The Rundown: Week 4 Stats to Know & Eagles vs Packers

Sep 25, 2019
The Rundown: Week 4 Stats to Know & Eagles vs Packers

An explosive debut for a rookie quarterback, a pair of cornerstone fantasy starters were injured, and the awakening of several key running backs highlighted the Week 3 slate. Heading into Week 4, there are major questions around injury recovery and fantasy teams are now taking shape into contenders or pretenders. This will be a pivotal moment for teams to decide if they make a move to shore up their weakness or if they have to take a gamble to salvage the year and hope for lightning to strike.

Each week, I will provide a preview article with some key overall stats to watch for along with the Thursday game preview that includes start/sit ratings. Then, there will be subsequent previews later in the week with all the other games in time for the remaining fantasy decisions before kickoff. For much of this data, I will be using 4for4's Snaps, Touches, and Targets Apps as well as analyzing each team's pace and play-calling tendencies.

Ten Stats to Know for Week 4

  • Trailblazer: Dalvin Cook is the only non-quarterback who has exceeded 20 PPR points in all three games this year.
  • Hot Starts: Over the last two years, Patrick Mahomes has thrown 23 touchdowns to zero interceptions in the first three weeks of the year.
  • A Good First Impression: Daniel Jones’ 34.2 fantasy points ranks second all-time since the NFL merger for a quarterback making his first career start.
  • Sweet and Sour: Kyler Murray is on pace to break records in pass attempts (731) and sacks (85).
  • Modern Times: Nine of the top 50 PPR fantasy starts have occurred in the last two years, including four this year. Keenan Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Dak Prescott. All are 27 or younger in age.
  • Catch Me If You Can: Only two players have double-digit receptions in more than one game; Michael Thomas and Tyler Lockett.
  • Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop: Three teams have allowed five different non-quarterbacks to score 20 or more fantasy points against them. The Cardinals, Browns, and Dolphins.
  • Loose Ends: All three tight ends to face the Cardinals have scored 25 or more fantasy points. TJ Hockenson (25.1), Mark Andrews (25.2), and Greg Olsen (25.5).
  • Signal Baller: Six quarterbacks have scored over 30 fantasy points in a game this year. Two have done it against the Saints. Deshaun Watson (30.7) and Russell Wilson (41.3).
  • Driving Hard: The Ravens and Cowboys are the only two teams averaging over 50 yards per possession. They are also first and second in touchdown rate at 50% and 48.1% respectively.

Eagles @ Packers

Spread: Packers -5 | Total: 45

The Eagles have struggled this season on offense with injuries and it has made it difficult to find continuity. The top two wide receivers in snap share have changed every week so far and no running back is averaging more than 35 yards per game rushing. The Packers, meanwhile, have relied on defense to start the season with three wins with the offense ranking 28th in offensive yardage. Both the pass and run game are bottom 10 in yardage with bottom five ranks in plays and yards per drive. It will be tough for either team to suddenly explode on offense and it could become more of a defensive battle than anyone expected coming into the year.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles will likely look to rush the football against a penetrable run defense. The Packers are bottom 10 in most defensive rushing categories, however, so is the Eagles run offense. This could be the game to get on track or the one to confirm that it’s another lost season. As for the passing game, Wentz goes up against what has been a top-five pass defense. But, they have only faced Mitchell Trubisky, Kirk Cousins, and Joe Flacco thus far. This will be a good proving ground for both sides.

Team Trends That Matter

  • Only team to allow four different wide receivers to score 20-plus PPR points in 2019.
  • No running back has managed 50 rushing yards against the Eagles so far.
  • One of two teams who has seen three different wide receivers hit 20 PPR points in a game this year.

Fantasy Rating and a Stat to Know

  • QB Carson Wentz (2) - One of seven quarterbacks with multiple 20 point fantasy games this year
  • RB Miles Sanders (2) - Three straight games of 12 or more total touches despite snap share declining each week from 48% to 34% last game
  • RB Jordan Howard (1) - Has never averaged less than 15 rushes per game in a season. Is currently at 8.3 for 2019
  • WR Nelson Agholor (1) - One of only 13 players with 20 or more targets over the last two weeks
  • WR Mack Hollins (0) - Has only been off the field for 13 snaps the past two weeks after not playing in Week 1
  • WR Alshon Jeffery (0) - All six Eagles passing touchdowns have gone to wide receivers. Also questionable to play
  • TE Zach Ertz (5) - One of five tight ends with greater than a 90% snap share this season. He hasn’t left the field for an offensive snap since Week 1
  • TE Dallas Goedert (0) - No tight end has reached five PPR points against the Packers this year

Green Bay Packers

The Eagles have been good at stopping the run thus far but are bottom five in passing yards allowed with seven of eight touchdowns coming through the air. This should be a positive sign for Aaron Rodgers and this receiving group to get on track with a good game. Davante Adams could be in line for a big fantasy performance, in particular, knowing how Philly has struggled against top options. The running game will need to vulture some touchdowns to provide any value.

Team Trends That Matter

  • One of two teams allowing fewer than one point per drive this season.
  • No fantasy quarterback has scored more than nine points against the Packers in 2019.
  • Back to back games with the opposing fantasy running back exceeding 28 PPR points.

Fantasy Rating and a Stat to Know

  • QB Aaron Rodgers (3) - Has managed over 300 passing yards and multiple touchdown passes in both career games against Philadelphia
  • RB Aaron Jones (3) - Three straight weeks of declining snap share from 59% to 39%
  • RB Jamaal Williams (1) - Has seen a higher-touch count (from seven to 14) and snap share (41% to 61%) in the last three weeks
  • WR Davante Adams (5) - Had four games in 2018 without a receiving touchdown. He hasn’t scored one in three games so far in 2019
  • WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (2) - Week 3 was the first time a wide receiver not named Davante Adams had 10 or more targets since week 5 in 2018, also Valdes-Scantling
  • TE Jimmy Graham (1) - Second straight zero catch game. Only other time this happened was Week 2 and 3 of 2010, his rookie year

Fantasy Rating Key

  • (5) - Elite option. Must start.
  • (4) - Strong option. Likely start.
  • (3) - Good option. Low-end starter to high-end backup.
  • (2) - Weak option. Possible flex or desperation play.
  • (1) - Bad option. Bench in nearly all cases.
  • (0) - Not an option. Injured, bench, or waivers.