Jared Goff is an Underrated Quarterback Value in Fantasy Drafts ... Once Again

On the one hand, it feels like everybody that plays fantasy football knows who Jared Goff is: he's the always good, never quite elite, fringe QB1 who no one's frantic to draft but rarely disappoints. Right? Well, on the other hand, no. He's been a top-10 fantasy quarterback for four straight seasons and has logged the fifth-most games with 20+ fantasy points over that span. And yet, once again, he's the QB16 in 4for4's multi-side ADP.

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What gives? Does Goff deserve more respect in the fantasy community and in your drafts?

Let's find out.

Mr. Consistent(ly Great)

The drumbeat with Goff is that he's consistently good, but never exactly great. And there is some truth to that concept. He's never finished higher than QB6 in a season. He's never thrown 40 touchdown passes and has never even sniffed 300 or 400 rushing yards (with a career high of 108 back in 2018). If we're talking about the "elite tier" -- guys like Josh Allen, Drake Maye, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, even Joe Burrow -- they're all going to be threats for one or both of those ceilings.

So, fair enough, Goff isn't cracking the top five. But after that tier ... he might be the most consistently great QB in fantasy. Goff, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts are the only quarterbacks to finish top 10 each of the last four seasons. As I mentioned in the intro, Goff's fifth over that span in 20-point fantasy games with 25, behind only Allen, Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes. Burrow has two fewer games, Dak Prescott has three fewer, Justin Herbert has four fewer, and the list goes on. A 20-point outing is essentially a guaranteed QB1 most weeks, so that means Goff is putting up QB1 performances at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Also, to the "no upside" crowd, his place on the list remains the exact same if you ratchet it up to 25-point games (fifth with 15) and only drops to sixth behind Burrow in 30-point games (five).

Obviously, these numbers have a lot to do with arguably Goff's best ability: availability. He's the only quarterback to play all 68 games over the past four seasons, and the only one to play all 64 games if you exclude Week 18. And he doesn't bust often either. Ignoring Week 18 contests, Goff scores single-digit fantasy points in just 14.0% of his games, a lower rate than Burrow (16.7%), Brock Purdy (17.0%), or Matthew Stafford (19.6%).

But, Okada, what about the home/road splits? Good point, reader. Goff has famously been much worse on the road than he has been at home. Having said that, he's cleaned up his road play in recent years, as you can see below.

Still, even since 2024, he's the QB4 in points per game at home (20.18) but the QB15 in points per game on the road (16.36). You could certainly view this as a detriment -- most of his duds come at home and his ceiling seems notably lowered. But you could also view it as an opportunity: if you find a solid duo to pair with Goff or stream an alternate during some of his tougher road matchups, you could cobble together an absolute stud of a fantasy quarterback.

Changes & Expectations in 2026

Alright so, historically, Goff has been underrated and might belong much closer to an ADP around QB6 than QB16. But what about 2026? Things change in the NFL, maybe he'll regress?

Mayyyybe.

Let's start with the offensive line. It has seen some change this offseason, with left tackle Taylor Decker departing, Penei Sewell switching to that spot, first-round rookie Blake Miller slotting in at right tackle, and a new center in Cade Mays (or Juice Scruggs). It's likely a step back overall -- they dropped to 18th in Justin Edwards' O-line rankings and 19th in John Paulsen's -- but they've earned higher marks elsewhere and weren't quite elite last season either. Still, given Goff's lack of mobility, struggles on the line could translate to lower efficiency.

But there are a couple potential counterweights. First, the departure of David Montgomery. Jahmyr Gibbs and Isiah Pacheco should make up most of his missing volume, but it's possible Detroit throws a little more without their tried-and-true "Knuckles." More importantly, Montgomery scored 33 rushing touchdowns over three years with the Lions (eighth-most in that span), including 25 in goal-to-go situations (tied for fifth-most). His absence is very likely to result in a few extra touchdowns for Goff in that region.

And then there's the defense. They struggled a bit last year after the departure of DC Aaron Glenn. Then they lost a number of notable defensive assets in the early spring. Currently, their secondary is riddled with question marks, with safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph injured and CB Terrion Arnold released for off-the-field issues. I think it's possible the defense struggles in 2026 and Goff is forced to throw more to keep up.

The Value Proposition

Ultimately, the outlook with Goff comes down to draft value versus projected production. As I mentioned earlier, he's going as the QB16 in our aggregated ADP, somewhere around the 10th round. In his draft notes on Goff, John Paulsen highlighted his QB16 ADP against his recent QB1 finishes and concluded, "That's a massive disconnect." I agree. I'd be fine rolling with Goff weekly, but given the draft value, you can also pair him with another double-digit-round quarterback and stream between the two for maximum profits. Some potentially excellent (and cheap) options for Goff's toughest road games: Jordan Love, Tyler Shough, C.J. Stroud, and (crazy as it might sound) Deshaun Watson/Shedeur Sanders.

The Bottom Line

• Jared Goff has been and should remain one of the most reliable low-end QB1s in all of fantasy football, with consistent production buoyed by underrated upside.
• Goff could lose some efficiency with 2026 downgrades to the Detroit offensive line, but also has a chance to make up for it with increased volume and touchdown production.
• If necessary, in 1QB leagues, you can also pair Goff with a streamer-level quarterback to play in Goff's more difficult road matchups (where he tends to lose a few points per game).
• According to 4for4's Multi-Site ADP, Goff has an ADP of 112 overall and is QB16. As always, he's undervalued in fantasy drafts due to a lack of the "sexy factor" or elite-tier upside, but should be an excellent value pickup once again.