TL;DR Week 16

Dec 25, 2021
TL;DR Week 16

It's no secret we produce a ton of weekly data-driven, actionable fantasy football content designed to help you win your weekly matchup or cash your DFS lineups and bets. We also know not everybody has the time to read thousands upon thousands of words every week. With that in mind, this weekly TL;DR column is meant to highlight a few can't miss stats, facts, or analyses, broken down by category (season-long, DFS, betting), to aid in your weekly research prep.

TL;DR Season-Long Week 16

  • The Bears continued an unfortunate trend in Week 15, allowing 3 sacks for the 17th time in their last nine games while in the process turning the ball over 3 times. As a team, they have now committed 25 turnovers, which is the fourth-most in the league. (Full Article)
  • Devin Singletary handled 23 of the team’s 24 backfield touches in Week 15. The Patriots have given up an average of 147 yards and 0.60 touchdowns to opposing backfields since Week 10. (Full Article)
  • In his first game without Urban Meyer, James Robinson logged an 84% snap share, a 15.7% target share, an 88% share of running back opportunities and ran a route on 66.6% of dropbacks. (Full Article)
  • DK Metcalf’s catchable target rate sits at just 77%, outside the top-40 receivers, suggesting Russell Wilson has been fairly inaccurate when targeting Metcalf. Metcalf’s true catch rate, which factors-out uncatchable passes, ranks outside the top-90 receivers, meaning the blame belongs to both players. (Full Article)

All Week 16 Season-Long Content.

TL;DR DFS Week 16

  • The Jets have given up 508 DraftKings points & 441.4 FanDuel points to opposing RBs this year—80 points more than any other team. The Jets have also given up 25 TDs to RBs this season—the most in the NFL. (Full Article)
  • Over the last three weeks, Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson are the only active players with more targets than Amon-Ra St. Brown ($5,600), whose 45% target share is second to just Kupp in that span. (Full Article)
  • Our top value play at RB is Alexander Mattison ($5,500) after Dalvin Cook was placed on the COVID-19 list. Mattison has received at least 25 touches in every game he's played at 60% of the snaps. It's a tough matchup though as the Rams are being run on the seventh-lowest rate and are allowing the third-lowest yards per carry. (Full Article)
  • In the last two weeks, Mark Andrews saw 24 targets that turned into an average of 34 DraftKings points. In that span, he leads the Ravens in target share (30%) and air yards share (35%). (Full Article)

All Week 16 DFS Content.

TL;DR Betting Week 16

  • Davis Mills has thrown five touchdown passes while completing 67.5% of his passes since Week 7, however, he also ranks last in the NFL in QBR over that same span. (Full Article)
  • The Seahawks rank 13th in passing offense DVOA and 11th in rushing offense DVOA. Meanwhile, the Bears rank 22nd on defense, both against the pass and the run, so Seattle should be able to move the ball. (Full Article)
  • The Broncos have had six games this season where their opponent has scored 16 or fewer points, and they are 5-1 in those games. (Full Article)
  • Zach Ertz's splits with and without DeAndre Hopkins are quite stark. When Hopkins plays, Ertz runs a route on 70.6% of dropbacks and earns a 14.2% target share. However, without Hopkins, Ertz's routes per dropback rate jumped to 84.4% and his target share jumps to 20.4%. (Full Article)

All Week 16 Betting Content.

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