Game Flowbotics: Week 16 Picks Against the Spread
Happy holidays, everyone. We’ve made it to Week 16. COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc on player and coach availability around the NFL, so forecasting how matchups will play out is even more challenging than normal. Hopefully, the Game Flowbotics spreadsheet can help. It gathers pace and efficiency data from Football Outsiders and color-codes the various offense-versus-defense matchups on both sides of the ball to give a holistic overview of each contest on the slate. I’ll use the spreadsheet to make a few picks against the spread below, but before we get there, let’s review how last week went.
Accountability
I continued to tread water again last week, going 3-3 with my picks for a loss of 0.28 units. Year to date, my record is 60-52-1 (53.6%) and I’m up 5.43 units overall. With last week’s picks, I hit on Kansas City (-3), but considering their six-point victory over the Chargers required overtime, that win felt a little lucky. Meanwhile, Patriots (+2.5) was a loss for me, but I wonder how much different that matchup might have played out if the Colts hadn’t managed an early special teams score. In any case, we found out that when Jonathan Taylor is given a full game’s worth of touches, not even Bill Belichick can contain him.
I also missed on the team total over (20.5) for Cincinnati, but that was a weird game. Teddy Bridgewater got hurt, and there simply wasn’t much urgency from the Bengals to push their pace and put up points. That lack of aggression from Bengals coach Zac Taylor is something to remain wary of going forward, though.
We could say the same thing about Mike Zimmer and the Vikings, too. They could have easily scored more than 17 points against Chicago, but Minnesota played conservatively, content to win without cracking their team total of 23.5. Thankfully, the Vikes still managed to cover the 3.5-point spread, so I was only half-wrong with my picks for that particular matchup.
Lastly, I correctly made the quick and dirty case for Buffalo to lay 10.5 points against Carolina. I was confident in the pick but filed it under “Rapid-Fire” because the analysis was more straightforward and concise. But after last week, I’ve realized the whole concept of my “Rapid-Fire” picks isn’t really that helpful. I need to be discerning when I recommend picks, and if I feel strongly enough to write up a particular angle, it might as well be considered a “Best Bet.” Apologies for taking all season to figure this out. I often have a problem with “fancy play syndrome” when it comes to content creation, but I’m always trying to improve, so the “Rapid-Fire” section will be eliminated from this week forward.
Week 16 Game Flowbotics
[subscribe_betting]
Here’s this week’s worksheet:
For background on Game Flowbotics and information on how to use the spreadsheet, check out my first article in this series and the Game Flowbotics primer.
As always, this tool is not a model. It isn’t going to tell us who to pick. Instead, it’s a visualization resource to help us gather information and compare opposing forces in NFL matchups. It’s up to us to translate those considerations into picks on our own. With that in mind, let’s get to my favorite angles this week.
Week 16 Best Bets
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals
After Indianapolis beat down New England and Arizona caved in against Detroit last week, the “zig when they zag” play is to back the Cardinals here in Week 16, but from a Game Flowbotics process perspective, I want to hunker down in a snow fort with Indy. The Colts rank slightly better than the Cardinals in DVOA (eighth vs. ninth) and notably better in weighted DVOA (6th vs. 11th), but Indianapolis is the team getting points. The Packers, Panthers and Rams have all beat the Cards in Arizona, so I don’t think home field will mean much in this spot against the Colts.
I hate backing Carson Wentz, but at the same time, it’s not as if Arizona is especially trustworthy at this point in the season. Sure, they’re 10-4 on the season, but 3-4 over their past seven. We can blame some of their recent Jekyll and Hyde performance on Kyler Murray missing time, but there are other issues in play. Even when he’s been on the field, DeAndre Hopkins has been missing in action all season, and a number of other weapons from the Cardinals' offense are also working through injuries, including James Conner, Rondale Moore and the recently returned Chase Edmonds. It should also come as no surprise that Arizona’s recent 3-4 run began immediately after J.J. Watt’s season-ending injury back in Week 7. The Colts have some injury issues of their own—offensive lineman Ryan Kelly and Mark Glowinski are set to miss this game—but they still rate as the more efficient team and should be favored, but they aren’t, so take the free points.
Pick: IND (+1.5) -110 at FanDuel, risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
When these teams last met in Week 13, the Patriots as underdogs made for a nice process play, especially considering the miserable forecast for that game. Now at home, the Pats are favored, and the conditions figure to be more conducive to the wondrous enterprise of two NFL teams actually scoring points against each other. Both these franchises have top-three defenses by DVOA, but after getting run over like grandma by a herd of reindeer in their last meeting, the Bills have something to prove here as they chase the Patriots in the AFC East standings. For that reason, I think we’ll see the best the Bills have to offer. I don’t know if that means Buffalo will win or cover, but my instinct is to fade the low-scoring expectation from their last meeting with New England.
Pick: Over (43.5) -110 at DraftKings/FanDuel/PointsBet/Caesars, risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
Here I go again, backing one of the mercurial NFC West teams. I try to avoid this whenever possible, but betting against the Bears right now is too tantalizing. It worked last week with the Vikings, so I’m letting it ride this week with the Seahawks, one of the few teams in the NFL with a legitimate home-field advantage. It’s difficult to illustrate that advantage when you look at their schedule to date, but look at the teams Seattle has faced at home this season—a healthy Titans team back in Week 2, followed by the Rams, Saints, Jaguars, Cardinals and Niners. One of those teams is not like the other, and that Jacksonville squad suffered a 31-7 drubbing at the hands of Russell Wilson and company. Chicago isn’t as bad as Jacksonville, but we’re only asking Seattle to win by seven, not 24.
Despite their struggles, the Seahawks rank 13th in passing offense DVOA and 11th in rushing offense DVOA. Meanwhile, the Bears rank 22nd on defense, both against the pass and the run, so Seattle should be able to move the ball. On the other side of the matchup, Chicago doesn’t have the talent or the scheme on offense to take advantage of Seattle’s 25th-ranked defense, especially when the Bears’ running game pressure release for Justin Fields might struggle against the Seahawks’ seventh-ranked run defense. Fields might not even be under center either, as he was downgraded from limited in Wednesday’s practice to out on Thursday. That means the Seahawks’ defense will get to tee off against a hobbled Fields or Andy Dalton as a last-minute replacement. In either case, the Bears’ chosen signal-caller will be working with limited surrounding talent on offense. It might not be pretty, but I expect Seattle to take care of business and cover.
Pick: SEA (-6.5) -105 at Caesars, risk 1.05 units to win 1 unit.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
The Steelers haven’t had an impressive win since Week 5 over Denver, and now they’re visiting Arrowhead to face the Chiefs. Kansas City ranks fourth in weighted overall DVOA and 10th in weighted defensive DVOA, so it’s hard to imagine Pittsburgh’s 22nd-ranked offense getting much going. I would normally expect the Chiefs to hang a healthy number of points in this spot, but it’s tough to trust their offense with both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce on the COVID-19 list. Furthermore, NFLweather.com currently forecasts this game for wind speeds between 16 and 17 miles per hour, which should stifle scoring from both sides. All these factors have put me on the under.
Pick: Under (44.5) -110 at FanDuel/Caesars, risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, everyone!
Please follow @GameFlowbotics on Twitter to get each week’s Game Flowbotics spreadsheet as soon as it’s available, and feel free to contact me there or @gregsauce to discuss the spreadsheet or my picks. For the most up-to-date picks subscribe to 4for4’s Discord. This sheet, from Dan Rivera, tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff). Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.
