NFL Week 16: Spread Bets
Week 15 Recap: I don’t want to talk about it.
Season Record: 24-22 ATS.
Week 16 NFL Spread Bets
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Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
The Chargers have won six consecutive road games outright as at least a 7-point favorite, which is the sixth-longest active streak in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Their last outright road loss as chalk of at least seven points came in Week 16 of the 2010 season when they fell to the Bengals. Otherwise, the Bolts have taken care of business in these situations. More importantly for us, they’re 4-2 against the spread on the road this season.
Quarterback Justin Herbert needs only two more passing touchdowns to tie Philip Rivers in 2008 for the most passing touchdowns in a single season in Chargers history. He also only needs 106 passing yards to join Kurt Warner and Patrick Mahomes as the only quarterbacks since 1950 with 8,500 passing yards and 60 passing touchdowns through 30 career starts. In other words, he’s been nothing short of remarkable and will face a Houston team ranked 28th in total defense and 29th in scoring while allowing 378.4 yards per game (YPG) and 26.6 points per game (PPG) in 2021.
The Chargers can’t stop the run (they rank last in defensive rush success) but the Texans rank dead last in rushing yards this season with 1,083. Part of Houston’s inefficiency has to do with trailing in most games, but the fact remains the Texans are ill-equipped to take advantage of the Chargers’ biggest weakness defensively. Davis Mills has thrown five touchdown passes while completing 67.5% of his passes since Week 7, however, he also ranks last in the NFL in QBR over that same span.
Pick: 1.10 units on Chargers -9.5 at FanDuel to win 1 unit.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Giants coach Joe Judge is seemingly on the hot seat, although I don’t know what anyone expects him to do with one of the worst rosters in football. Before replacing the head coach again, perhaps New York’s front office should take a look at the man responsible for the team’s draft and free agency, which would be GM Dave Gettleman.
Under Gettleman, the Giants have consistently whiffed in the draft—the lifeblood of any good organization in sport—and in free agency, where he shelled out big money to underperforming veterans. The results? An offense ranked 27th in the NFL, a defense ranked 25th and a 4-10 record with a likely last-place finish in the NFC East.
On Sunday, the Giants will visit an Eagles team with everything to play for over their final three games. Philadelphia is currently on the outside looking in when it comes to a playoff spot in the NFC, but the team also remains in the mix for a Wild Card berth. The Eagles weren’t perfect in Wednesday night’s 27-17 win over a depleted Washington team, but Jalen Hurts did throw for 296 yards with one touchdown and an interception. Miles Sanders also rushed 18 times for 131 yards and continues to fuel a Philly rushing attack that has come alive over the past month.
I anticipate Joe Judge naming Jake Fromm his starter for Sunday, although it’s worth noting Fromm is splitting first-team reps with Mike Glennon this week at practice. Regardless of who starts for the Giants, their offense hasn’t scored more than 21 points over their last five games. The Eagles have quietly put together a solid season defensively and as long as they contain Saquon Barkley, Philly will roll on Sunday.
Pick: 1.10 units on Eagles -9.5 at FanDuel to win 1 unit.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
Robert Quinn and the Bears can blame the officials all they want for what transpired in their 17-9 loss to the Vikings on Monday night, but the bottom line is that Chicago needs an overhaul—starting with GM Ryan Pace and head coach Matt Nagy.
There’s no excuse for a team led by an offensive coach to be so inefficient in the red zone. The Bears had six drives in Minnesota territory that resulted in a grand total of zero points, which is the most in a game since 2015. The Bears also had four unnecessary roughness penalties in the loss, which tied for the most in a game this season and the most in Chicago’s last 20 seasons. They also dropped four passes (a season-high), lost three fumbles (their most since 2016) and have now finished with three or more turnovers in three straight games.
Worse yet, rookie QB Justin Fields has shown little to no improvement this season. He’s 0-7 in his last seven starts and there was a moment on Monday night when the Bears needed three yards to pick up a first down deep in Minnesota territory and instead of making even a veiled attempt to complete a pass, he simply ran out of room and fell down, which resulted in Chicago turning the ball over. That’s not on Fields—that’s on his coaching staff. Remember, he was on the same field as Mac Jones when Ohio State played Alabama in the national championship. Jones, who won that game, is a shoo-in to win Offensive Rookie of the Year for a Patriots team headed to the playoffs, while Fields is in the midst of a lost season in what should be a key developmental year.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks fell to 5-9 with a loss to the Rams on Tuesday night, but they have struggled versus L.A. for years. This season got off to a rocky start well before Week 1, as reports surfaced Russell Wilson wanted out. He has denied those rumors, but they persist well into his worst season—injury and performance—as a Hawk.
Nonetheless, the Bears aren’t traveling up to Seattle and beating the Seahawks in front of the 12th man. This line is too short, jump on it before it gets to seven or higher.
Pick: 1.10 units on Seahawks -6.5 at DraftKings to win 1 unit.
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