TL;DR Week 4

Oct 02, 2021
TL;DR Week 4

It's no secret we produce a ton of weekly data-driven, actionable fantasy football content designed to help you win your weekly matchup or cash your DFS lineups and bets. We also know not everybody has the time to read thousands upon thousands of words every week. With that in mind, this weekly TL;DR column is meant to highlight a few can't miss stats, facts, or analyses, broken down by category (season-long, DFS, betting), to aid in your weekly research prep.

TL;DR Season-Long Week 4

  • In the past two games, Philadelphia's EPA (expected points added) per play on offense and defense rank among the league's worst, meaning we should expect them to be in more negative game scripts. Miles Sanders is still the lead back, but this would bode well for rookie Kenny Gainwell, who has been a decent threat in the passing game and has a snap share of just over 30% on the season. (Full Article)
  • Christian McCaffrey handled nine touches before leaving in Week 3 with a hamstring injury. Chuba Hubbard out-touched Royce Freeman by a 14-to-6 margin. Applying that 70% touch share to the team’s total (29) yields 20.3 touches, which is within Hubbard’s range heading into Week 4. The Cowboys have given up 4.97 yards per carry and 57 receiving yards per game to opposing backfields. (Full Article)
  • New Orleans' O-Line is dealing with injuries, most notably LT Terron Armstead, but they still have pieces to make their front a strength, particularly against a Giants pass rush that has forced pressure on only 29.2% of opponent dropbacks (28th). (Full Article)
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling ranks number one in the NFL in targets of 20-plus air yards and 16th among all receivers in air yards share, and currently ranks outside the top-80 in fantasy points per game. (Full Article)

All Week 4 Season-Long Content.

TL;DR DFS Week 4

  • D'Andre Swift doesn’t have the stranglehold on his backfield that we typically prefer when seeking a high floor in cash games but his 6+ catches per game on a full-PPR site such as DraftKings offset some of those concerns. (Full Article)
  • This is my favorite way to stack the Bills because it will be leverage against Stefon Diggs, and Dawson Knox is extremely cheap. In Week 1, the Jaguars' tight ends combined for 20 DraftKings points and 16.5 FanDuel points. In Week 2, the Browns' tight ends combined for 11 receptions and 107 yards. Knox is also a one-off cheap tight end play for me this week. (Full Article)
  • Unlike running backs and quarterbacks, the wide receiver position doesn’t have a clear leader of the pack. Instead, the trio of Davante Adams ($8,100), Tyreek Hill ($8,200), and Cooper Kupp ($8,600) all rate within a single point of one another in 4for4’s value metric, and every cash game lineup should have at least one of these three elite plays. (Full Article)
  • Cordarrelle Patterson is stealing the headlines as the Falcons' most productive player but Mike Davis has received a consistent workload. He's had at least 15 touches in every game and is averaging almost six targets per game. The Washington Football Team is allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game this season. (Full Article)

All Week 4 DFS Content.

TL;DR Betting Week 4

  • While DVOA is adjusted for strength of opponents, the sample size at this point is still too small for that adjustment to be meaningful for a defense facing such a soft opening schedule like the Panthers. Enter the Cowboys, with the NFL’s sixth-best offense and eighth-fastest situation neutral pace. They’ve averaged 30 points per game, so their implied total of 27.5 points does show respect to the Panthers’ defense. (Full Article)
  • Jacoby Brissett has yet to throw a touchdown pass in 89 attempts. This isn’t a total indictment of Brissett, however, as Miami’s offensive line has played miserably thus far. The main takeaway is that all is not right with the Dolphins offensively. (Full Article)
  • The Falcons have allowed 31.3 points per game through three weeks. That ranks third-worst in the league and there are simply no signs of expected improvement. They lack ability on that side of the ball. (Full Article)
  • In the 99 snaps Ty Johnson has played, he's run a route on 44 of them. His 44% routes per snap rate is the highest on the team among Jets running backs and is a clear sign he isn't as much of a threat as Tevin Coleman or Michael Carter to run the ball. (Full Article)

All Week 4 Betting Content.

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