up through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: