FFPC Best-Ball Win Rates: Tight Ends

Apr 14, 2020
FFPC Best-Ball Win Rates: Tight Ends

Tight end is not a position most people get fired up about, however, grabbing the right ones in best-ball formats can be advantageous to your wallet at the end of football season. FFPC leagues add another notch to the fun by placing premium scoring on the usually ignored position, giving 1.5 pts per reception to the tight end.

This piece will delve into the 12 tight ends with the highest win rate percentages in FFPC leagues from 2019, pointing out any patterns or trends we can utilize for drafting the position in 2020.


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Highest TE Win Rates

FFPC Top 12 TE Win Rates, 2019
Player Rank Win Rate % ADP
Mark Andrews 1 17.9% 10.12
Darren Waller 2 17.4% 15.05
Austin Hooper 3 15.9% 7.09
Mike Gesicki 4 13.1% 16.07
Zach Ertz 5 12.9% 2.08
George Kittle 6 12.6% 2.09
Travis Kelce 7 11.8% 1.07
Dallas Goedert 8 11.2% 11.08
Will Dissly 9 10.5% 23.01
Gerald Everett 10 9.7% 18.04
Greg Olsen 11 9.2% 12.06
Jack Doyle 12 8.9% 11.06

It’s no secret that volume is king when it comes to fantasy production, especially in formats with premium scoring, and this list is stacked with target leaders from 2019. The seven tight ends with the highest number of targets were also the top seven in win rate percentage, with Dallas Goedert (TE9), Greg Olsen (TE11) and Jack Doyle (TE13) still in the TE1 conversation. The only outliers here were Gerald Everett (TE19) and Will Dissly (TE43), but more on them later.

Early-Round Review

The following section will examine the tight ends drafted within the first six rounds who ended up on the highest percentage of winning FFPC teams in 2019.

Highest TE Win Rates, Rounds 1-6
Player Rank Win Rate % ADP
Zach Ertz 5 12.9% 2.08
George Kittle 6 12.6% 2.09
Travis Kelce 7 11.8% 1.07

The big three at tight end are known as such for a reason, and they all have a seat at the highest win rate table. Travis Kelce came from Round 1 with George Kittle and Zach Ertz boasting second-round ADPs in 2019. Managers who paid up for this trio were rewarded, as Ertz, Kittle and Kelce were on 12.9%, 12.6% and 11.8% of winning teams, respectively. However, if we dig a little deeper, we see that only 25% of winning teams drafted their tight end by the second round and a whopping 75% of winners took their tight end by the eighth, with an average of the early-sixth round for all winning FFPC teams.

Taking a tight end early is certainly a choice that has proven successful in redraft leagues in recent years, but it may behoove players to diversify their best-ball leagues to cover all ends of this volatile position.

Favorite Early-Round Picks: George Kittle (2.07), Mark Andrews (4.06)

Mid-Round Review

This portion will take a look at the tight ends who left draft boards in the seventh through 14th rounds in 2019, and found themselves with the highest win rates among FFPC teams.

Highest TE Win Rates, Rounds 7-14
Player Rank Win Rate % ADP
Mark Andrews 1 17.9% 10.12
Austin Hooper 3 15.9% 7.09
Dallas Goedert 8 11.2% 11.08
Greg Olsen 11 9.2% 12.06
Jack Doyle 12 8.9% 11.06

This is where the highest number of tight ends from this list were drafted last season. Five of the top 12 players in win rate percentage came from these eight rounds, and if drafters decide to skip the top five tight ends in 2020, this set of picks is a solid alternative to snag your TE1.

Austin Hooper was the lone seventh-rounder and he was on 15.9% of winning best-ball teams at FFPC. He’s as unsexy as they come in football, but finished as TE6 in TE-premium scoring as Matt Ryan’s safety valve in the middle of the field. He’s now in Cleveland as the second-highest paid tight end in the game which is a massive head-scratcher, but whatever. Hooper’s new situation in the Browns' crowded offense and questionable volume are of concern, making him a lower TE1 target this season. Consequently, his ADP dropped from 6.11 to 7.09 after Hooper’s move to Cleveland.

The 10th round brought us Mark Andrews, the tight end with the highest win rate percentage in 2019. He absolutely crushed his APD, ending as TE5 in overall TE-premium points. Andrews was TE1 in total targets, TE1 in total touchdowns with 10, and TE7 in receptions. He achieved it all while battling late-season knee and ankle injuries, yet still played in every game except Week 17. His touchdowns may regress, but we should see an uptick in his usage this season in Year 3 of the Lamar Jackson- Mark Andrews era in Baltimore. is

Dallas Goedert and Jack Doyle both came out of the 11th round to end up on 11.2% and 8.9% of winning teams, respectively. Both of these tight ends were higher-volume guys, finishing as TE9 and TE13 in total targets last season. Goedert’s usage was a bit surprising as he essentially doubled his volume in his second year in the NFL from 44 to 87 balls, but the Eagles were also without DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor for part of the season. The 25-year old proved he can have stand-alone value with Ertz in the mix though, and Philly should continue to call his number in 2020. Goedert presents some value right now as he’s being drafted as TE12 at 13.02.

Doyle didn’t have a spectacular 2019, finishing as TE14 in TE-premium scoring, with most of that coming in the early part of the season. His quarterback had knee issues down the stretch which played a role in his rough final four contests. He was TE13 in total targets with 72 though, which he turned into 448 yards and four touchdowns. Doyle did stay healthy himself, and if he can remain on the field in 2020, has the potential to best his current mid-15th ADP.

Greg Olsen came out the 12th round and was 11th in win rate percentage on FFPC. Olsen managed to play in 14 contests last season, after a rough 2018 campaign due to a nagging foot injury. The 13-year veteran was steady throughout the season and was TE11 in total targets. Olsen is now in Seattle and is no more than a late-round stab in best-ball, due to several factors including competition not only at his position but among all pass-catchers, and of course his coaches’ need to establish the run ad nauseam.

Favorite Mid-Round Picks: Tyler Higbee (11.05), Jared Cook (12.01), Mike Gesicki (14.02), Dallas Goedert (13.02)

Late-Round Review

Below you'll find the highest win rate tight ends from the latter part of drafts - Rounds 15-20.

Highest TE Win Rates, Rounds 15-20
Player Rank Win Rate % ADP
Darren Waller 2 17.4% 15.05
Mike Gesicki 4 13.1% 16.07
Will Dissly 9 10.5% 23.01
Gerald Everett 10 9.7% 18.04

Darren Waller certainly outproduced in 2019, propelling those who drafted him into winning contention. He was on the radar as a sleeper in the 15th round, but we weren’t exactly sure how the former wideout would translate. He saw the third-highest targets at his position with 117 (24th overall among all players) and finished the season as TE2 in total TE-premium scoring. With a healthy Tyrell Williams and Hunter Renfrow back in the mix, we have to expect Waller’s usage to take a hit. Plus, his lack of touchdowns (3) is also of concern for a player with an ADP of 5.11.

Mike Gesicki on the other hand, is a tight end who presents value at his current ADP. Looking back, he was 16th-round shot in the dark last year after a rough rookie campaign on a brutal Miami offense. He ended up finding success in Chan Galey’s shotgun-heavy game scripts and should have the edge on targets after Devante Parker and Preston Williams this season. He had four touchdowns over the last six weeks, and could be in for that third-year leap we saw from Kittle. Gesicki is an early-14th rounder who could crack the top 10 in 2020.

Gerald Everett and Will Dissly are the final two among the top 12 in win rate percentage and were taken in rounds 18 and 23, respectively. They both found success for their drafters last season, based on high volume in short spurts. In best-ball formats, it’s highly advantageous to have weeks with larger spikes in production as opposed to steady output, to set your team apart.

Both of these tight ends were limited in contests in 2019, but made the most of their playing time. Everett was TE9 through the first seven games, including a seven-catch, 136-yard performance in Week 5 before he was Wally Pipped by Tyler Higbee down the stretch due to a knee injury.

Dissly being on 10.5% on winning FFPC teams is pretty interesting considering he only hit the field for six contests in 2019. He saw 27 targets in that time frame - the 12th-highest among tight ends - which he translated to a line of 23-262-4. Now healthy after Achilles surgery back in November, Dissly should be used in plenty of two-tight end sets with Greg Olsen, leaving both of them as nothing more than late-round pin the tail on the donkey-like picks.

Favorite Late-Round Picks: Jonnu Smith (14.12), Jack Doyle (15.07), Blake Jarwin (15.05), Irv Smith Jr. (16.11)

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