Game Flowbotics: Week 15 Picks Against the Spread
Week 15 is here and byes are officially over, so we get to dig through a full slate of games to find our favorite bets against the spread. Well, sort of. Yes, we have a full schedule of 16 games, but many of those contests will be adversely affected by the NFL’s recent outbreak of COVID-19 cases. As a result, the pace and efficiency data from Football Outsiders in the Game Flowbotics spreadsheet might mean less in some matchups than in a typical week. So, if a spread or total looks fishy, check the news for potential impacts on coach and player availability. By the same token, if any of my picks below seem strange relative to the current news on teams, remember that I write these articles on Wednesday with limited information. Before we hit the Week 15 best bets, let’s revisit last week’s performance.
Accountability
Last week, I went 3-3 with my picks for a gain of 0.31 units. Year to date, my record is 57-49-1 (53.8%) and I’m up 5.71 units overall. Since Week 10, my record is 19-18. I just can’t seem to break away from a .500 baseline, and it’s beginning to feel tilting. On the bright side, my best bets last week went 3-1, and I’ve generally been good at assigning more confidence to picks in the best bets section. But that begs the question—if my rapid-fire picks are dragging down my overall record, then why make them? The short answer is I enjoy doing the extra analysis, and I want to bring you readers the most content possible. Still, if that content is trending unprofitable, it might be time for a change.
I’m going to stick to standard operating procedure this week and hope to break the trend with sound analysis and picks, but as you’ll see, I only found one rapid-fire pick I like this week anyway. Regardless, when the results are in next week, I’ll revisit this battle between best bets and rapid-fire picks to see if my process needs to change down the stretch of the regular season.
Week 15 Game Flowbotics
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Here’s this week’s worksheet:
For background on Game Flowbotics and information on how to use the spreadsheet, check out my first article in this series and the Game Flowbotics primer.
As always, this tool is not a model. It isn’t going to tell us who to pick. Instead, it’s a visualization resource to help us gather information and compare opposing forces in NFL matchups. It’s up to us to translate those considerations into picks on our own. With that in mind, let’s get to my favorite angles this week.
Week 15 Best Bets
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Both these teams have top-five offenses by DVOA, but Kansas City has the better defense—only 17th in DVOA, but way up at seventh in weighted DVOA, which accounts more for recent performance. We’ll see if the Chiefs defense can keep humming in the potential absence of defensive tackle Chris Jones and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed. But even if Kansas City is shorthanded on defense, their remaining defenders' jobs will be easier than normal against a Chargers offense likely without left tackle Rashawn Slater.
On the other side of the matchup, Kansas City has a distinct advantage with their sixth-ranked rushing offense against Los Angeles’ league-worst rushing defense. It might not matter much if these teams get into shootout mode, but it means the Chiefs should be able to salt the game away if they need to (or blow it open if the Chargers overcommit to stopping the run), which is nice when the spread is only three points.
Pick: KC (-3) -108 at SugarHouse/Unibet, risk 1.08 units to win 1 unit.
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts
Both teams are coming off a bye and should be equally “well prepared” for this matchup. Still, I’m conditioned to assume Bill Belichick’s squad will somehow be better prepared, and I can’t wait to see what he has schemed up in an attempt to neutralize Jonathan Taylor. More important for the sake of this bet, we also get to see what Belichick has up his cutoff sleeves for Carson Wentz. Indy’s quarterback has looked a lot better recently than he did early in the season, but New England’s defense is nightmare fuel for shaky opposing passers. They rank third in passing defense DVOA, largely because they excel at getting after the quarterback, ranking fourth in adjusted sack rate.
Beyond the scheme intrigue, this matchup presents a simple process play. According to DVOA, New England ranks better than Indianapolis overall, on defense and on special teams. The Colts rate slightly better on offense by DVOA, but when accounting for more recent performance in weighted DVOA, the Patriots' offense overtakes them and rates better. In other words, the Patriots are peaking and better across the board right now than the Colts. Somehow, though, the Pats are still underdogs in this matchup. I’m taking the points.
Pick: NE (+2.5) -105 on DraftKings, risk 1.05 units to win 1 unit.
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos
The Broncos want to smash opponents in the mouth with their eighth-ranked rushing offense, but the Bengals' defense lines up well against that particular strength (10th in run defense DVOA, fifth in adjusted line yards allowed). In the passing game, those same Cincinnati defenders do a good job of rushing the passer (ninth in adjusted sack rate), while Denver doesn’t tend to fare well in pass protection (25th in adjusted sack rate).
Maybe you skipped ahead to my pick below and are wondering what any of this has to do with the Bengals’ team total? Well, I’m trying to illustrate how their defense should find some success in this matchup and create some combination of turnovers and/or short drives from the opposition. Creating extra possessions like that through defense should help the Bengals’ offense put at least 21 points on the scoreboard. To that point, despite playing at the league’s third-slowest situation neutral pace, Cincinnati has scored at least 21 points in 11-of-13 games (averaging 27.2 points per game). A measly 21 points from the Bengals shouldn’t be too much to ask.
Pick: CIN Team Total Over (20.5) -115 at DraftKings, risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
I know I'm taking my life (or wallet?) into my own hands asking the Vikings to cover, but I can't help but like them in this matchup. There's a big talent discrepancy here in favor of Minnesota, exacerbated by Chicago likely to be without offensive tackles Larry Borom and Jason Peters in this game. It's not as if the Bears were set up well with those guys healthy in the first place, as their offensive line currently ranks dead-last in adjusted sack rate and 24th in adjusted line yards.
Meanwhile, the Bears' defense is backsliding—down from 24th in standard DVOA to 28th in weighted DVOA. The Vikes have DVOA’s 11th-best offense, and in all of Chicago’s matchups against top-13 offenses this season, they’ve allowed an average of over 33 points per game. Across all their matchups to date, the Bears have allowed an average of 25.5 points per game. Even without Adam Thielen, Minnesota should be able to crest 24 points in this contest and cover the 3.5-point spread.
Pick: MIN (-3.5) -110 at DraftKings/PointsBet/Caesars, risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Pick: MIN Team Total Over (24) -108 at FanDuel, risk 1.08 units to win 1 unit.
Week 15 Rapid-Fire Picks
Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills
No mind-blowing analysis here, I just think the line should be higher. Buffalo is a top-five team, and they're at home against a Carolina team sitting at 28th in weighted total DVOA. The Carolina defense is supposedly solid, but their recent performances paint a different picture. Over their past three games, the Panthers have allowed an average of 29.7 points per game versus Washington, Miami and Atlanta. That doesn’t inspire any confidence for this matchup against the Bills’ high-powered offense. On the flip side, Carolina's offense is so bad, they’re actually using a quarterback committee. This has literally never worked in the modern NFL, and I can’t envision this specific combination of Cam Newton and P.J. Walker setting a new precedent against Buffalo’s top-three defense, so I’m laying the wood.
Pick: BUF (-10.5) -110 at FanDuel/PointsBet/Caesars/SugarHouse/Unibet, risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, everyone!
Please follow @GameFlowbotics on Twitter to get each week’s Game Flowbotics spreadsheet as soon as it’s available, and feel free to contact me there or @gregsauce to discuss the spreadsheet or my picks. For the most up-to-date picks subscribe to 4for4’s Discord. This sheet, from Dan Rivera, tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff). Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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