DFS Optimal Values, Locks and Fades: Week 6
In this article, we walk through the process of constructing an optimal lineup that will dominate your cash games on the main slate of Week 6. We start with the optimal lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings determined by the Lineup Generator. Then, we identify the players that are irreplaceable and should be locked into your lineup. For the remaining players, we discuss the main alternatives that you can swap in to make a winning team that best fits your own style.
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FanDuel Week 6 Optimal Plays
After going three weeks without a touchdown, Jonathan Taylor ($7,500) has scored three times over the last two weeks. The issue for Taylor is he isn't getting ideal playing time. He's averaging 50% of the team's snaps and he hasn't received over 20 touches in a game since back in Week 1. That said, the Houston Texans are allowing the most rushing yards per game when playing on the road. A discount option at running back this week is Darrel Williams ($5,200). Despite being the backup to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Williams has been the recipient of most of the high-value touches for the backfield this season. Williams has received all the work inside the five-yard line and has at least two receptions in three straight games. Stepping up into the lead back role, there's a chance he gets bellcow usage. The Washington defense ranks 22nd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to opposing running backs.
Cooper Kupp ($8,200) has received double-digit targets in every game this season. He's also averaging over 100 receiving yards per game and his lowest total of the season was 62 receiving yards. Matchup probably doesn't matter all that much with that kind of volume but it doesn't hurt that the Giants have given up the sixth most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers. A cheaper but similar option is Terry McLaurin ($7,400). McLaurin has received double-digit targets in three of his last four games. This week he gets a Chiefs defense that ranks eighth in aFPA to wide receivers and has given up the fourth-most passing yards per game. McLaurin is on the injury report, however.
Keenan Allen ($7,100) doesn't have the juicy matchup that Kupp and McLaurin have but he does have the volume. Allen hasn't received fewer than eight targets in any game and is averaging almost 11 targets per game. The Ravens have been tough on wide receivers this season but it's worth mentioning that they're allowing the second-most passing yards per game when playing at home. A discounted option is Michael Pittman ($5,800), who has six receptions in three straight games. He also caught his first touchdown pass of the season last week. Since Week 2, Pittman ranks 11th in market share of air yards and targets and is facing a soft Texans defense.
Mark Andrews ($6,300) is coming off a monster game receiving 13 targets and totaling 147 yards and two touchdowns. His target totals have risen every week and he gets a Chargers defense that ranks 23rd in aFPA to tight ends. T.J. Hockenson ($6,400) is an interesting pivot who will likely see a dip in his ownership after a few disappointing games. Against tough defenses, the entire Lions offense has seemed to crumble. It should be a good bounce-back week though against a Bengals defense seeing the sixth-highest passing rate against them.
DraftKings Week 6 Optimal Plays
Lamar Jackson ($7,400) is our top value play at quarterback. Jackson flashed his potential as a passer last week with over 400 yards and four touchdowns. He also added 60 rushing yards on the ground. The Ravens and Chargers game has the second-highest projected point total on the slate. To gain salary, there are a few discount options we have as top value plays. Taylor Heinicke ($5,800) would be my favorite of the group. Heinicke had three consecutive 20 point games before posting a dud last week. That was against the Saints who rank second in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. This week he gets the Chiefs who rank 30th. Heinicke also has added 40 rushing yards in back-to-back games and is averaging 25 rushing yards per game this season.
I touched on Jonathan Taylor ($6,600) in the FanDuel section but his appeal is raised a bit on DraftKings. He has three receptions in back-to-back games and you would think that will continue after he housed a screen pass from 70 yards out. However, that wasn't the case for Antonio Gibson ($6,500) when he did it a few weeks ago. He hasn't received more than two targets since Week 1. He has received at least 15 touches in four out of five games, and the Washington and Chiefs matchup has the highest projected point total on the slate. Darrell Henderson ($6,000) could be the cheaper and potentially better version of Gibson. Henderson is averaging roughly 80% of the snaps and has received five targets in two of his four starts. The Giants defense ranks 23rd in aFPA to opposing running backs and the Rams are 10-point favorites.
Tee Higgins ($5,300) has been overshadowed by rookie J'Maar Chase and has also dealt with a few injuries. When he's been on the field he's been productive. Higgins has a near identical share of team targets with Chase and has at least four receptions in every game. In Justin Fields's two starts for the Bears, Darnell Mooney ($4,300) has clearly been the top option. Mooney has received 32% of the team targets and 37% of the team's air yards. Teams have passed at the 10th-highest rate against the Packers this season so hopefully, the Bears will ramp up their league-low passing attempts. Brandin Cooks ($5,800) has had a couple of down weeks after starting the year with three big performances in a row. However, he's still top 10 in air yards and number one in market share of team air yards. If Rashod Bateman ($3,000) is active this week, he becomes pretty interesting at the stone minimum. Sammy Watkins got injured in last week's game and he has been receiving very similar usage to what Marquise Brown was getting. When Watkins went out, Brown exploded. With Watkins officially out, Bateman could step right into a huge role.
Mark Andrews ($5,200) again stands out as a top-two value. There are some cheap options that are interesting though. Hunter Henry ($3,900) may get the benefits of the James White as he received a season-high eight targets last week. He's also scored two weeks in a row. The Cowboys' defense has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,000) will likely be a chalky option after playing almost 100% of the snaps last week. Filling in for Logan Thomas he received nine targets and will be playing in potentially the highest-scoring game of the week.